Search results for "Monetary"
showing 10 items of 502 documents
The Euro Area Crisis; Need for a Supranational Fiscal Risk Sharing Mechanism?
2013
The aim of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of risk sharing mechanisms in the euro area and whether a supranational fiscal risk sharing mechanism could insure countries against very severe downturns. Using an unbalanced panel of 15 euro area countries over the period 1979â2010, the results of the paper show that: (i) the effectiveness of risk sharing mechanisms in the euro area is significantly lower than in existing federations (such as the U.S. and Germany) and (ii) it falls sharply in severe downturns just when it is needed most; (iii) a supranational fiscal stabilization mechanism, financed by a relatively small contribution, would be able to fully insure euro area countries …
How costly are debt crises?
2011
The aim of this paper is to assess the short- and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after eight years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets.
From Land Reform to Hyperinflation: The Zimbabwean Experience of 1997-2008
2018
This article has for objective to contribute to the understanding of the Zimbabwean hyperinflation. The agrarian reform announced in November, 1997 is at the origin of this hyperinflation. This led to a massive outflow of capital and a disruption in the production that cause over several years the degradation of the foreign accounts, and a trend depreciation of the Zimbabwean dollar. The depreciation, via the increase of the costs in the import, cause the strong increase in prices. The long-lasting increase in prices have, subsequently, lead practice of price indexation on the foreign exchange rate. These phenomena of indexation not only fed the inflationary process, but also led to the col…
Calcul des risques et rationalité dans la pensée de Cesare Beccaria
2000
International audience; Le traité de Beccaria Des délits et des peines fut publié entre avril et juillet 1764 au moment où paraissaient les premières feuilles du Café 1. Il est donc à peu près contemporain de l'essai d'analyse sur la contrebande que Beccaria rédigea pour le périodique de Pietro Verri. Cet article est assez peu commenté pour des raisons qui sont simples : il s'agit d'un texte bref (une page et demie) ; le sujet traité est une question technique (la méthode de fixation d'un tarif douanier). Beccaria enfin recourt aux mathématiques en utilisant des symboles et une forme de fonction qui ne sont pas ceux des manuels d'aujourd'hui 2. Pourtant l'article nous paraît typique de la r…
The Speed of Exchange Rate Pass-Through
2019
Abstract On January 15, 2015, the Swiss National Bank discontinued its minimum exchange rate policy of 1 euro against 1.2 Swiss francs. This policy change resulted in a sharp, unanticipated, and permanent appreciation of the Swiss franc by more than 11% against the euro. We analyze the pass-through of this unusually clean exchange rate shock into import unit values at the daily frequency using Swiss transaction-level trade data. Our key findings are twofold. First, for goods invoiced in euros, the pass-through is immediate and complete. Second, for goods invoiced in Swiss francs, the pass-through is partial and exceptionally fast: beginning on the second working day after the exchange rate …
A Reconsideration of the Role of Forward-Market Arbitrage in Keynes’s and Hicks’s Theories of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
2014
International audience; This paper develops the relationship between Hicks’s and Keynes’s writings on the theory of the term structure of interest rates, and shows in detail how Hicks built on and extended Keynes’s account. According to this theory, the level of the long-term interest rate is determined by expectations of future short-term rates. Keynes’s thinking contained several notions – such as the preferred habitat of lenders, the theory of forward markets, and risk-premiums – which Hicks used to give a more complete theory of the term structure of interest rates. Besides implementing these notions in his own theory, Hicks introduced the concepts of the preferred habitat of borrowers,…
Transformation of the agricultural financial system in the age of globalisation
2017
The paper is an attempt to address the advantages and risks connected with the wave of financial globalisation, with a focus on its impact on financial policy in European agriculture. The aim of the paper is to identify the basic conditions of the functioning and change of the financial system of agriculture under the conditions of the globalisation of financial markets. Financial globalisation, also referred to as financial integration or openness, is understood as an increase in global ties and interdependences caused by capital flows. Potentially, globalisation can bring a lot of benefits, which are manifested in an acceleration of economic growth and decreased fluctuation in consumption…
Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries
2017
According to standard economic theory, capital should flow from rich to poor countries. However, a reverse pattern has prevailed in the world economy. This is the so-called Lucas paradox. In addition, it has been shown that, counterintuitively, there is a negative correlation between capital inflow and productivity growth across developing countries. This is the so-called allocation puzzle. This review sheds light on the following questions: “What are the patterns of international capital flows in the world economy?”, “What are the most plausible explanations for these patterns?”, and “What are the possible implications of these developments for developing countries?” In addition, the curre…
Good and useless FDI: The growth effects of greenfield investment and mergers and acquisitions
2017
We explore the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, distinguishing between mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and “greenfield” investment. A simple model underlines that, unlike greenfield investment, M&As partly represent a rent accruing to previous owners, and do not necessarily contribute to expanding the host country's capital stock. Greenfield FDI should therefore have a stronger impact on growth than M&A sales. This hypothesis is supported by our empirical results that are based on a panel of up to 127 industrialized, emerging, and developing countries over 1990 to 2010.
Exposure to Exchange Rate Risk and Competitiveness: An Application to South-Eastern Europe
2017
Our chapter investigates the economic exposure to currency risk of stock markets from nine countries in South-Eastern Europe using bilateral exchange rates of the domestic currencies against their main trading partners’ currencies between 1999 and 2015. The relevance and magnitude of exposures are investigated through changes in exchange rates in linear and non-linear specifications. Our results indicate that these economies show contemporaneous exposure to currency risk, but they are different in size and sign from one country to another and from one currency to another, a result that can be explained by the dissimilar economic structures in the region. There is smaller evidence for asymme…