Search results for "Forecast"
showing 10 items of 417 documents
Wind Speed Forecasting
2009
This paper aims at providing a general class of stochastic models for hourly average wind speed time series taking into account all the main features of wind speed data, namely autocorrelation, non-Gaussian distribution, seasonal and diurnal nonstationarity. It will be shown that the methodology developed in this study, tested using the data recorded in two sites of Italy, attains valuable results in terms both of modelling and forecasting.
Stochastic models for wind speed time series: a case study
2010
The effectiveness of the autoregressive models in forecasting the agricultural prices in Poland
2010
The forecast of agricultural prices is one of the most important factors in making decision on production farms. The appropriate forecast allows for limiting the risk connected with one’s economic activity. In this study autoregressive models have been used, which helped to determine the price forecast for agricultural products in the purchasing centers in the second half of 2010. To determine the quality of forecast the average ex-post errors of the past forecasts have been used. The achieved results show that autoregressive models are an effective tool in forecasting the agricultural prices in Poland.
The dynamics over the next few years of the Spanish mobile telecommunications market share: a mathematical modelling approach
2013
Taking into account available data from 2002 to 2009 about the market share percentages of the Spanish mobile telecommunications service providers, a dynamic diffusion model to study the evolution of the clients’ change between the different companies during the period 2010–2016 is proposed. The constructed model provides a tool for forecasting short-term trends about the customers’ preferences with respect to mobile network operators taking into account both, autonomous decisions due to direct marketing and advertising strategies, and also decisions adopted through interaction via social influence. The model can provide insights to companies for designing strategies in order to gain market…
Empirical analysis of daily cash flow time-series and its implications for forecasting
2019
Usual assumptions on the statistical properties of daily net cash flows include normality, absence of correlation and stationarity. We provide a comprehensive study based on a real-world cash flow data set showing that: (i) the usual assumption of normality, absence of correlation and stationarity hardly appear; (ii) non-linearity is often relevant for forecasting; and (iii) typical data transformations have little impact on linearity and normality. This evidence may lead to consider a more data-driven approach such as time-series forecasting in an attempt to provide cash managers with expert systems in cash management.
Development of Neural Network Prediction Models for the Energy Producibility of a Parabolic Dish: A Comparison with the Analytical Approach
2022
Solar energy is one of the most widely exploited renewable/sustainable resources for electricity generation, with photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies at the forefront of research. This study focuses on the development of a neural network prediction model aimed at assessing the energy producibility of dish–Stirling systems, testing the methodology and offering a useful tool to support the design and sizing phases of the system at different installation sites. Employing the open-source platform TensorFlow, two different classes of feedforward neural networks were developed and validated (multilayer perceptron and radial basis function). The absolute novelty of this approac…
Sobre substitució lingüística i autòmats cel.lulars (SLAC): decurs de la investigació
2010
Hem optat per focalitzar la nostra investigació, tot i l'ampla aplicabilitat de la recerca, en la detecció del futur de la nostra llengua a partir dels pressupòsits de la Psicologia Social Computacional. I això mitjançant la utilització de la simulació informàtica, basada en els autòmats cel·lulars, que ha donat els primers resultats que presentem i explicitem en la nostra aportació a l'ANUARI. Així, hi abordem el futur de la llengua pròpia a partir de la conducta referida als parlants del País Valencià i amb la intenció d'esbrinar la reversió de la substitució lingüística.
Horizon 2000 : prévisions des dépenses d'éducation primaire dans les pays en développement
1990
The aim of the present article is to provide a statistical assessmentof the amount of public money developing countries will nedd to spend in order to meet the estimated demand for primary education in the year 2000 and to evaluate the cost of providing universal primary education by that date.
Earnings management to exceed thresholds in continental and Anglo-Saxon accounting models: The British and French cases
2017
International audience; The purpose of this paper is to compare the extent to which French and British firms manage their earnings in order to avoid losses, decreases in earnings and earnings below the forecasts of analysts. Further, this study aims to investigate the factors that potentially influence earnings management to exceed thresholds with reference to the Anglo-Saxon and continental accounting models. Britain and France, correspondingly, belong to those different socio-economic environments. Based on a panel data of 1771 French and 2057 British firm-year observations during the period 2002–2012, we show that all firms considered manage earnings to beat zero and last year’s earnings…
Nodarbinātības prognozēšana, izmantojot ekonomiko ziņu noskaņojumu
2021
Maģistra darbs pielieto ekonomisko ziņu noskaņojuma indeksu, lai atrisinātu paradoksu starp nepieciešamību pēc biežākām makroekonomisko prognožu atjauninājumiem un nepietiekamu attiecīgo rādītāju atjaunošanas biežumu. Izmantojot modernākas datu zinātnes metodes, tika iegūts ikdienu ziņu noskaņojuma indekss, lai izpētītu, vai ziņu noskaņojums ir piemērots, prognozējot nodarbinātības dinamiku Dānijā, un uzlabotu prognozes precizitāti modelī. Analīze rāda, ka pastāv statistiska saistība starp nodarbinātības dinamiku un ziņu noskaņojumu, un ka noskaņojuma rādītāju izmantošana var palielināt nodarbinātības datu prognozēšanas precizitāti īsos prognozēšanas periodos.