Search results for "Forecast"
showing 10 items of 417 documents
Sensitivity of a mesoscale model to different convective parameterization schemes in a heavy rain event
2011
Abstract. The Valencia region, on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, is propitious to heavy precipitation, especially the area encompassing the South of Valencia province and the North of the Alicante province. In October 2007 a torrential rain affected the aforementioned area, producing accumulated rainfall values greater than 400 mm in less than 24 h and flash-floods that caused extensive economic losses and human casualties. This rain event has been studied in numerical experiments using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. The present paper deals with the effect of using the different convective parameterizations (CP) currently implemented in the Regional Atmospheric…
Potential of historical meteorological and hydrological data for the reconstruction of historical flood events – the example of the 1882 flood in sou…
2009
Abstract. This paper presents a hydrometeorological reconstruction of the flood triggering meteorological situation and the simulation of discharges of the flood event of December 1882 in the Neckar catchment in Baden-Württemberg (southwest Germany). The course of the 1882 flood event in the Neckar catchment in southwest Germany and the weather conditions which led to this flood were reconstructed by evaluating the information from various historical sources. From these historical data, daily input data sets were derived for run-off modeling. For the determination of the precipitation pattern at the end of December 1882, the sparse historical data were modified by using a similar modern day…
Species distributions models may predict accurately future distributions but poorly how distributions change: A critical perspective on model validat…
2023
Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to make predictions on how species distributions may change as a response to climatic change. To assess the reliability of those predictions, they need to be critically validated with respect to what they are used for. While ecologists are typically interested in how and where distributions will change, we argue that SDMs have seldom been evaluated in terms of their capacity to predict such change. Instead, typical retrospective validation methods estimate model's ability to predict to only one static time in future. Here, we apply two validation methods, one that predicts and evaluates a static pattern, while the other measures change…
Prediction and interpolation of time series by state space models
2015
Artikkeliväitöskirja. Sisältää yhteenveto-osan ja neljä artikkelia. Article dissertation. Contains an introduction part and four articles. A large amount of data collected today is in the form of a time series. In order to make realistic inferences based on time series forecasts, in addition to point predictions, prediction intervals or other measures of uncertainty should be presented. Multiple sources of uncertainty are often ignored due to the complexities involved in accounting them correctly. In this dissertation, some of these problems are reviewed and some new solutions are presented. A state space approach is also advocated for an e cient and exible framework for time series forecas…
Analysis of Relationship between Net Wage and Consumer Price Index
2013
Abstract In the present paper is presented an econometric analysis of the relationship between net salary and consumer price index. After a brief historical overview will be review the calculating statistics for selected variables and coefficients and will be presented the obtained values. We will study the relationship between variables. It will be realized the cloud of points and will be applied Fisher test. The intensity of selected variables will be study too and some forms of relationship between the two chose variables will be done. Student test is applied. It will be performed the parameter estimation for regression functions and Akaike's criterion will be applied. The homoscedastici…
Should Contact Bans Have Been Lifted More in Germany?
2020
Abstract Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of Covid-19 if RSC had been upheld after 20 April. We employ these findings and feed them into our theoretical model. We find that the peak of the number of sick individuals would have been reached already end of April. The number of sick individuals would have fallen below 1000 at the beginning of July. If restrictions had been lifted completely on April 20, the number of sick should have risen quickly again from around 27 April. A balance between economic and individual costs of RSC and…
The impact of psychopharmacology on contemporary clinical psychiatry.
2014
Clinical psychiatric evaluations of patients have changed dramatically in recent decades. Both initial assessments and follow-up visits have become brief and superficial, focused on searching for categorical diagnostic criteria from checklists, with limited inquiry into patient-reported symptomatic status and tolerability of treatments. The virtually exclusive therapeutic task has become selecting a plausible psychotropic, usually based on expert consensus guidelines. These guidelines and practice patterns rest mainly on published monotherapy trials that may or may not be applicable to particular patients but are having a profound impact, not only on modern psychiatric practice but also on…
Role of Nitrates for the Therapy of Coronary Artery Disease Patients in the Years beyond 2000
1999
Vasodilator therapy with nitrates has been used for almost a century to bring relief to patients suffering from angina. The acute anti-ischemic effects of nitro-vasodilators for the treatment and prevention of anginal attacks is unquestioned. In addition, nitrates are administered in order to reduce symptomatic and silent ischemic episodes, in patients with proven coronary heart disease who exert ST segment alterations on Holter monitoring. The reduction in total ischemic burden may result in an improved prognosis with regard to infarct prevention and possible prevention of deterioration of left ventricular function due to repetitive episodes of myocardial ischemia. In patients with unstabl…
Pulmonary embolism hotline 2012. Recent and expected trials.
2012
SummaryManagement of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) has advanced considerably in the past year, and progress is expected to continue in 2013. To help determine the optimal management strategy for normotensive patients with intermediate-risk PE, the Pulmonary Embolism Thrombolysis (PEITHO) study completed enrolment of 1006 patients with evidence of right ventricular dysfunction (by echocardiography or computed tomography) plus a positive troponin test. Patients have been randomised to thrombolytic treatment with tenecteplase versus placebo, and the effects on clinical end points (death or haemodynamic collapse) assessed at 7 and 30 days. The results are expected in spring 2013; long-term foll…