Search results for "OUTBREAKS"
showing 10 items of 185 documents
Real-time PCR detection of Ochroconis lascauxensis involved in the formation of black stains in the Lascaux Cave, France
2012
A real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) assay was developed to detect and quantify Ochroconis lascauxensis in the Lascaux Cave in France. This fungus is the principal causal agent of the black stains threatening the Paleolithic paintings of this UNESCO World Heritage Site. The black stains outbreak could not be stopped in spite of using intensive biocide treatments. A sensitive and time-saving protocol is needed for determining the extent of the colonization. Sets of primers that target the ITS and RPB2 regions were designed and evaluated for specificity against O. lascauxensis. Genomic DNA extracted from five species of Ochroconis and 13 other fungal species frequently isolated from ca…
Real-time parameter estimation of Zika outbreaks using model averaging
2017
SUMMARYEarly prediction of the final size of any epidemic and in particular for Zika disease outbreaks can be useful for health authorities in order to plan the response to the outbreak. The Richards model is often been used to estimate epidemiological parameters for arboviral diseases based on the reported cumulative cases in single- and multi-wave outbreaks. However, other non-linear models can also fit the data as well. Typically, one follows the so called post selection estimation procedure, i.e., selects the best fitting model out of the set of candidate models and ignores the model uncertainty in both estimation and inference since these procedures are based on a single model. In this…
Geographical spread of influenza incidence in Spain during the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave and the two succeeding influenza seasons
2014
SUMMARYThe aim of this study was to monitor the spatio-temporal spread of influenza incidence in Spain during the 2009 pandemic and the following two influenza seasons 2010–2011 and 2011–2012 using a Bayesian Poisson mixed regression model; and implement this model of geographical analysis in the Spanish Influenza Surveillance System to obtain maps of influenza incidence for every week. In the pandemic wave the maps showed influenza activity spreading from west to east. The 2010–2011 influenza epidemic wave plotted a north-west/south-east pattern of spread. During the 2011–2012 season the spread of influenza was geographically heterogeneous. The most important source of variability in the m…
Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models
2021
Abstract Background Temperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought. Methods Here, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population gr…
Nowcasting COVID‐19 incidence indicators during the Italian first outbreak
2020
A novel parametric regression model is proposed to fit incidence data typically collected during epidemics. The proposal is motivated by real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the main epidemiological indicators within the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. Accurate short-term predictions, including the potential effect of exogenous or external variables are provided. This ensures to accurately predict important characteristics of the epidemic (e.g., peak time and height), allowing for a better allocation of health resources over time. Parameter estimation is carried out in a maximum likelihood framework. All computational details required to reproduce the approach and replica…
Low-altitude outbreaks of human fascioliasis related with summer rainfall in Gilan province, Iran
2011
Following human fascioliasis outbreaks in 1988 and 1999 in Gilan province, northern Iran, efforts are now made to shed light on the seasonal pattern of fascioliasis transmission in this endemic area, taking into account snail host populations, climatic conditions and human cases. Populations of the intermediate host snail (Lymnaea spp.) peak in May and November, while there is a fourfold increase in the rate of human fascioliasis in February compared to that of September. Transmission is likely to occur mainly in late autumn and sporadically in late spring. Rainfall, seasonally analysed in periods of 3 years, indicates that accumulated summer rainfall may be related with the 1988 and 1999 h…
Outside-host growth of pathogens attenuates epidemiological outbreaks.
2012
Opportunist saprotrophic pathogens differ from obligatory pathogens due to their capability in host-independent growth in environmental reservoirs. Thus, the outside-host environment potentially influences host-pathogen dynamics. Despite the socio-economical importance of these pathogens, theory on their dynamics is practically missing. We analyzed a novel epidemiological model that couples outside-host density-dependent growth to host-pathogen dynamics. Parameterization was based on columnaris disease, a major hazard in fresh water fish farms caused by saprotrophic Flavobacterium columnare. Stability analysis and numerical simulations revealed that the outside-host growth maintains high pr…
Molecular epidemiology and forensic genetics: application to a hepatitis C virus transmission event at a hemodialysis unit.
2002
Molecular phylogenetic analyses are frequently used in epidemiologic testing, although only occasionally in forensics. Their acceptability is hampered by a lack of statistical confidence in the conclusions. However, maximum likelihood testing provides a sound statistical framework for the testing of phylogenetic hypotheses relevant for forensic analysis. We present the results of applying this method to a small hepatitis C outbreak produced in a hospital hemodialysis unit that involved 6 patients. Polymerase chain reaction products from a 472-nt fragment of the E1-E2 region, including the hypervariable region, HVR-1, of the hepatitis C virus genome were cloned, and an average of 10 clones/p…
Recombination drives genome evolution in outbreak-related Legionella pneumophila isolates.
2014
Legionella pneumophila is a strictly environmental pathogen and the etiological agent of legionellosis. It is known that non-vertical processes have a major role in the short-term evolution of pathogens, but little is known about the relevance of these and other processes in environmental bacteria. We report the whole-genome sequencing of 69 L. pneumophila strains linked to recurrent outbreaks in a single location (Alcoy, Spain) over 11 years. We found some examples where the genome sequences of isolates of the same sequence type and outbreak did not cluster together and were more closely related to sequences from different outbreaks. Our analyses identify 16 recombination events responsibl…
Genotyping of a nosocomial outbreak of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009
2011
Background: Epidemiological surveys have revealed outbreaks of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in several different contexts. Molecular characterization of the influenza virus could help to provide a more accurate description of these outbreaks. Objective: To genotype pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 isolates from an epidemiologically defined nosocomial outbreak. Study design: We sequenced the neuraminidase (NA) and hemagglutinin (HA) influenza A (H1N1) 2009 genes from ten HIV-positive patients involved in an epidemiologically defined outbreak in the Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (CMID) Department. Sequences were aligned to search for specific genetic features of the involv…