Search results for "Prediction."
showing 10 items of 490 documents
Polar motion prediction using the combination of SSA and Copula-based analysis
2018
The real-time estimation of polar motion (PM) is needed for the navigation of Earth satellite and interplanetary spacecraft. However, it is impossible to have real-time information due to the complexity of the measurement model and data processing. Various prediction methods have been developed. However, the accuracy of PM prediction is still not satisfactory even for a few days in the future. Therefore, new techniques or a combination of the existing methods need to be investigated for improving the accuracy of the predicted PM. There is a well-introduced method called Copula, and we want to combine it with singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method for PM prediction. In this study, first, we…
Exploiting Maximum Entropy method and ASTER data for assessing debris flow and debris slide susceptibility for the Giampilieri catchment (north-easte…
2016
This study aims at evaluating the performance of the Maximum Entropy method in assessing landslide susceptibility, exploiting topographic and multispectral remote sensing predictors. We selected the catchment of the Giampilieri stream, which is located in the north-eastern sector of Sicily (southern Italy), as test site. On 1 October 2009, a storm rainfall triggered in this area hundreds of debris flow/avalanche phenomena causing extensive economical damage and loss of life. Within this area a presence-only-based statistical method was applied to obtain susceptibility models capable of distinguishing future activation sites of debris flow and debris slide, which where the main source of fai…
Probabilistic Forecast for Northern New Zealand Seismic Process Based on a Forward Predictive Kernel Estimator
2011
In seismology predictive properties of the estimated intensity function are often pursued. For this purpose, we propose an estimation procedure in time, longitude, latitude and depth domains, based on the subsequent increments of likelihood obtained adding an observation one at a time. On the basis of this estimation approach a forecast of earthquakes of a given area of Northern New Zealand is provided, assuming that future earthquakes activity may be based on the smoothing of past earthquakes.
Fog Computing based traffic Safety for Connected Vulnerable Road Users
2019
Annually, millions of people die and many more sustain non-fatal injuries because of road traffic crashes. Despite multitude of countermeasures, the number of causalities and disabilities owing to traffic accidents are increasing each year causing grinding social, economic, and health problems. Due to their high volume and lack of protective-shells, more than half of road traffic deaths are imputed to vulnerable road users (VRUs): pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists. Mobile devices combined with fog computing can provide feasible solutions to protect VRUs by predicting collusions and warning users of an imminent traffic accident. Mobile devices’ ubiquity and high computational capabilit…
Prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus based on nutrition data
2021
Abstract Numerous predictive models for the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) exist, but a minority of them has implemented nutrition data so far, even though the significant effect of nutrition on the pathogenesis, prevention and management of T2DM has been established. Thus, in the present study, we aimed to build a predictive model for the risk of T2DM that incorporates nutrition data and calculates its predictive performance. We analysed cross-sectional data from 1591 individuals from the population-based Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) FF4 study (2013–14) and used a bootstrap enhanced elastic net penalised multivariate regression method in order to bu…
An entropy-based machine learning algorithm for combining macroeconomic forecasts
2019
This paper applies a Machine Learning approach with the aim of providing a single aggregated prediction from a set of individual predictions. Departing from the well-known maximum-entropy inference methodology, a new factor capturing the distance between the true and the estimated aggregated predictions presents a new problem. Algorithms such as ridge, lasso or elastic net help in finding a new methodology to tackle this issue. We carry out a simulation study to evaluate the performance of such a procedure and apply it in order to forecast and measure predictive ability using a dataset of predictions on Spanish gross domestic product.
A study on forecasting electricity production and consumption in smart cities and factories
2019
Abstract The electrical power sector must undergo a thorough metamorphosis to achieve the ambitious targets in greenhouse gas reduction set forth in the Paris Agreement of 2015. Reducing uncertainty about demand and, in case of renewable electricity generation, supply is important for the determination of spot electricity prices. In this work we propose and evaluate a context-based technique to anticipate the electricity production and consumption in buildings. We focus on a household with photovoltaics and energy storage system. We analyze the efficiency of Markov chains, stride predictors and also their combination into a hybrid predictor in modelling the evolution of electricity producti…
Short-term prediction of household electricity consumption: assessing weather sensitivity in a Mediterranean area
2008
Abstract Urban microclimatic variations, along with a rapid reduction of unit cost of air-conditioning (AC) equipments, can be addressed as some of the main causes of the raising residential energy demand in the more developed countries. This paper presents a forecasting model based on an Elman artificial neural network (ANN) for the short-time prediction of the household electricity consumption related to a suburban area. Due to the lack of information about the real penetration of electric appliances in the investigated area and their utilization profiles it was not possible to implement a statistical model to define the weather and climate sensitivities of appliance energy consumption. F…
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an integrated membrane bioreactor model
2015
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, although can be of primarily importance in mathematical modelling approaches, are scarcely applied in the field of membrane bioreactor (MBR). An integrated mathematical model for MBR is applied with the final aim to pin down sources of uncertainty in MBR modelling. The uncertainty analysis has been performed combining global sensitivity analysis (GSA) with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The model and methodology were applied to a University Cape Town pilot plant. Results show that the complexity of the modelled processes and the propagation effect from the influent to the effluent increase the uncertainty of the model predicti…
An NTC zone compliant knock onset prediction model for spark ignition engines
2015
Abstract Pollutant emissions reduction and energy saving policies increased the production of Spark Ignition (SI) engines operated with gaseous fuels. Natural Gas (NG) and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), thanks to their low cost and low environmental impact represent the best alternative. Bi-fuel engines, which may run either with gasoline or with gas (NG or LPG), widely spread in many countries thanks to their versatility, high efficiency and low pollutant emissions: gas fueled vehicles, as example, are allowed to run in many limited traffic zones. In the last years, supercharged SI engines fueled with either gasoline or gaseous fuel, spread in the market. Thermodynamic simulations, widely …