Search results for "Mortality"
showing 10 items of 1406 documents
Temporal evolution of some mortality indicators: Application to Spanish data
2012
[EN] In Spain, as in other developed countries, significant changes in mortality patterns have occurred during the 20th and 21st centuries. One reflection of these changes is life expectancy, which has improved in this period, although the robustness of this indicator prevents these changes from being of the same order as those for the probability of death. If, moreover, we bear in mind that life expectancy offers no information as to whether this improvement is the same for different age groups, it is important and necessary to turn to other mortality indicators whose past and future evolution in Spain we are going to study. These indicators are applied to Spanish mortality data for the pe…
A comparison of some simple methods to identify geographical areas with excess incidence of a rare disease such as childhood leukaemia
1999
SUMMARY Six statistics are compared in a simulation study for their ability to identify geographical areas with a known excess incidence of a rare disease. The statistics are the standardized incidence ratio, the empirical Bayes method of Clayton and Kaldor, Poisson probability, a statistic based on the B statistics are compared for the proportion of true high-risk areas identi"ed in the top 1 per cent and 10 per cent of ranked areas. One of the PW statistics performed consistently well under all circumstances, although the results for the BT statistic were marginally better when only the top 1 per cent of ranked areas was considered. The standardized incidence ratio performed consistently …
Estimation of the Combined Effects of Ageing and Seasonality on Mortality Risk: An Application to Spain
2021
Abstract Despite the overwhelming evidence that shows the persistence of intra-annual variations on demographic events (deaths, birth dates and migration flows), life tables are computed and provided on an annual basis. This paper develops a new estimator for estimating sub-annual death rates that, considering the exact moment of occurrence (exact age and day) of events, concurrently accounts for ageing and calendar fluctuations. This paper also shows how modelling the intra-annual variations of death rates, through specific seasonal–ageing indexes, can be used as a tool for constructing new sub-annual tables from annual tables. This new methodology is exemplified using a real database of S…
On the convenience of heteroscedasticity in highly multivariate disease mapping
2019
Highly multivariate disease mapping has recently been proposed as an enhancement of traditional multivariate studies, making it possible to perform the joint analysis of a large number of diseases. This line of research has an important potential since it integrates the information of many diseases into a single model yielding richer and more accurate risk maps. In this paper we show how some of the proposals already put forward in this area display some particular problems when applied to small regions of study. Specifically, the homoscedasticity of these proposals may produce evident misfits and distorted risk maps. In this paper we propose two new models to deal with the variance-adaptiv…
Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for a joint model for prostate cancer risk and longitudinal prostate-specific antigen data
2015
The paper describes the use of frequentist and Bayesian shared-parameter joint models of longitudinal measurements of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). The motivating dataset corresponds to the screening arm of the Spanish branch of the European Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer study. The results show that PSA is highly associated with the risk of being diagnosed with PCa and that there is an age-varying effect of PSA on PCa risk. Both the frequentist and Bayesian paradigms produced very close parameter estimates and subsequent 95% confidence and credibility intervals. Dynamic estimations of disease-free probabilities obtained using Bayesian infe…
Bivariate Distributed Lag Models for the analysis of temperature-by-pollutant interaction effect on mortality.
2007
This paper introduces Bivariate Distributed Lags Models (BDLMs) to investigate synergic effect of temperature and airborne particles on mortality. These models seem particulary attractive since they allow to model interactions between such environmental variables accounting for possible delayed effects. A B-spline framework is used to approximate the coefficient surface of the temperature-by-pollutant interaction and possible alternatives are also discussed. A case study of mortality time-series data in Palermo, Italy, is presented to illustrate the model. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
A comparison of nonparametric methods in the graduation of mortality: Application to data from the Valencia Region (Spain)
2006
[EN] The nonparametric graduation of mortality data aims to estimate death rates by carrying out a smoothing of the crude rates obtained directly from original data. The main difference with regard to parametric models is that the assumption of an age-dependent function is unnecessary, which is advantageous when the information behind the model is unknown, as one cause of error is often the choice of an inappropriate model. This paper reviews the various alternatives and presents their application to mortality data from the Valencia Region, Spain. The comparison leads us to the conclusion that the best model is a smoothing by means of Generalised Additive Models (GAM) with splines. The most…
Spatial moving average risk smoothing
2013
This paper introduces spatial moving average risk smoothing (SMARS) as a new way of carrying out disease mapping. This proposal applies the moving average ideas of time series theory to the spatial domain, making use of a spatial moving average process of unknown order to define dependence on the risk of a disease occurring. Correlation of the risks for different locations will be a function of m values (m being unknown), providing a rich class of correlation functions that may be reproduced by SMARS. Moreover, the distance (in terms of neighborhoods) that should be covered for two units to be found to make the correlation of their risks 0 is a quantity to be fitted by the model. This way, …
Infant mortality across species. A global probe of congenital abnormalities
2019
Infant mortality, by which we understand the postnatal stage during which mortality is declining, is a manifestation and embodiment of congenital abnormalities. Severe defects will translate into death occurring shortly after birth whereas slighter anomalies may contribute to death much later, possibly only in adult age. While for many species birth defects would be nearly impossible to identify, infant mortality provides a convenient global assessment. In the present paper we examine a broad range of species from mammals to fish to gastropods to insects. One of the objectives of our comparative analysis is to test a conjecture suggested by reliability engineering according to which the fre…
Spatio-temporal statistical methods in environmental and biometrical problems
2017
This is the editorial letter for the Special Issue dedicated to the VIII International Workshop on Spatio-temporal Modelling (METMAVIII) which took place in Valencia (Spain) from 1 to 3 June 2016, and to the second Galician-Portuguese meeting of Biometry, with applications to Health Sciences, Ecology and Environmental Sciences (BIOAPP2016) held in Santiago de Compostela (Spain), 30–2 July 2016. This special issue summarises and discusses selected peer-reviewed contributions related to spatial and spatio-temporal statistical methodologies comprising both new methodological approaches and a wide range of applications related to environmental and biometrical problems. Point processes, lattice …