6533b836fe1ef96bd12a0b2b

RESEARCH PRODUCT

Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecast data to predict reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area

Antonio FrancipaneElisa ArnoneLeonardo V. Noto

subject

NARX Mediterranean area data-scarce environment data driven seasonal forecasts bias correction water management in reservoirsNARXdata-scarce environmentSettore ICAR/02 - Costruzioni Idrauliche E Marittime E Idrologiabias correction; data driven; data-scarce environment; Mediterranean area; NARX; seasonal forecasts; water management in reservoirsdata drivenseasonal forecastswater management in reservoirsbias correctionMediterranean areaWater Science and Technology

description

Prolonged droughts and water scarcity have become more frequent in recent years, exacerbating the problem of the artificial reservoirs management in the Mediterranean area. This study proposes a methodology which combines a Nonlinear AutoRegressive network with eXogenous input (NARX) data-driven model with Seasonal Forecasts (SFs) data, with the aim to predict the water volume stored in reservoirs at a mid-term scale, as requested by the local authority. The methodology is applied to four Sicilian reservoirs that experienced water scarcity in the recent past. SFs produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting are used to force the NARX models. Also, the reservoirs are in a typical data-scarce environment, where very scarce or no measures at all are available. The results show that the NARXs have the capability to reproduce the volumes stored in the considered reservoirs for the investigated period up to four months in advance. The performance of the modeling system strictly depends on: (i) the goodness of climate forecasts and (ii) the strength of the autocorrelation for the water volumes.

yearjournalcountryeditionlanguage
2023-04-12Hydrological Sciences Journal
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2189521