Search results for "Monte Carlo method."
showing 10 items of 1217 documents
Exploring the uncertainty in capacity estimation at roundabouts
2017
Abstract Purpose In gap-acceptance theory the critical and the follow-up headways have a significant role in determining roundabout entry capacities which in turn depend on circulating flow rates under a specified arrival headway distribution. Calculation considers single mean values of the gap-acceptance parameters, neglecting the inherent variations in these random variables and providing a single value of entry capacity. The purpose of this paper is to derive the entry capacity distribution which accounts for the variations of the contributing (random) variables and suggest how to consider this issue in the operational analysis of the roundabouts. Methods We performed a Monte Carlo simul…
Uncertainty assessment of a model for biological nitrogen and phosphorus removal: Application to a large wastewater treatment plant
2012
Abstract In the last few years, the use of mathematical models in WasteWater Treatment Plant (WWTP) processes has become a common way to predict WWTP behaviour. However, mathematical models generally demand advanced input for their implementation that must be evaluated by an extensive data-gathering campaign, which cannot always be carried out. This fact, together with the intrinsic complexity of the model structure, leads to model results that may be very uncertain. Quantification of the uncertainty is imperative. However, despite the importance of uncertainty quantification, only few studies have been carried out in the wastewater treatment field, and those studies only included a few of …
The identifiability analysis for setting up measuring campaigns in integrated water quality modelling.
2012
Abstract Identifiability analysis enables the quantification of the number of model parameters that can be assessed by calibration with respect to a data set. Such a methodology is based on the appraisal of sensitivity coefficients of the model parameters by means of Monte Carlo runs. By employing the Fisher Information Matrix, the methodology enables one to gain insights with respect to the number of model parameters that can be reliably assessed. The paper presents a study where identifiability analysis is used as a tool for setting up measuring campaigns for integrated water quality modelling. Particularly, by means of the identifiability analysis, the information about the location and …
Application of Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the power injectable on electrical grid by wind farms
2008
This paper is part of a research aimed at assessing the impact of wind generation on the transmission grid of Sicily, second among the Italian regions for wind power installed. To assess the maximum degree of wind generation penetrability in full compliance with the safe operation of the system, it seemed necessary to investigate the reports of contemporary winds and their territorial correlations when load assumes the peak or the minimum. Given the nature of the problem, it has been used a method of analysis based on the application of stochastic simulation techniques type Monte Carlo. In the paper, after describing the current state of wind energy generation in Sicily and development scen…
A Monte Carlo Method for the Auto-Evaluation of the Uncertainties in the Analog-to-Digital Conversion-Based Measurements
2004
This paper concerns with the measurement uncertainty estimation in the analog‐to‐digital conversion‐based instruments. By using an ad hoc developed software tool, the Monte Carlo method is applied in order to assess the uncertainties associated with the measurement results, overcoming the possible inapplicability of the pure theoretical approach prescribed in the ISO – “Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement”. By implementing the software tool in the measurement instruments, the proposed approach can be utilized in order to make the instrument itself able to auto‐estimate the measurement uncertainties.
Probabilistic Approach to the Design of Photovoltaic Distributed Generation in Low Voltage Feeder
2006
This paper presents the probabilistic approach to the design of photovoltaic (PV) distributed generation (DG) and its impact on low voltage (LV) feeder. Monte Carlo simulation is used to predict solar radiation and load, and an exact method is used to solve the power flow. The method is tested on two study cases, and the results are compared with those from deterministic approach based on commonly used scenarios. The probabilistic approach is shown necessary to obtain the optimum PV rating based on technical constraints and different objectives, including accepting a reasonable risk when needed. The results also indicate that PV-DG in a realistic case will most probably improve the voltage …
The influence of rainfall time resolution for urban water quality modelling
2010
The objective of this paper is the definition of a methodology to evaluate the impact of the temporal resolution of rainfall measurements in urban drainage modelling applications. More specifically the effect of the temporal resolution on urban water quality modelling is detected analysing the uncertainty of the response of rainfall–runoff modelling. Analyses have been carried out using historical rainfall–discharge data collected for the Fossolo catchment (Bologna, Italy). According to the methodology, the historical rainfall data are taken as a reference, and resampled data have been obtained through a rescaling procedure with variable temporal windows. The shape comparison between ‘true’…
On the equation of state for thermal polymer solutions and melts with attractive interaction
1996
We perform Monte Carlo simulations of a lattice model for polymer melts, i. e., the bond fluctuation model in three dimensions. By using an energy parameter that prefers relatively long bonds, the model exhibits a glass transition at low temperatures, in close qualitative similarity to experiment. We modify this model by adding an attractive interaction of variable strength. We demonstrate that a small interaction strength has only a very small effect on the static properties of the melt. For a fixed strength of the potential, the chemical potential is measured by a modified particle-insertion method over a large range of temperatures and densities. The osmotic pressure is obtained by therm…
Clinical microbeam radiation therapy with a compact source: specifications of the line-focus X-ray tube
2020
Highlights • Line-focus X-ray tubes are suitable for clinical microbeam radiation therapy (MRT). • A modular high-voltage supply safely enables high electron beam powers. • An electron accelerator was designed to generate an eccentric focal spot. • We simulated a peak-to-valley dose ratio above 20 for single-field MRT. • Microbeam arc therapy spares healthy brain tissue compared to single-field MRT.
Stochastic response determination of nonlinear oscillators with fractional derivatives elements via the Wiener path integral
2014
A novel approximate analytical technique for determining the non-stationary response probability density function (PDF) of randomly excited linear and nonlinear oscillators endowed with fractional derivatives elements is developed. Specifically, the concept of the Wiener path integral in conjunction with a variational formulation is utilized to derive an approximate closed form solution for the system response non-stationary PDF. Notably, the determination of the non-stationary response PDF is accomplished without the need to advance the solution in short time steps as it is required by the existing alternative numerical path integral solution schemes which rely on a discrete version of the…