Search results for "Monetary"
showing 10 items of 502 documents
The Taylor Rule and the Practice of Central Banking
2010
The Taylor rule has revolutionized the way many policymakers at central banks think about monetary policy. It has framed policy actions as a systematic response to incoming information about economic conditions, as opposed to a period-by-period optimization problem. It has emphasized the importance of adjusting policy rates more than one-for-one in response to an increase in inflation. And, various versions of the Taylor rule have been incorporated into macroeconomic models that are used at central banks to understand and forecast the economy. This paper examines how the Taylor rule is used as an input in monetary policy deliberations and decision-making at central banks. The paper characte…
Harvard meets the crisis: U.S. fiscal policy in the 1930s and the political economy of Lauchlin B. Currie, Jacob Viner, John H. Williams and Harry D.…
2010
The paper aims to describe the contribution of four Harvard economists to the interpretation of the Great Depression and the policy decision making from 1933 to 1938. Lauchlin B. Currie, Jacob Viner, John H. Williams, Harry D. White, eminent scholars in the field of monetary and international economics, were deeply involved in policy decisions during the New Deal. In our synoptic analysis we will benefit from extensive scholarly work that has been provided in the last few years. We shall examine the extensive biographical connection between Currie, Viner, White and Williams with special regard to their common training at Harvard. Then we shall compare their interpretations of the causes of …
The postwar economic order. National reconstruction and international cooperation
2022
Albert O. Hirschman wrote the reports collected in this book while in the employ of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Almost all of them appeared in the Review of Foreign Developments, which ran from 1945 to 1975. The reports, which were usually marked “Confidential” or “Restricted,” are now in the public domain but remain the intellectual creations of Hirschman.*
Interest Rate Convergence, External Balances and the Euro Crisis
2016
Typically, the catching-up process between rich Northern Europe and poor Southern Europe and the diverging cost competitiveness between the two regions are considered alternative explanations for the widening current account imbalances in the euro area. This paper proposes a new explanation for the imbalances which led to the 2009 euro crisis i.e. large interest rate differentials among the EMU-12 countries which prevailed before the adoption of the euro. This finding suggests that the euro crisis was, at least to some extent, a consequence of the initial convergence shock.
The Speed of Exchange Rate Pass-Through
2016
On January 15, 2015, the Swiss National Bank terminated its minimum exchange rate policy of one euro against 1.2 Swiss francs. This policy shift resulted in a sharp, unanticipated and permanent appreciation of the Swiss franc by more than 11% against the euro. We analyze the exchange rate pass-through into import unit values of this shock at the daily frequency using Swiss transaction-level trade data. Our key findings are twofold. First, for goods invoiced in euro the pass-through is immediate and complete. This finding is consistent with no systematic nominal price adjustment in this subset of goods. Second, for goods invoiced in Swiss francs the pass-through is partial and very fast: it …
Short-Term Electricity Futures Prices: Evidence on the Time-Varying Risk Premium
2008
This paper examines empirically the relationship between electricity spot and futures prices, by analysing a decade of data for a set of short term-to-maturity futures contracts traded in the Nordic Power Exchange, Nord Pool. It is found that, on average, there are significant positive risk premiums in short-term electricity futures prices. The significance and size of the premiums, however, varies seasonally over the year; whereas it is greatest during winter, it is zero in summer. It is also found that time-varying risk premiums are significantly related to unexpectedly low reservoir levels. Furthermore, before the unprecedented supply-shock that hit the Nord Pool market around the end of…
Gli Indigeni e la moneta. Rinvenimenti monetali e associazioni contestuali dai centri dell’entroterra siciliano
2012
The Sicilian hinterland and, in particular, the territory of the current province of Caltanissetta, during the archaeological investigations of the last sixty years, has returned a substantial monetary documentation. The analysis of these coins, conducted in parallel with that of the materials found in the relative archaeological contexts, has allowed us to draw significant considerations on the "monetary uses" of the anellenic populations of this part of Sicily. Despite, starting from the last twenty-five years of the fifth century a. C., coins spread more and more in this territory, it seems that these communities never fully understood the original structure of this exchange instrument a…
Economic and fiscal policy coordination after the crisis: is the European Semester promoting more or less state intervention?
2020
The European Union (EU) – and its Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in particular – is often criticized as a predominantly marketoriented project. We analyse to what extent such claims can be substantiated by focusing on one key aspect of the EU’s post-crisis framework for economic governance: the country-specific recom- 15 mendations (CSRs) that the EU has been issuing annually since 2011. Based on an original dataset, we analyse more than 1300 CSRs, which show that the EU does not push uniformly for less state intervention. Rather, the CSRs tend to suggest fiscal restraint and less protection for labour market insiders, while simultaneously 20 promoting measures that benefit vulnerable gr…
Network-Based Computational Techniques to Determine the Risk Drivers of Bank Failures During a Systemic Banking Crisis
2018
This paper employs a computational model of solvency and liquidity contagion assessing the vulnerability of banks to systemic risk. We find that the main risk drivers relate to the financial connections a bank has and the market concentration, apart from the size of the bank triggering the contagion, while balance sheets play only a minor role. We also find that market concentration might facilitate banks to withstand liquidity shocks better while exposing them to larger solvency chocks. Our results are validated through an out-of-sample forecasting that shows that both type I and type II prediction errors are reduced if we include network characteristics in our prediction model.
Cross-border capital flows and information spillovers across the equity and currency markets in emerging economies
2021
This paper presents a novel perspective on the interaction between equity and currency markets in emerging market economies (EMEs) by (i) examining the nonlinear effects of capital flows on return spillovers between the stock and currency markets in a sample of twelve EMEs via the causality-in-quantiles approach of Balcilar et al., (2016), and (ii) providing a comparative analysis of the influence of debt versus equity flows over the spillover patterns. We show that the causal effects of international debt and equity flows on return spillovers across the equity and FX markets are largely concentrated at lower quantiles, suggesting that the arrival of information via capital flows tends to e…