Search results for "Inference"

Basic Statistical Techniques

2012

A Critical Review of Statistical Methods for Twin Studies Relating Exposure to Early Life Health Conditions

2021

International audience; When investigating disease etiology, twin data provide a unique opportunity to control for confounding and disentangling the role of the human genome and exposome. However, using appropriate statistical methods is fundamental for exploiting such potential. We aimed to critically review the statistical approaches used in twin studies relating exposure to early life health conditions. We searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Embase (2011–2021). We identified 32 studies and nine classes of methods. Five were conditional approaches (within-pair analyses): additive-common-erratic (ACE) models (11 studies), generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs, five studies), gene…

On the use of approximate Bayesian computation Markov chain Monte Carlo with inflated tolerance and post-correction

2020

Approximate Bayesian computation allows for inference of complicated probabilistic models with intractable likelihoods using model simulations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation of approximate Bayesian computation is often sensitive to the tolerance parameter: low tolerance leads to poor mixing and large tolerance entails excess bias. We consider an approach using a relatively large tolerance for the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler to ensure its sufficient mixing, and post-processing the output leading to estimators for a range of finer tolerances. We introduce an approximate confidence interval for the related post-corrected estimators, and propose an adaptive approximate Bayesi…

Extending the Tsetlin Machine With Integer-Weighted Clauses for Increased Interpretability

2020

Despite significant effort, building models that are both interpretable and accurate is an unresolved challenge for many pattern recognition problems. In general, rule-based and linear models lack accuracy, while deep learning interpretability is based on rough approximations of the underlying inference. Using a linear combination of conjunctive clauses in propositional logic, Tsetlin Machines (TMs) have shown competitive performance on diverse benchmarks. However, to do so, many clauses are needed, which impacts interpretability. Here, we address the accuracy-interpretability challenge in machine learning by equipping the TM clauses with integer weights. The resulting Integer Weighted TM (…

Simplifying Probabilistic Expressions in Causal Inference

2018

Obtaining a non-parametric expression for an interventional distribution is one of the most fundamental tasks in causal inference. Such an expression can be obtained for an identifiable causal effect by an algorithm or by manual application of do-calculus. Often we are left with a complicated expression which can lead to biased or inefficient estimates when missing data or measurement errors are involved. We present an automatic simplification algorithm that seeks to eliminate symbolically unnecessary variables from these expressions by taking advantage of the structure of the underlying graphical model. Our method is applicable to all causal effect formulas and is readily available in the …

A perspective on Gaussian processes for Earth observation

2019

Earth observation (EO) by airborne and satellite remote sensing and in-situ observations play a fundamental role in monitoring our planet. In the last decade, machine learning and Gaussian processes (GPs) in particular has attained outstanding results in the estimation of bio-geo-physical variables from the acquired images at local and global scales in a time-resolved manner. GPs provide not only accurate estimates but also principled uncertainty estimates for the predictions, can easily accommodate multimodal data coming from different sensors and from multitemporal acquisitions, allow the introduction of physical knowledge, and a formal treatment of uncertainty quantification and error pr…

Warped Gaussian Processes in Remote Sensing Parameter Estimation and Causal Inference

2018

This letter introduces warped Gaussian process (WGP) regression in remote sensing applications. WGP models output observations as a parametric nonlinear transformation of a GP. The parameters of such a prior model are then learned via standard maximum likelihood. We show the good performance of the proposed model for the estimation of oceanic chlorophyll content from multispectral data, vegetation parameters (chlorophyll, leaf area index, and fractional vegetation cover) from hyperspectral data, and in the detection of the causal direction in a collection of 28 bivariate geoscience and remote sensing causal problems. The model consistently performs better than the standard GP and the more a…

Deep Importance Sampling based on Regression for Model Inversion and Emulation

2021

Understanding systems by forward and inverse modeling is a recurrent topic of research in many domains of science and engineering. In this context, Monte Carlo methods have been widely used as powerful tools for numerical inference and optimization. They require the choice of a suitable proposal density that is crucial for their performance. For this reason, several adaptive importance sampling (AIS) schemes have been proposed in the literature. We here present an AIS framework called Regression-based Adaptive Deep Importance Sampling (RADIS). In RADIS, the key idea is the adaptive construction via regression of a non-parametric proposal density (i.e., an emulator), which mimics the posteri…

Probabilistic and team PFIN-type learning: General properties

2008

We consider the probability hierarchy for Popperian FINite learning and study the general properties of this hierarchy. We prove that the probability hierarchy is decidable, i.e. there exists an algorithm that receives p_1 and p_2 and answers whether PFIN-type learning with the probability of success p_1 is equivalent to PFIN-type learning with the probability of success p_2. To prove our result, we analyze the topological structure of the probability hierarchy. We prove that it is well-ordered in descending ordering and order-equivalent to ordinal epsilon_0. This shows that the structure of the hierarchy is very complicated. Using similar methods, we also prove that, for PFIN-type learning…

Compressed Particle Methods for Expensive Models With Application in Astronomy and Remote Sensing

2021

In many inference problems, the evaluation of complex and costly models is often required. In this context, Bayesian methods have become very popular in several fields over the last years, in order to obtain parameter inversion, model selection or uncertainty quantification. Bayesian inference requires the approximation of complicated integrals involving (often costly) posterior distributions. Generally, this approximation is obtained by means of Monte Carlo (MC) methods. In order to reduce the computational cost of the corresponding technique, surrogate models (also called emulators) are often employed. Another alternative approach is the so-called Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) sc…