Search results for "Monte carlo method"
showing 10 items of 1234 documents
Resolved versus confirmed ARDS after 24 h: insights from the LUNG SAFE study
2018
Purpose: To evaluate patients with resolved versus confirmed ARDS, identify subgroups with substantial mortality risk, and to determine the utility of day 2 ARDS reclassification. Methods: Our primary objective, in this secondary LUNG SAFE analysis, was to compare outcome in patients with resolved versus confirmed ARDS after 24 h. Secondary objectives included identifying factors associated with ARDS persistence and mortality, and the utility of day 2 ARDS reclassification. Results: Of 2377 patients fulfilling the ARDS definition on the first day of ARDS (day 1) and receiving invasive mechanical ventilation, 503 (24%) no longer fulfilled the ARDS definition the next day, 52% of whom initial…
A simple analytical method for heterogeneity corrections in low dose rate prostate brachytherapy
2015
In low energy brachytherapy, the presence of tissue heterogeneities contributes significantly to the discrepancies observed between treatment plan and delivered dose. In this work, we present a simplified analytical dose calculation algorithm for heterogeneous tissue. We compare it with Monte Carlo computations and assess its suitability for integration in clinical treatment planning systems. The algorithm, named as RayStretch, is based on the classic equivalent path length method and TG-43 reference data. Analytical and Monte Carlo dose calculations using Penelope2008 are compared for a benchmark case: a prostate patient with calcifications. The results show a remarkable agreement between …
A pharmacokinetic approach to model-guided design of infliximab schedules in ulcerative colitis patients
2015
Background: Infliximab, an anti-tumour necrosis factor approved for treatment of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, is administered at predefined interdose-intervals. On insufficient response or loss of response, treatment can be intensified. The lack or loss of response is likely related to complex pharmacokinetics of infliximab. Aims: To explore optimal dosing strategies of infliximab in treatment-naïve patients with ulcerative colitis through predictive Monte Carlo simulations based on a validated population PK model. Methods: A population of 2,000 treatment-naïve patients was generated by Montecarlo simulation. Six dosing strategies for maintenance therapy were simulated on this po…
Global burden of hypertension and systolic blood pressure of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015
2017
IMPORTANCE Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. OBJECTIVE To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. DESIGN A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted va…
Phylogenetic reconstruction of HCV genotype 1b dissemination in a small city centre: The Camporeale model
2008
Several seroepidemiological population-based surveys carried out in Italy have shown a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Camporeale (CP), a small Sicilian town with a 10.4% prevalence of HCV mostly genotype 1b, probably represents a specific context, since intravenous drug addiction, and sexual promiscuity are almost absent. In order to reconstruct the pattern of introduction and diffusion of HCV in this ecological niche, the NS5 genomic region of 72 HCV genotype 1 isolates (39 from CP and 33 collected throughout Sicily) was amplified and sequenced. Sequences were aligned and analyzed by BioEdit, PAUP and BEAST, and their molecular evolution compared. Thirty-eight HCV ge…
Detection of Temporal Clusters of Healthcare-Associated Infections or Colonizations with Pseudomonas aeruginosa in Two Hospitals: Comparison of SaTSc…
2014
International audience; The identification of temporal clusters of healthcare-associated colonizations or infections is a challenge in infection control. WHONET software is available to achieve these objectives using laboratory databases of hospitals but it has never been compared with SaTScan regarding its detection performance. This study provided the opportunity to evaluate the performance of WHONET software in comparison with SaTScan software as a reference to detect clusters of Pseudomonas aeruginosa. A retrospective study was conducted in two French university hospitals. Cases of P. aeruginosa colonizations or infections occurring between 1st January 2005 and 30th April 2014 in the fi…
Brachytherapy organ dose estimation using Monte Carlo simulations of realistic patient models
2018
Radiation Therapy Planning Systems (RTPS) currently used in hospitals contain algorithms based on deterministic simplifications that do not properly consider electrons lateral transport in the areas where there are changes of density, and as a result, erroneous dose predictions could be produced. According to this, the present work proposes the use of Monte Carlo method in brachytherapy planning systems, which could affect positively on the radiotherapy treatment planning, since it provides results that are more accurate and takes into account the in homogeneities density variations. This paper presents a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of a brachytherapy prostate treatment with I-125 seeds, us…
Implicit Public Debt Thresholds: An Empirical Exercise for the Case of Spain
2017
We extend previous work that combines the Value at Risk approach with estimation of the correlation pattern of the macroeconomic determinants of public debt dynamics by means of Vector Auto Regressions (VARs). These estimated models are used to compute the probability that the public debt ratio exceeds a given threshold, by means of Monte Carlo simulations. We apply this methodology to Spanish data and compute time-series probabilities to analyse the possible correlation with market risk assessment, measured by the spread over the German bond. Taking into account the high correlation between the probability of crossing a pre-specified debt threshold and the spread, we go a step further and …
Bayesian forecasting with the Holt–Winters model
2010
Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in inventory systems and business planning, where reliable prediction intervals are also required for a large number of series. This paper describes a Bayesian forecasting approach based on the Holt–Winters model, which allows obtaining accurate prediction intervals. We show how to build them incorporating the uncertainty due to the smoothing unknowns using a linear heteroscedastic model. That linear formulation simplifies obtaining the posterior distribution on the unknowns; a random sample from such posterior, which is not analytical, is provided using an acceptance sampling procedure and a Monte Carlo approach gives …
Bayesian methods in cost-effectiveness studies: objectivity, computation and other relevant aspects.
2009
In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) of a cost-effectiveness (CE) study, the unknown parameters are considered as random variables. A crucial question is what probabilistic distribution is suitable for synthesizing the available information (mainly data from clinical trials) about these parameters. In this context, the important role of Bayesian methodology has been recognized, where the parameters are of a random nature. We explore, in the context of CE analyses, how formal objective Bayesian methods can be implemented. We fully illustrate the methodology using two CE problems that frequently appear in the CE literature. The results are compared with those obtained with other popu…