Search results for "Macroeconomic"
showing 10 items of 503 documents
Business Cycle Affiliations in the Context of European Integration
2007
We study affiliations for the countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) with Germany and the USA, using various business cycle measures derived from quarterly real GDP. These measures are Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King filtered series and annual growth rates. By using rolling contemporaneous and maximum (over a short lead/lag interval) correlations, we document increasing correlations of EMU countries with Germany, with these typically being largest during the 1990s. We also document a strong leading role for the USA in relation to these countries in the period since 1993, thereby correcting the fallacy that the European business cycle was disjointed from the USA for mos…
The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries
2012
Abstract The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial crises on potential output. For this purpose a univariate autoregressive growth equation is estimated on an unbalanced panel of OECD countries over the period 1960–2008. Our results suggest that the occurrence of a financial crisis negatively and permanently affects potential output. In particular, financial crises are estimated to lower potential output by around 1.5–2.4% on average, with most of the impact coming from the effect on capital. The magnitude of the effect increases with the severity of the crisis. These results are robust to the use of an alternative measure of potential output, changes in the methodology and…
An anatomy of financial crises in Norway, 1830-2010
2014
Author's version of an article in the journal: Financial History Review. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0968565013000279 On the basis of a novel dataset, the article investigates the anatomy of financial crises in Norway from 1830 to 2010. First, nine significant crises are identified. Second, the article examines spillover effects on the real economy. We find a clear but not symmetric relationship. Third, the article investigates key patterns in credit and money volumes. Major financial crises typically occurred after substantial money and credit expansion, causing financial instability.
The Analysis on the Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy in the EU Member States
2013
Abstract This paper deals with the topic of cyclicality of fiscal policy. The main purpose of this paper is to determine the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy in the EU member states, using historical time series for all the European countries during the period between 1995- 2011. The results pointed out that the procyclical fiscal policies are a feature of developing countries and the countercyclical and acyclical fiscal policies are a feature of developed counties.
What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?
2015
We use data for a panel of 60 countries over the period 1980–2005 to investigate the main drivers of the likelihood of structural reforms. We find that: (i) external debt crises are the main trigger of financial and banking reforms; (ii) inflation and banking crises are the key drivers of external capital account reforms; (iii) banking crises also hasten financial reforms; and (iv) economic recessions play an important role in promoting the necessary consensus for financial, capital, banking and trade reforms, especially in the group of OECD-countries. Additionally, we also observe that the degree of globalisation is relevant for financial reforms, in particular in the group of non-OECD cou…
Trade Openness and Income: A Tale of Two Regions
2015
In this article we present evidence of the long-run effect of trade openness on income per worker for two regions that have followed different liberalization strategies, namely Asia and Latin America. A model that re-examines these questions is estimated for two panels of Asian and Latin American countries over the 1980-2008 period using a novel empirical approach that accounts for endogeneity as well as for the time series properties of the variables involved. From an econometric point of view, we apply recent panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for two additional elements usually neglected in previous empirical literature: cross-dependence and structural bre…
Fiscal Convergence, Business Cycle Volatility and Growth
2009
This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal convergence on business cycle volatility and growth. Using a panel 21 OECD countries (including 11 EMU countries) and 40 years of data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have smoother business cycles. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with smoother business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced business cycle volatility through higher fiscal convergence stimulates growth. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant and robust.
Improved Predictability for Foreign Direct Investors by Comprising Different Macroeconomic Levels: A New Model Approach
2020
Foreign direct investments have grown over the last decades which are related to the ongoing globalization process. The current literature shows research works dealing with the topic of influence factors on foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions which may occur during the decision-making process. A new causal model has been developed to get in-depth view on macroeconomic perspective. Motives to do FDI are strongly impacted by macroeconomic factors which may influence upcoming decisions. To be able to understand the impact of the macroeconomic environment on FDI decisions the factors have been diversified and conceptualized, divided into three subgroups of independent latent variables in …
Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain
2015
"Available online 1 August 2014"
Forecasting US Growth During the Great Recession: Is the Financial Volatility the Missing Ingredient?
2012
The Great Recession endured by the main industrialized countries during the period 2008-2009, in the wake of the financial and banking crisis, has pointed out the major role of the financial sector on macroeconomic fluctuations. In this respect, many researchers have started to reconsider the linkages between financial and macroeconomic areas. In this paper, we evaluate the leading role of the daily volatility of two major financial variables, namely commodity and stock prices, in their ability to anticipate the output growth. For this purpose, we propose an extended MIDAS model that allows the forecasting of the quarterly output growth rate using exogenous variables sampled at various high…