Search results for "Monetary economics"
showing 10 items of 361 documents
Am I riskier if I rescue my banks? Beyond the effects of bailouts
2021
Abstract We examine the relationship between bank bailouts and sovereign risk in 35 countries and 19 bailouts from 2005 to 2015. Bailouts negatively affect sovereign ratings, with rating agencies consistently perceiving higher risk when a country’s banking system has been rescued (risk-increasing effect). The increase in public debt as a result of the bank bailouts is the main mechanism through which the risk-increasing effect occurs. Moreover, financial soundness and banking market structure shape the impact of bailouts on sovereign risk. In particular, proactiveness in undertaking public bailouts for banking systems that are largely distressed – that is, risky and low profitable – and hig…
Am I riskier if I rescue my banks? The unintended effects of bailouts
2021
We examine the relationship between bank bailouts and sovereign risk in 35 countries and 19 bailouts during 2005–2015. Bailouts negatively affect sovereign ratings, with rating agencies consistently perceiving higher risk when the country’s banking system has been rescued (risk-increasing effect). Financial soundness and banking market structure shape the impact of bailouts on sovereign risk. In particular, proactiveness in undertaking public bailouts for banking systems that are largely distressed -risky and low profitable- and highly concentrated seems to lead to lower increases in sovereign risk. However, the strength of the connection between the public sector and the banking system nei…
The Speed of Exchange Rate Pass-Through
2016
On January 15, 2015, the Swiss National Bank terminated its minimum exchange rate policy of one euro against 1.2 Swiss francs. This policy shift resulted in a sharp, unanticipated and permanent appreciation of the Swiss franc by more than 11% against the euro. We analyze the exchange rate pass-through into import unit values of this shock at the daily frequency using Swiss transaction-level trade data. Our key findings are twofold. First, for goods invoiced in euro the pass-through is immediate and complete. This finding is consistent with no systematic nominal price adjustment in this subset of goods. Second, for goods invoiced in Swiss francs the pass-through is partial and very fast: it …
Short-Term Electricity Futures Prices: Evidence on the Time-Varying Risk Premium
2008
This paper examines empirically the relationship between electricity spot and futures prices, by analysing a decade of data for a set of short term-to-maturity futures contracts traded in the Nordic Power Exchange, Nord Pool. It is found that, on average, there are significant positive risk premiums in short-term electricity futures prices. The significance and size of the premiums, however, varies seasonally over the year; whereas it is greatest during winter, it is zero in summer. It is also found that time-varying risk premiums are significantly related to unexpectedly low reservoir levels. Furthermore, before the unprecedented supply-shock that hit the Nord Pool market around the end of…
Network-Based Computational Techniques to Determine the Risk Drivers of Bank Failures During a Systemic Banking Crisis
2018
This paper employs a computational model of solvency and liquidity contagion assessing the vulnerability of banks to systemic risk. We find that the main risk drivers relate to the financial connections a bank has and the market concentration, apart from the size of the bank triggering the contagion, while balance sheets play only a minor role. We also find that market concentration might facilitate banks to withstand liquidity shocks better while exposing them to larger solvency chocks. Our results are validated through an out-of-sample forecasting that shows that both type I and type II prediction errors are reduced if we include network characteristics in our prediction model.
Cross-border capital flows and information spillovers across the equity and currency markets in emerging economies
2021
This paper presents a novel perspective on the interaction between equity and currency markets in emerging market economies (EMEs) by (i) examining the nonlinear effects of capital flows on return spillovers between the stock and currency markets in a sample of twelve EMEs via the causality-in-quantiles approach of Balcilar et al., (2016), and (ii) providing a comparative analysis of the influence of debt versus equity flows over the spillover patterns. We show that the causal effects of international debt and equity flows on return spillovers across the equity and FX markets are largely concentrated at lower quantiles, suggesting that the arrival of information via capital flows tends to e…
High-frequency trading and networked markets
2021
Financial markets have undergone a deep reorganization during the last 20 y. A mixture of technological innovation and regulatory constraints has promoted the diffusion of market fragmentation and high-frequency trading. The new stock market has changed the traditional ecology of market participants and market professionals, and financial markets have evolved into complex sociotechnical institutions characterized by a great heterogeneity in the time scales of market members’ interactions that cover more than eight orders of magnitude. We analyze three different datasets for two highly studied market venues recorded in 2004 to 2006, 2010 to 2011, and 2018. Using methods of complex network th…
Evaluating currency crises: the case of the European monetary system
2007
In this paper we examine the nature of currency crises. We ascertain whether the currency crises of the European Monetary System (EMS) were based either on fundamentals, or on self-fulfilling market expectations driven by extrinsic uncertainty. In particular, we extend previous work of Jeanne and Masson (J Int Econ 50:327–350, 2000) regarding the evaluation of currency crisis. We contribute to the existing literature proposing the use of Markov regime-switching with time-varying transition probability model. Our empirical results suggest that the currency crises of the EMS were not due only to market expectations driven by external uncertainty, or ‘sunspots’, but also to fundamental variabl…
The Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions and Policies
2018
The paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of labor and product market reforms on output, employment and productivity, and explores how these vary with prevailing macroeconomic conditions and policies. We apply a local projection method to a new dataset of major country- and country-sector-level reform shocks in various areas of labor market institutions and product market regulation covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. Product market reforms are found to raise productivity and output, but gains materialize only slowly. The impact of labor market reforms is primarily on employment, but it varies across types of reforms and depends on overall business cycle c…
Can fiscal policy stimulus boost economic recovery
2011
We assess the role played by fiscal policy in explaining the dynamics of asset markets. Using a panel of ten industrialized countries, we show that a positive fiscal shock has a negative impact in both stock and housing prices. However, while stock prices immediately adjust to the shock and the effect of fiscal policy is temporary, housing prices gradually and persistently fall. Consequently, the attempts of fiscal policy to mitigate stock price developments (e.g. via taxes on capital gains) may severely de-stabilize housing markets. The empirical findings also point to significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts, which gives rise to the importance of the im…