Search results for "GDP"
showing 10 items of 81 documents
Public debt, money and consumer prices: a vector error correction model for Germany
2015
In the paper, the authors analyse the interaction between public debt and inflation including the mutual impulse response. The European sovereign debt crisis brought once again a focus onto the consequences of government debt in combination with an expansionary monetary policy for the development of consumer prices. Public deficits can lead to higher inflation rates if the money supply is expansionary. The high level of national debt, not only in the Euro-crisis countries, and the strong increase in the total assets of the European Central Bank, as a result of the unconventional monetary policy, have caused fears of inflating government debt. The transmission from public debt to inflation t…
New paradigm of ICT productivity – Increasing role of un-captured GDP and growing anger of consumers
2015
Abstract The dramatic advancement of the Internet has led all nations to an information communication technology (ICT) driven development trajectory. This trajectory has resulted in bi-polarization between ICT growing economies and ICT advanced economies. While the former enjoys a virtuous cycle between ICT advancement and productivity increase, the later has fallen into a trap of a vicious cycle between ICT advancement and productivity decrease. This paper identifies that this trap can be attributed to the two-faced nature of ICT in which advancement of ICT contributes to price increases due to functionality development while dramatic advancement of the Internet has resulted in price decre…
Risk Profiles for Re-Profiling the Sovereign Debt of Crisis Countries
2014
This paper uses a risk-management approach to re-profile the sovereign debt of countries facing debt crises. Using scenario analysis we develop a risk measure of the sovereign's debt -- Conditional Debt-at-Risk -- and an optimization model is used to trace risk profiles that tradeoff expected cost of debt financing against the Conditional Debt-at-Risk. The risk profiles are particularly informative for crisis countries, as they allow us to identify, with high-probability, debt unsustainability. We develop risk profiles for two Eurozone countries with excessive debt, Cyprus and Italy, both in their current form and under various forms of restructuring or rescheduling, and show how to assess …
SECULAR MEAN REVERSION AND LONG-RUN PREDICTABILITY OF THE STOCK MARKET
2016
Empirical financial literature documents the evidence of mean reversion in stock prices and the absence of out-of-sample return predictability over periods shorter than 10 years. The goal of this paper is to test the random walk hypothesis in stock prices and return predictability over periods longer than 10 years. Specifically, using 141 years of data, this paper begins by performing formal tests of the random walk hypothesis in the prices of the real S&P Composite Index over increasing time horizons up to 40 years. Even though our results cannot support the conventional wisdom which says that the stock market is safer for long-term investors, our findings speak in favor of the mean revers…
Determinants of sub-central European government debt
2017
Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyze the determinants of sub-central government debt in Europe (Italy, France, Austria, Germany, Belgium and Spain) through estimation for each State based on corresponding panel data from 1996 to 2010. Furthermore, we estimate the debt model using a joint sample, consolidating conclusions on the most influential variables in terms of public debt. A comparative analysis of institutional frameworks in Europe shows that relationships between central and sub-central tax authorities have common traits, although the extent of change in each country remains unknown. In sum, this study shows that sub-sovereign government budgets are counter-cyclical, that ec…
Financial stress and sovereign debt composition
2015
"Published online: 19 Oct 2015"
An entropy-based machine learning algorithm for combining macroeconomic forecasts
2019
This paper applies a Machine Learning approach with the aim of providing a single aggregated prediction from a set of individual predictions. Departing from the well-known maximum-entropy inference methodology, a new factor capturing the distance between the true and the estimated aggregated predictions presents a new problem. Algorithms such as ridge, lasso or elastic net help in finding a new methodology to tackle this issue. We carry out a simulation study to evaluate the performance of such a procedure and apply it in order to forecast and measure predictive ability using a dataset of predictions on Spanish gross domestic product.
Higher education impact on human development : A case study from Pakistan
2017
Master's thesis Development management UT503 - University of Agder 2017 Higher education is considered as an essential part of the human development process of the country. In this context, the objective of this study is to explore the returns of higher education on human development indicators and as well as examine the impact of human development on higher education in Pakistan from the period of the 1984 to 2014. For estimation, correlation analysis and regression analysis has been used to investigate the association between Variables. The main purpose of the study is to identify the link between higher education and the three most important human development indicators, such as GDP, emp…
Co-evolution between trust in teachers and higher education toward digitally-rich learning environments
2017
Based on a powerful notion that the quality of higher education is crucial for innovation in digital economy and that such quality is subject to a conception of trust in teachers to deliver good education and advancement of information and communication technology (ICT), the dynamism of co-evolution between them was analyzed. Using a unique dataset representing the above system consisting of the rate of trust in teachers providing good education in the context of quality of education and their social status, of the level of higher education and the state of ICT advancement toward digitally-rich learning environments, an empirical numerical analysis of 20 countries was attempted. These count…
On the Relevance of Agency Conflicts in SME Debt Maturity Structure
2015
Previous theoretical research asserts that an optimal policy of debt maturity structure mitigates the various agency conflicts that arise through debt contracts. We test this hypothesis on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs), which are very sensitive to agency problems. Such problems mainly arise between owners and debt providers, due to SMEs recording high growth and having few fixed assets and informational asymmetry. We provide evidence on the relevant effect of underinvestment, asset substitution, and overinvestment problems on SME debt structure. Results appear to be robust to both the endogeneity problem of explanatory variables and the censored dependent variable.