0000000000247850
AUTHOR
Leonardo V. Noto
Nano- to Global-Scale Uncertainties in Terrestrial Enhanced Weathering.
Enhanced weathering (EW) is one of the most promising negative emissions technologies urgently needed to limit global warming to at least below 2 °C, a goal recently reaffirmed at the UN Global Climate Change conference (i.e., COP26). EW relies on the accelerated dissolution of crushed silicate rocks applied to soils and is considered a sustainable solution requiring limited technology. While EW has a high theoretical potential of sequestering CO2, research is still needed to provide accurate estimates of carbon (C) sequestration when applying different silicate materials across distinct climates and major soil types in combination with a variety of plants. Here we elaborate on fundamental …
Sensitivity of the SIMulation-EXtrapolation (SIMEX) methodology to mis-specification of the statistical properties of the measurement errors
In hydrometeorological and environmental studies, it is common to seek relations between two variables (predictand and predictor), one of which (predictor) is affected by uncertainties. These errors unavoidably affect the results of the analyses by providing erroneous estimates of the parameters of the predictor-predictand model. A possible solution is represented by the SIMulation-EXtrapolation (SIMEX) methodology. This approach follows two steps: (1) perturbation of the predictor with increasing levels of uncertainties (multiples of the known error variance); and (2) finding a relation between the model's parameters and level of uncertainty, which allows their extrapolation to the error-f…
Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part I): Induced Alterations on Climate Forcings and Hydrological Processes
In the last years, the Mediterranean basin has been widely recognized as one of the most vulnerable areas in the world to climate change; because of its high concentration of urban and industrial settlements, it is one of the most impacted areas of the world in terms of water scarcity. The present paper aims at reviewing the main observed and predicted effects of climate change on hydrological processes directly related to water availability in the Mediterranean Basin, mainly focusing on the last ten years of research. While an in-depth discussion about possible future water scarcity problem in the Mediterranean area and the sources of uncertainty affecting future climate projections and im…
Effects of precipitation seasonality, irrigation, vegetation cycle and soil type on enhanced weathering – modeling of cropland case studies across four sites
Enhanced weathering (EW) is a promising strategy for carbon sequestration, but several open questions remain regarding the actual rates of dissolution in conditions of natural hydroclimatic variability in comparison to laboratory experiments. In this context, models play a pivotal role, as they allow exploring and predicting EW dynamics under different environmental conditions. Here a comprehensive hydro-biogeochemical model has been applied to four cropland case studies (i.e., Sicily and the Padan plain in Italy and California and Iowa in the USA) characterized by different rainfall seasonality, vegetation (i.e., wheat for Sicily and California and corn for the Padan plain and Iowa), and s…
A paradigm of extreme rainfall pluvial floods in complex urban areas: the flood event of 15 July 2020 in Palermo (Italy)
Abstract. In the last years, some regions of the Mediterranean area are witnessing a progressive increase in extreme events, such as urban and flash floods, as a response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme rainfall events and their ground effects, which are often exacerbated by ever-growing urbanization. In such a context, the traditional defense of urban areas, which are usually based on urban drainage systems designed without regard to the impacts of urbanization and climate change on natural systems, may not be sufficient to deal with the risk deriving from the occurrence of such events. This study focuses on a very recent and particularly intense urban flood that occurred i…
Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecast data to predict reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area
Prolonged droughts and water scarcity have become more frequent in recent years, exacerbating the problem of the artificial reservoirs management in the Mediterranean area. This study proposes a methodology which combines a Nonlinear AutoRegressive network with eXogenous input (NARX) data-driven model with Seasonal Forecasts (SFs) data, with the aim to predict the water volume stored in reservoirs at a mid-term scale, as requested by the local authority. The methodology is applied to four Sicilian reservoirs that experienced water scarcity in the recent past. SFs produced at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting are used to force the NARX models. Also, the reservoirs are …
Exploring the use of multi-gene genetic programming in regional models for the simulation of monthly river runoff series
The use of new data-driven approaches based on the so-called expert systems to simulate runoff generation processes is a promising frontier that may allow for overcoming some modeling difficulties related to more complex traditional approaches. The present study highlights the potential of expert systems in creating regional hydrological models, for which they can benefit from the availability of large database. Different soft computing models for the reconstruction of the monthly natural runoff in river basins are explored, focusing on a new class of heuristic models, which is the Multi-Gene Genetic Programming (MGGP). The region under study is Sicily (Italy), where a regression based rain…
The potential of multilayer green roofs for stormwater management in urban area under semi-arid Mediterranean climate conditions
Different low impact development measures have been proposed to make cities more flood-resilient, and recent literature is paying great attention to the evaluation of their direct benefits in terms of flood risk mitigation and the numerous co-benefits that they may offer. This study describes an experimental prototype of a technologically advanced multilayer green roof installed in a Mediterranean urban area (i.e., Palermo, Italy) and explores the results of an analysis of data collected over a one-year monitoring period by a complex sensors network. Multilayer green roofs, or "blue-green" roofs (BGRs), are characterized by a high water retention capacity compared to traditional green roofs…