Search results for "INFERENCE"
showing 10 items of 478 documents
Probabilistic inference and syllogisms
2014
Traditionally, syllogisms are arguments with two premises and one conclusion which are constructed by propositions of the form “All S are P ” and “At least one S is P ” and their respective negated versions. We will discuss probabilistic notions of the existential import and the basic sentences type. We will develop an intuitively plausible version of the syllogisms that is able to deal with uncertainty, exceptions and nonmonotonicity. We will develop a new semantics for categorical syllogisms that is based on subjective probability. Specifically, we propose de Finetti’s principle of coherence and its generalization to lower and upper conditional probabilities as the fundamental corner ston…
Application of Inverse-Probability-of-Treatment Weighting to Estimate the Effect of Daytime Sleepiness in Obstructive sleep apnea patients
2022
Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), the first line therapy for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), is considered effective in reducing daytime sleepiness. Its efficacy relies on adequate adherence, often defined as >4 hours per night. However, this binary threshold may limit our understanding of the causal effect of CPAP adherence and daytime sleepiness and multilevel approach for CPAP adherence can be more appropriate.
A Generalized Missing-Indicator Approach to Regression with Imputed Covariates
2011
We consider estimation of a linear regression model using data where some covariate values are missing but imputations are available to fill in the missing values. This situation generates a tradeoff between bias and precision when estimating the regression parameters of interest. Using only the subsample of complete observations does not cause bias but may imply a substantial loss of precision because the complete cases may be too few. On the other hand, filling in the missing values with imputations may cause bias. We provide the new Stata command gmi, which handles such tradeoff by using either model reduction or Bayesian model averaging techniques in the context of the generalized miss…
Weighted-Average Least Squares (WALS): Confidence and Prediction Intervals
2022
We extend the results of De Luca et al. (2021) to inference for linear regression models based on weighted-average least squares (WALS), a frequentist model averaging approach with a Bayesian flavor. We concentrate on inference about a single focus parameter, interpreted as the causal effect of a policy or intervention, in the presence of a potentially large number of auxiliary parameters representing the nuisance component of the model. In our Monte Carlo simulations we compare the performance of WALS with that of several competing estimators, including the unrestricted least-squares estimator (with all auxiliary regressors) and the restricted least-squares estimator (with no auxiliary reg…
Dynamic network identification from non-stationary vector autoregressive time series
2018
Learning the dynamics of complex systems features a large number of applications in data science. Graph-based modeling and inference underpins the most prominent family of approaches to learn complex dynamics due to their ability to capture the intrinsic sparsity of direct interactions in such systems. They also provide the user with interpretable graphs that unveil behavioral patterns and changes. To cope with the time-varying nature of interactions, this paper develops an estimation criterion and a solver to learn the parameters of a time-varying vector autoregressive model supported on a network of time series. The notion of local breakpoint is proposed to accommodate changes at individu…
Causal inference in geosciences with kernel sensitivity maps
2020
Establishing causal relations between random variables from observational data is perhaps the most important challenge in today's Science. In remote sensing and geosciences this is of special relevance to better understand the Earth's system and the complex and elusive interactions between processes. In this paper we explore a framework to derive cause-effect relations from pairs of variables via regression and dependence estimation. We propose to focus on the sensitivity (curvature) of the dependence estimator to account for the asymmetry of the forward and inverse densities of approximation residuals. Results in a large collection of 28 geoscience causal inference problems demonstrate the…
Inference of Spatio-Temporal Functions over Graphs via Multi-Kernel Kriged Kalman Filtering
2018
Inference of space-time varying signals on graphs emerges naturally in a plethora of network science related applications. A frequently encountered challenge pertains to reconstructing such dynamic processes, given their values over a subset of vertices and time instants. The present paper develops a graph-aware kernel-based kriged Kalman filter that accounts for the spatio-temporal variations, and offers efficient online reconstruction, even for dynamically evolving network topologies. The kernel-based learning framework bypasses the need for statistical information by capitalizing on the smoothness that graph signals exhibit with respect to the underlying graph. To address the challenge o…
Causal Inference in Geoscience and Remote Sensing From Observational Data
2020
Establishing causal relations between random variables from observational data is perhaps the most important challenge in today’s science. In remote sensing and geosciences, this is of special relevance to better understand the earth’s system and the complex interactions between the governing processes. In this paper, we focus on an observational causal inference, and thus, we try to estimate the correct direction of causation using a finite set of empirical data. In addition, we focus on the more complex bivariate scenario that requires strong assumptions and no conditional independence tests can be used. In particular, we explore the framework of (nondeterministic) additive noise models, …
Online Non-linear Topology Identification from Graph-connected Time Series
2021
Estimating the unknown causal dependencies among graph-connected time series plays an important role in many applications, such as sensor network analysis, signal processing over cyber-physical systems, and finance engineering. Inference of such causal dependencies, often know as topology identification, is not well studied for non-linear non-stationary systems, and most of the existing methods are batch-based which are not capable of handling streaming sensor signals. In this paper, we propose an online kernel-based algorithm for topology estimation of non-linear vector autoregressive time series by solving a sparse online optimization framework using the composite objective mirror descent…
Aerial Spectrum Surveying: Radio Map Estimation with Autonomous UAVs
2020
Radio maps are emerging as a popular means to endow next-generation wireless communications with situational awareness. In particular, radio maps are expected to play a central role in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) communications since they can be used to determine interference or channel gain at a spatial location where a UAV has not been before. Existing methods for radio map estimation utilize measurements collected by sensors whose locations cannot be controlled. In contrast, this paper proposes a scheme in which a UAV collects measurements along a trajectory. This trajectory is designed to obtain accurate estimates of the target radio map in a short time operation. The route planning a…