Search results for "Inference"
showing 10 items of 478 documents
Reference Priors in a Variance Components Problem
1992
The ordered group reference prior algorithm of Berger and Bernardo (1989b) is applied to the balanced variance components problem. Besides the intrinsic interest of developing good noninformative priors for the variance components problem, a number of theoretically interesting issues arise in application of the proposed procedure. The algorithm is described (for completeness) in an important special case, with a detailed heuristic motivation.
Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues
2011
In this article, we describe the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals, which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian model-averaging estimator and the weighted-average least-squares estimator developed by Magnus, Powell, and Prüfer (2010, Journal of Econometrics 154: 139–153). Unlike standard pretest estimators that are based on some preliminary diagnostic test, these model-averaging estimators provide a coherent way of making inference on the regression parameters of interest by taking into account the uncertainty due to both the estimation and the model selection steps. Spec…
Improvement of Statistical Decisions under Parametric Uncertainty
2011
A large number of problems in production planning and scheduling, location, transportation, finance, and engineering design require that decisions be made in the presence of uncertainty. Decision‐making under uncertainty is a central problem in statistical inference, and has been formally studied in virtually all approaches to inference. The aim of the present paper is to show how the invariant embedding technique, the idea of which belongs to the authors, may be employed in the particular case of finding the improved statistical decisions under parametric uncertainty. This technique represents a simple and computationally attractive statistical method based on the constructive use of the i…
A SYNTHETIC MEASURE FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE PROJECT PERFORMANCE
2009
The present paper aims to offer a synthetic project performance indicator (PPI) that aggregates two input parameters obtained by the Earned Value Analysis. The PPI is calculated by using a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) able to single out a measure based on the input parameters, instead of formulating a mathematical model that could be a troublesome task whenever complex relations among the input variables exist. The purpose is to communicate the project performance to the stakeholders in a clear and complete way, for example, describing the PPI by means of contour lines.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFERENTIAL PROCESSING AND TEXT PROCESSING: A DEVELOPMENTAL STUDY
2012
The research reported here was designed to investigate the critical role played by certain factors implicated in the mental representation of text, and to establish whether their role varies significantly as a function of developmental age. Specifically, it was decided to analyse, in a sample of 180 subjects was selected from three different age groups (7, 10 and 18 years of age respectively), the role of such factors in mediating and influencing the generation of the inferences needed to understand a piece of text characterised by a sequence of information which flows in a logical order, but leads to a conclusion which is contrary to the expectations evoked by the text. In line with this o…
Functional Metabolic Diversity of Bacterioplankton in Maritime Antarctic Lakes
2021
A summer survey was conducted on the bacterioplankton communities of seven lakes from Byers Peninsula (Maritime Antarctica), differing in trophic and morphological characteristics. Predictions of the metabolic capabilities of these communities were performed with FAPROTAX using 16S rRNA sequencing data. The versatility for metabolizing carbon sources was also assessed in three of the lakes using Biolog Ecoplates. Relevant differences among lakes and within lake depths were observed. A total of 23 metabolic activities associated to the main biogeochemical cycles were foreseen, namely, carbon (11), nitrogen (4), sulfur (5), iron (2), and hydrogen (1). The aerobic metabolisms dominated, althou…
Graph Topology Learning and Signal Recovery Via Bayesian Inference
2019
The estimation of a meaningful affinity graph has become a crucial task for representation of data, since the underlying structure is not readily available in many applications. In this paper, a topology inference framework, called Bayesian Topology Learning, is proposed to estimate the underlying graph topology from a given set of noisy measurements of signals. It is assumed that the graph signals are generated from Gaussian Markov Random Field processes. First, using a factor analysis model, the noisy measured data is represented in a latent space and its posterior probability density function is found. Thereafter, by utilizing the minimum mean square error estimator and the Expectation M…
Bayesian Model Averaging and Weighted Average Least Squares: Equivariance, Stability, and Numerical Issues
2011
This article is concerned with the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimator and the Weighted Average Least Squares (WALS) estimator developed by Magnus et al. (2010). Unlike standard pretest estimators which are based on some preliminary diagnostic test, these model averaging estimators provide a coherent way of making inference on the regression parameters of interest by taking into account the uncertainty due to both the estimation and the model selection steps. Special emphasis is given to a number pra…
Analysis of DNA sequence variation within marine species using Beta-coalescents
2013
We apply recently developed inference methods based on general coalescent processes to DNA sequence data obtained from various marine species. Several of these species are believed to exhibit so-called shallow gene genealogies, potentially due to extreme reproductive behaviour, e.g. via Hedgecock's "reproduction sweepstakes". Besides the data analysis, in particular the inference of mutation rates and the estimation of the (real) time to the most recent common ancestor, we briefly address the question whether the genealogies might be adequately described by so-called Beta coalescents (as opposed to Kingman's coalescent), allowing multiple mergers of genealogies. The choice of the underlying…
On the use of adaptive spatial weight matrices from disease mapping multivariate analyses
2020
Conditional autoregressive distributions are commonly used to model spatial dependence between nearby geographic units in disease mapping studies. These distributions induce spatial dependence by means of a spatial weights matrix that quantifies the strength of dependence between any two neighboring spatial units. The most common procedure for defining that spatial weights matrix is using an adjacency criterion. In that case, all pairs of spatial units with adjacent borders are given the same weight (typically 1) and the remaining non-adjacent units are assigned a weight of 0. However, assuming all spatial neighbors in a model to be equally influential could be possibly a too rigid or inapp…