Search results for "Monetary economics"
showing 10 items of 361 documents
Sequential Warrant Exercise in Large Trader Economies
2007
It is well known that the sequential (premature) exercise of American-type warrants "may" be advantageous for large warrantholders, even in the absence of regular dividends, because using exercise proceeds to expand the firm's scale increases the riskiness of an equity share. We present sufficient conditions for the non-optimality of sequential exercise implying that for realistic interest rate levels even large warrantholders are better off not to exercise long before maturity. This result, however, does not justify in general the simplifying restriction that warrants or convertible securities are valued as if exercised as a block.
The Euro Area Crisis; Need for a Supranational Fiscal Risk Sharing Mechanism?
2013
The aim of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of risk sharing mechanisms in the euro area and whether a supranational fiscal risk sharing mechanism could insure countries against very severe downturns. Using an unbalanced panel of 15 euro area countries over the period 1979â2010, the results of the paper show that: (i) the effectiveness of risk sharing mechanisms in the euro area is significantly lower than in existing federations (such as the U.S. and Germany) and (ii) it falls sharply in severe downturns just when it is needed most; (iii) a supranational fiscal stabilization mechanism, financed by a relatively small contribution, would be able to fully insure euro area countries …
How costly are debt crises?
2011
The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after eight years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets.
Calcul des risques et rationalité dans la pensée de Cesare Beccaria
2000
International audience; Le traité de Beccaria Des délits et des peines fut publié entre avril et juillet 1764 au moment où paraissaient les premières feuilles du Café 1. Il est donc à peu près contemporain de l'essai d'analyse sur la contrebande que Beccaria rédigea pour le périodique de Pietro Verri. Cet article est assez peu commenté pour des raisons qui sont simples : il s'agit d'un texte bref (une page et demie) ; le sujet traité est une question technique (la méthode de fixation d'un tarif douanier). Beccaria enfin recourt aux mathématiques en utilisant des symboles et une forme de fonction qui ne sont pas ceux des manuels d'aujourd'hui 2. Pourtant l'article nous paraît typique de la r…
The Speed of Exchange Rate Pass-Through
2019
Abstract On January 15, 2015, the Swiss National Bank discontinued its minimum exchange rate policy of 1 euro against 1.2 Swiss francs. This policy change resulted in a sharp, unanticipated, and permanent appreciation of the Swiss franc by more than 11% against the euro. We analyze the pass-through of this unusually clean exchange rate shock into import unit values at the daily frequency using Swiss transaction-level trade data. Our key findings are twofold. First, for goods invoiced in euros, the pass-through is immediate and complete. Second, for goods invoiced in Swiss francs, the pass-through is partial and exceptionally fast: beginning on the second working day after the exchange rate …
A Reconsideration of the Role of Forward-Market Arbitrage in Keynes’s and Hicks’s Theories of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
2014
International audience; This paper develops the relationship between Hicks’s and Keynes’s writings on the theory of the term structure of interest rates, and shows in detail how Hicks built on and extended Keynes’s account. According to this theory, the level of the long-term interest rate is determined by expectations of future short-term rates. Keynes’s thinking contained several notions – such as the preferred habitat of lenders, the theory of forward markets, and risk-premiums – which Hicks used to give a more complete theory of the term structure of interest rates. Besides implementing these notions in his own theory, Hicks introduced the concepts of the preferred habitat of borrowers,…
Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries
2017
According to standard economic theory, capital should flow from rich to poor countries. However, a reverse pattern has prevailed in the world economy. This is the so-called Lucas paradox. In addition, it has been shown that, counterintuitively, there is a negative correlation between capital inflow and productivity growth across developing countries. This is the so-called allocation puzzle. This review sheds light on the following questions: “What are the patterns of international capital flows in the world economy?”, “What are the most plausible explanations for these patterns?”, and “What are the possible implications of these developments for developing countries?” In addition, the curre…
Good and useless FDI: The growth effects of greenfield investment and mergers and acquisitions
2017
We explore the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, distinguishing between mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and “greenfield” investment. A simple model underlines that, unlike greenfield investment, M&As partly represent a rent accruing to previous owners, and do not necessarily contribute to expanding the host country's capital stock. Greenfield FDI should therefore have a stronger impact on growth than M&A sales. This hypothesis is supported by our empirical results that are based on a panel of up to 127 industrialized, emerging, and developing countries over 1990 to 2010.
Exposure to Exchange Rate Risk and Competitiveness: An Application to South-Eastern Europe
2017
Our chapter investigates the economic exposure to currency risk of stock markets from nine countries in South-Eastern Europe using bilateral exchange rates of the domestic currencies against their main trading partners’ currencies between 1999 and 2015. The relevance and magnitude of exposures are investigated through changes in exchange rates in linear and non-linear specifications. Our results indicate that these economies show contemporaneous exposure to currency risk, but they are different in size and sign from one country to another and from one currency to another, a result that can be explained by the dissimilar economic structures in the region. There is smaller evidence for asymme…
Holes in the Dike: The Global Savings Glut, U.S. House Prices and the Long Shadow of Banking Deregulation
2016
We explore empirically how capital inflows into the US and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the run-up (and subsequent decline) in US housing prices over the period 1990-2010. To obtain an ex ante measure of financial liberalization, we focus on the history of interstate-banking deregulation during the 1980s, i.e. prior to the large net capital inflows into the US from China and other emerging economies. Our results suggest a long shadow of deregulation: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to capital inflows. We provide evidence that global imbalances were a major positive funding sh…