Search results for "Monetary economics"

Exchange Rate Volatility in the Balkans and Eastern Europe: Implications for International Investments

2016

Our paper’s objective is to study the volatility of exchange rates from the region that have not yet adopted the Euro and are not members of the Exchange Rate Mechanism II by considering the exchange rate regime and the implications of currency volatility for foreign capital flows. We model exchange rate volatility by using standard deviations of daily logarithmic changes in the exchange rates, rolling standard deviations, Hodrick-Prescott filters to detect the trends in volatility and ARIMA models. We find that currency volatility remains a strong issue for these countries and that central banks have attempted to manage it, particularly after the global financial crisis. Spikes in monthly …

The Economics of Monetary Union: The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas

2013

In the 1960s, the theory of Optimum Currency Areas (OCAs) emerged as a by-product of the theoretical debate between fixed and flexible exchange rates. The OCAs approach singles out an economic characteristic to define an economic domain where there is exchange rate fixity erga intra, while there is exchange rate flexibility erga extra. In an optimum currency area, exchange rates fixity prevails internally without any type of internal or external disequilibrium. Each single characteristic ensures that floating or regular adjustments in nominal exchange rates are neither necessary, efficient nor desirable for stabilisation purposes. The literature proposes several economic criteria: factor mo…

Media Tone Goes Viral: Global Evidence from the Currency Market

2020

Using several million news and social media articles related to currencies, we examine the role of media tone in predicting the exchange rate returns of 12 developed and 24 emerging markets from 1998 to 2016. The text-based currency Media tone is a strong positive predictor of currency excess returns beyond fundamentals of one to three months ahead and six months cumulatively, with the average in-sample and out-of-sample R^2s of 4.45% and 9.03% in the US. The one-month predictability is observed in four other developed markets and 18 emerging market currencies, with the latter showing a stronger pattern. This predictability encompasses previous month currency returns, currency factors, macr…

The Macroeconomy after Tariffs

2021

Trading with Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers

2007

:  We study the profitability of trading strategies based on volatility spillovers between large and small firms. By using the Volatility Impulse-Response Function of Lin (1997) and its extensions, we detect that any volatility shock coming from small companies is important to large companies, but the reverse is only true for negative shocks coming from large firms. To exploit these asymmetric patterns in volatility, different trading rules are designed based on the inverse relationship existing between expected return and volatility. We find that most strategies generate excess after-transaction cost profits, especially after very bad news and very good news coming from large or small firm…

The Interplay between Money Market Development and Changes in Monetary Policy Operations in Small European Countries, 1980-2000

2006

We study the interplay between money market development and changes in monetary policy operating procedures in 11 European countries from c. 1980 up to the launch of the EMU. Aspects of money market development such as size and structure of different market segments, and institutional and regulatory changes, are addressed. We recount and empirically examine the reorientation of monetary policy instruments away from quantitative direct control instruments towards indirect market-based instruments.The process of deregulation is uniform across countries. The path of money market development varies substantially, whereas changes in central bank instruments show both similarities and differences…

Income structure, profitability and risk in the European banking sector: The impact of the crisis

2017

This study sets out to analyse whether the effect of the income structure on the risk and profitability of European banks has changed as a result of the crisis and if it varies according to banks’ specialisation in a particular type of banking business. To do so, it estimates the income structure over the period 2002–2012 using data for a panel of European banks. The study also examines if there are differences between investment-oriented banks and banks specialising in financial intermediation in terms of the effect of income structure on risk and profitability. Our findings show that an increase in the share of non-interest income has a negative impact on profitability, although the effec…

Corporate Distress and Restructuring with Macroeconomic Fluctuations: The Cases of GM and Ford

2011

Traditional methods for evaluating corporate credit risk rarely consider the impact of the macro economy on corporate value and performance. We argue that lenders and management can obtain valuable information about the need for and approach to restructuring by decomposing default predictions into intrinsic and macroeconomic factors. We apply a method previously used for measuring macroeconomic exposures on default predictions in order to filter out macroeconomic factors. In this paper the method is applied on an analysis of the Z-scores for GM and Ford for the period 1996-2005. The macro-economy has affected the two firms in different ways with implications for managements and creditors ap…

Quantifying Structural Subsidy Values for Systemically Important Financial Institutions

2013

Abstract Claimants to Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) would receive transfers when governments are forced into bailouts. Ex ante, this bailout expectation lowers SIFIs’ daily funding costs. The funding cost advantage reflects both the structural level of the government support and the time-varying market valuation for such a support. Based on a large worldwide sample of banks, we estimate the value of the structural subsidy, by exploiting expectations of state support embedded in credit ratings and by applying the long-run average value of the rating bonus. The value of the structural subsidy was already sizable, 60 basis points (bp), as of the end-2007, before the cri…

Operating and stock market performance of state-owned enterprise privatizations: The Spanish experience

2007

Abstract We investigate the operating and stock market performance of Spanish state-owned enterprises (SOEs) privatized through public share issue offerings (SIPs) from 1990 to 2001, when the last SIP was conducted. We compare the performance of SOEs and privately-owned firms. We find significant operating improvements in Spanish SOEs after the privatization. Specifically, they show significant increases in income efficiency, real sales and employment. Spanish governments tried to minimize the foregone proceeds when selling SOE shares and underpriced them lower than private firms. We relate these results with the pressure of the Maastricht Treaty fiscal criteria, as well as lower informatio…