Search results for "Prediction."
showing 10 items of 490 documents
Use of Logistic Regression for Prediction of the Fate of Staphylococcus aureus in Pasteurized Milk in the Presence of Two Lytic Phages
2010
The use of bacteriophages provides an attractive approach to the fight against food-borne pathogenic bacteria, since they can be found in different environments and are unable to infect humans, both characteristics of which support their use as biocontrol agents. Two lytic bacteriophages, vB_SauS-phiIPLA35 (phiIPLA35) and vB_SauS-phiIPLA88 (phiIPLA88), previously isolated from the dairy environment inhibited the growth of Staphylococcus aureus. To facilitate the successful application of both bacteriophages as biocontrol agents, probabilistic models for predicting S. aureus inactivation by the phages in pasteurized milk were developed. A linear logistic regression procedure was used to desc…
Using neural networks to obtain indirect information about the state variables in an alcoholic fermentation process
2020
This work provides a manual design space exploration regarding the structure, type, and inputs of a multilayer neural network (NN) to obtain indirect information about the state variables in the alcoholic fermentation process. The main benefit of our application is to help experts reduce the time needed for making the relevant measurements and to increase the lifecycles of sensors in bioreactors. The novelty of this research is the flexibility of the developed application, the use of a great number of variables, and the comparative presentation of the results obtained with different NNs (feedback vs. feed-forward) and different learning algorithms (Back-Propagation vs. Levenberg&ndash
Modeling and predicting the Spanish Bachillerato academic results over the next few years using a random network model
2016
[EN] Academic performance is a concern of paramount importance in Spain, where around of 30% of the students in the last two courses in high school, before to access to the labor market or to the university, do not achieve the minimum knowledge required according to the Spanish educational law in force. In order to analyze this problem, we propose a random network model to study the dynamics of the academic performance in Spain. Our approach is based on the idea that both, good and bad study habits, are a mixture of personal decisions and influence of classmates. Moreover, in order to consider the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters, we perform a lot of simulations taking as t…
Holt–Winters Forecasting: An Alternative Formulation Applied to UK Air Passenger Data
2007
Abstract This paper provides a formulation for the additive Holt–Winters forecasting procedure that simplifies both obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of all unknowns, smoothing parameters and initial conditions, and the computation of point forecasts and reliable predictive intervals. The stochastic component of the model is introduced by means of additive, uncorrelated, homoscedastic and Normal errors, and then the joint distribution of the data vector, a multivariate Normal distribution, is obtained. In the case where a data transformation was used to improve the fit of the model, cumulative forecasts are obtained here using a Monte-Carlo approximation. This paper describes the metho…
Fitting generalized linear models with unspecified link function: A P-spline approach
2008
Generalized linear models (GLMs) outline a wide class of regression models where the effect of the explanatory variables on the mean of the response variable is modelled throughout the link function. The choice of the link function is typically overlooked in applications and the canonical link is commonly used. The estimation of GLMs with unspecified link function is discussed, where the linearity assumption between the link and the linear predictor is relaxed and the unspecified relationship is modelled flexibly by means of P-splines. An estimating algorithm is presented, alternating estimation of two working GLMs up to convergence. The method is applied to the analysis of quit behavior of…
A note on adjusted responses, fitted values and residuals in Generalized Linear Models
2014
Adjusted responses, adjusted fitted values and adjusted residuals are known to play in Generalized Linear Models the role played in Linear Models by observations, fitted values and ordinary residuals. We think this parallelism, which was widely recognized and used in the early literature on Generalized Linear Models, has been somewhat overlooked in more recent presentations. We revise this parallelism, systematizing and proving some results that are either scattered or not satisfactorily spelled out in the literature. In particular, we formally derive the asymptotic dispersion matrix of the (scaled) adjusted residuals, by proving that in Generalized Linear Models the fitted values are asym…
Analysis and modelling of wind speed in New York
2010
In this paper we propose an ARMA time-series model for the wind speed at a single spatial location, and estimate it on in-sample data recorded in three different wind farm regions in New York state. The data have a three-hour granularity, but based on applications to financial wind derivatives contracts, we also consider daily average wind speeds. We demonstrate that there are large discrepancies in the behaviour of daily average and three-hourly wind speed records. The validation procedure based on out-of-sample observations reflects that the proposed model is reliable and can be used for various practical applications, like, for instance, weather prediction, pricing of financial wind cont…
Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for a joint model for prostate cancer risk and longitudinal prostate-specific antigen data
2015
The paper describes the use of frequentist and Bayesian shared-parameter joint models of longitudinal measurements of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). The motivating dataset corresponds to the screening arm of the Spanish branch of the European Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer study. The results show that PSA is highly associated with the risk of being diagnosed with PCa and that there is an age-varying effect of PSA on PCa risk. Both the frequentist and Bayesian paradigms produced very close parameter estimates and subsequent 95% confidence and credibility intervals. Dynamic estimations of disease-free probabilities obtained using Bayesian infe…
Varying-time random effects models for longitudinal data: unmixing and temporal interpolation of remote-sensing data
2008
Remote sensing is a helpful tool for crop monitoring or vegetation-growth estimation at a country or regional scale. However, satellite images generally have to cope with a compromise between the time frequency of observations and their resolution (i.e. pixel size). When concerned with high temporal resolution, we have to work with information on the basis of kilometric pixels, named mixed pixels, that represent aggregated responses of multiple land cover. Disaggreggation or unmixing is then necessary to downscale from the square kilometer to the local dynamic of each theme (crop, wood, meadows, etc.). Assuming the land use is known, that is to say the proportion of each theme within each m…
Global stability of protein folding from an empirical free energy function
2013
The principles governing protein folding stand as one of the biggest challenges of Biophysics. Modeling the global stability of proteins and predicting their tertiary structure are hard tasks, due in part to the variety and large number of forces involved and the difficulties to describe them with sufficient accuracy. We have developed a fast, physics-based empirical potential, intended to be used in global structure prediction methods. This model considers four main contributions: Two entropic factors, the hydrophobic effect and configurational entropy, and two terms resulting from a decomposition of close-packing interactions, namely the balance of the dispersive interactions of folded an…