Search results for "Forecasting"
showing 10 items of 329 documents
Durability of open popliteal artery aneurysm repair
2014
Objective The objective of this study was to analyze our long-term results after open surgery for popliteal artery aneurysm. Methods Records of patients who received surgery between 1998 and 2010 were retrieved from a computerized database and analyzed retrospectively. End points of the study were perioperative mortality and morbidity and patency and limb salvage rate. Results Two hundred and six popliteal aneurysms (median diameter, 30 mm; interquartile range, 18 mm) were treated (161 elective, 45 emergent) in 154 patients (mean age, 67 ± 11 years) using vein grafts (82%) via the medial approach (92%). Above-knee popliteal artery (45%) and below-knee popliteal artery (65%) were the predomi…
Presentation, Management and Long-Term Outcome of Ureteropelvic Junction Obstruction in Duplex Kidneys.
2015
Ureteropelvic junction obstruction in association with a duplex collecting system is a rare but challenging upper urinary tract pathology. We report our 21-year experience with this anomaly in terms of presentation, diagnostic evaluation and management.We retrospectively identified all patients with ureteropelvic junction obstruction in a duplex collecting system between 1991 and 2012. We reviewed each case for presenting symptoms, anatomy and management. Median followup was 10.8 years (range 2 to 22).Ureteropelvic junction obstruction in duplex kidneys was diagnosed in 21 patients. Ten patients presented with clinical symptoms such as flank pain and urinary tract infection but 11 were asym…
Validity of the study of sentinel lymph nodes in the treatment of breast carcinoma.
2004
Since it was introduced in the 1990s, axillary sentinel lymph-node biopsy has been rapidly and widely adopted to avoid complete axillary dissection (though this is still the standard procedure). The aims of the study were two-fold: (i) to determine the value of different techniques of sentinel lymph-node identification and (ii) to verify the predictive value of such procedures through histological examination of the sentinel lymph node and axillary dissection in the same patients. Both sentinel lymph-node biopsy and axillary dissection were performed in 230 patients with T1 and T2 (< 3 cm) carcinoma of the breast. Preoperative lymphoscintigraphy was able to identify the sentinel lymph node …
Political issues in internal medicine in Europe. A position paper
2004
Abstract What will be the future of internal medicine in Europe? Because of rapidly growing concerns regarding the position of internal medicine in many European countries, the European Federation of Internal Medicine (EFIM) has established a working group to analyze the situation. Being well aware of the variation in working practices in the different countries, the members of the group used an “all-European” approach to answer the following questions: • Are there problems for internal medicine? If so, what are these problems and why? • Why do the health care systems in the European countries need internal medicine? • Why do patients need internal medicine? • What needs to be done? Interna…
Multi-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: current status and outlook
2017
"Çalışmada 29 yazar bulunmaktadır. Bu yazarlardan sadece Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi mensuplarının girişleri yapılmıştır” The paper presents the first modelling experiment of the European-scale olive pollen dispersion, analyses the quality of the predictions, and outlines the research needs. A 6-model strong ensemble of Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) was run throughout the olive season of 2014, computing the olive pollen distribution. The simulations have been compared with observations in eight countries, which are members of the European Aeroallergen Network (EAN). Analysis was performed for individual models, the ensemble mean and median, and for a dynamically optimised c…
FISSIT (Fistula Surgery in Italy) study: A retrospective survey on the surgical management of anal fistulas in Italy over the last 15 years
2021
Background: Surgical treatment of anal fistulas is still a challenge. The aims of this study were to evaluate the adoption and healing rates for the different surgical techniques used in Italy over the past 15 years. Methods: This was a multicenter retrospective observational study of patients affected by simple and complex anal fistulas of cryptoglandular origin who were surgically treated in the period 2003–2017. Surgical techniques were grouped as sphincter-cutting or sphincter-sparing and as technology-assisted or techno-free. All patients included in the study were followed for at least 12 months. Results: A total of 9,536 patients (5,520 simple; 4,016 complex fistulas) entered the stu…
Cyclooxygenase inhibitors – current status and future prospects
2001
Prostaglandins are formed from arachidonic acid by the action of cyclooxygenase and subsequent downstream synthetases. Two closely related forms of the cyclooxygenase have been identified which are now known as COX-1 and COX-2. Both isoenzymes transform arachidonic acid to prostaglandins, but differ in their distribution and their physiological roles. Meanwhile, the responsible genes and their regulation have been clarified. COX-1, the pre-dominantly constitutive form of the enzyme, is expressed throughout the body and performs a number of homeostatic functions such as maintaining normal gastric mucosa and influencing renal blood flow and platelet aggregation. In contrast, the inducible for…
Modelling the dynamics of the students’ academic performance in the German region of the North Rhine-Westphalia: an epidemiological approach with unc…
2013
Student academic underachievement is a concern of paramount importance in Europe, where around 15% of the students in the last high school courses do not achieve the minimum knowledge academic requirement. In this paper, we propose a model based on a system of differential equations to study the dynamics of the students academic performance in the German region of North Rhine-Westphalia. This approach is supported by the idea that both, good and bad study habits, are a mixture of personal decisions and influence of classmates. This model allows us to forecast the student academic performance by means of confidence intervals over the next few years.
A new approach to portfolio selection based on forecasting
2023
In this paper we analyze the portfolio selection problem from a novel perspective based on the analysis and prediction of the time series corresponding to the portfolio’s value. Namely, we define the value of a particular portfolio at the time of its acquisition. Using the time series of historical prices of the different financial assets, we calculate backward the value that said portfolio would have had in past time periods. A damped trend model is then used to analyze this time series and to predict the future values of the portfolio, providing estimates of the mean and variance for different forecasting horizons. These measures are used to formulate the portfolio selection problem, whic…
Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization With Genetic Algorithm to Train Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Load Forecasting
2019
This research proposes a new training algorithm for artificial neural networks (ANNs) to improve the short-term load forecasting (STLF) performance. The proposed algorithm overcomes the so-called training issue in ANNs, where it traps in local minima, by applying genetic algorithm operations in particle swarm optimization when it converges to local minima. The training ability of the hybridized training algorithm is evaluated using load data gathered by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand. The ANN is trained using the new training algorithm with one-year data to forecast equal 48 periods of each day in 2013. During the testing phase, a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is used …