Search results for "NARX"
showing 2 items of 2 documents
Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecasts data to predicting reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area.
2021
<p>Artificial reservoirs are one of the main water supply resources in the Mediterranean areas; their management can be strongly affected by the problems of drought and water scarcity. The reservoir water level is the result of the hydrological processes occurring in the upstream catchment, which, in turn, depend on meteorological variables, such as rainfall and temperature. It follows that a reliable forecast model of the meteorological forcing, along with a reliable water balance model, could enhance the correct management of a reservoir. With regard to the rainfall/temperature forecast model, the use of forecast climate data in the mid-term may provide further support for t…
Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecast data to predict reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area
2023
Prolonged droughts and water scarcity have become more frequent in recent years, exacerbating the problem of the artificial reservoirs management in the Mediterranean area. This study proposes a methodology which combines a Nonlinear AutoRegressive network with eXogenous input (NARX) data-driven model with Seasonal Forecasts (SFs) data, with the aim to predict the water volume stored in reservoirs at a mid-term scale, as requested by the local authority. The methodology is applied to four Sicilian reservoirs that experienced water scarcity in the recent past. SFs produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting are used to force the NARX models. Also, the reservoirs are …