Search results for "Monetary"
showing 10 items of 502 documents
Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis: Identification Through Heteroscedasticity
2003
This paper examines whether a monetary policy tightening (i.e., an increase in the domestic interest rate) was successful in defending the exchange rate from speculative pressures during the Asian financial crisis. We estimate a bivariate VECM for four Asian countries, and improve upon existing studies in two important ways. First, by using a long data span we are able to compare the effects of an interest rate rise on the nominal exchange rate during tranquil and turbulent periods. Second, we take into account the endogeneity of interest rates and identify the system by exploiting the heteroscedasticity properties of the relevant time series, following Rigobon (2002). We find that while ti…
Stock Market Bubbles and Monetary Policy Effectiveness
2016
In this paper we provide evidence on the response of stock prices to monetary policy shocks, but conditioning the analysis to the direction of the monetary policy surprises and to the business conditions. We follow a two steps approach: First we use the SVAR approach to identify monetary policy shocks; and then we conduct regression analyses of contemporary stock market returns and monetary policy shocks in order to extract the implicit relationship between these variables in the four scenarios defined. Our results show that monetary policy do not impact on stock market returns in a significant form in the scenario defined by a positive shock and an expansion period, coinciding the poor eff…
Interest Rates and Net Interest Margins: The Impact of Monetary Policy
2017
In this chapter, we examine the determinants of bank net interest margin, focusing on the effect of interest rates, and thus monetary policy decisions. The analysis is carried with a panel of banks from 32 OECD countries over the period 2003–2014. The results show a quadratic relationship between net interest margins and interest rates, implying that the variation of the latter has a greater effect when interest rates are low. An important policy implication of the results is that there is a trade-off between economic growth and financial stability associated with the impact of expansionary monetary policy when the level of interest rates is very low. As a result, if the current scenario of…
Portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit swap markets
2018
We develop models for portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) markets and show that, despite literature findings that sovereign CDS spreads are affected by global factors, there is sufficient idiosyncratic risk to be diversified. However, we identify regime switching in the times series of CDS spreads and spread returns, and the optimal diversified strategies can be regime dependent. The developed models trade off the CVaR risk measure against expected return, consistently with the statistical properties of spreads. We consider three investment strategies suited for different CDS market participants: for investors with long positions, speculators that hold unco…
Is There a Connection between Sovereign CDS Spreads and the Stock Market? Evidence for European and US Returns and Volatilities
2020
This study complements the current literature, providing a thorough investigation of the lead&ndash
Pricing sovereign contingent convertible debt
2018
We develop a pricing model for Sovereign Contingent Convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread. We model CDS spread regime switching, which is prevalent during crises, as a hidden Markov process, coupled with a mean-reverting stochastic process of spread levels under fixed regimes, in order to obtain S-CoCo prices through simulation. The paper uses the pricing model in a Longstaff-Schwartz American option pricing framework to compute future state contingent S-CoCo prices for risk management. Dual trigger pricing is also discussed using the idiosyncratic CDS spread for the sovereign debt together with a broad market index. …
The Market Price of Credit Risk and Economic States
2015
This paper proposes a market-wide credit risk factor for the US stock market and investigates its properties that are dependent on economic conditions. The market price of credit risk is found to be statistically significantly negative, supporting earlier studies. However, a sample-split analysis reveals that this negative pay-off is non-existent in a later subsample, indicating that the credit risk puzzle is based on temporary mispricing related to the earlier subsample. Further investigation shows that mispricing in the earlier period was mainly driven by positive pay-offs of low credit risk firms, while high credit risk firms did not generate significant returns in any of the sub-periods.
The Real Effect of Financial Crises in the European Transition Economies
2010
Working Paper GATE 2009-20; International audience; The aim of this work is to assess the impact of financial crises on output for 11 European transition economies (CEECs). The results suggest that financial crises have a significant and permanent effect, lowering long-term output by about 17 percent. The effect is more important in smaller countries, with relative higher dependence on external financing, and in which the banking sector noticed more important financial disequilibria. We also found that fiscal policy measures have been the most efficient tools in dealing with the crises, while the role of monetary policy instruments has been rather blinded. Exchange rate resulted to be more …
How Do Institutions Affect Structural Unemployment in Times of Crises?
2012
This paper examines the effect of economic crises on structural unemployment using an Autoregressive Distributed Lags model and accounting for the role of institutional settings on an unbalanced panel of 30 OECD economies from 1960 to 2006. We found that downturns have, on average, a significant positive impact on the level of structural unemployment rate. The maximum impact varies with the severity of the downturn. Institutions (such as employment protection legislation, average replacement ratio and product market regulation) influence both the extent of the initial shock and the adjustment pattern in the aftermath of an economic downturn.
Virtual Currency: New Step in Monetary Development
2016
Abstract Money is perhaps the best recognized and at the same time less understood figure of economy. During the evolution of a monetary science starting from the eighteenth century and fundamental works on such questions as true nature and main functions of money, the approach and theories about monetary science have changed significantly up to date not reaching the final state. The twenty-first century can be characterized with a vast development of technologies and the increase use of the internet which significantly succeeded the development of monetary system introducing a new phenomenon - virtual currencies. While remaining rather illusive, virtual currencies have been broadly noted b…