Search results for "Prediction."
showing 10 items of 490 documents
Ethnographic context and spatial coherence of climate indicators for farming communities : a multi-regional comparative assessment
2015
Accurate seasonal predictions of rainfall may reduce climatic risks that farmers are usually faced with across the tropical and subtropical zones. However, although regional-scale seasonal amounts have regularly been forecasted since 1997/98, the practical use of these seasonal predictions is still limited by myriad factors. This paper synthesizes the main resultsof a multi-disciplinary ethnographic and climatic project (PICREVAT). Its main objective was to seek the climatic information ? beyond the seasonal amounts ? critical for crops, both as an actual constraint to crop yields and as identified by the current and past practices and perceptions of farmers. A second goal was to confront t…
Applying Numerical Weather Prediction Models to the Production of New European Wind Atlas : Sensitivity studies of the wind climate to the planetary …
2018
Reliable and precise information about the wind speed climate is crucial for the development of wind energy. Meteorological processes in the mesoscale (2 – 200 km) can be represented using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models such as the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF), but before their application for creating wind energy atlases, their results and sensitivity to modelling parameters should be investigated. Here the WRF model wind speed results for the year 2015 for the Baltic Sea region are investigated, and the effect of the planetary boundary layer parametrization scheme is analyzed.
Verification of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Results for Energy Applications in Latvia
2014
Abstract Wind power forecasting greatly relies on wind speed forecasts. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are a reliable source of meteorological forecasts and they can also be used in wind resource assessment. In this work we carry out the verification of wind speed results from the NWP model Weather Research and Forecast (WRF), grid resolution - 3 km. Results from 172 model runs in May and November 2013 are compared with meteorological observations in 24 stations in Latvia. The model usually predicts wind speed values that are larger than the observed and the diurnal cycle has a large impact on verification results. Verification results obtained by interpolating model results betw…
Sensory and chemical characterisation of Sauvignon blanc wine: Influence of source of origin
2011
Abstract The main objective of the study was to investigate influence of geographical location on volatile composition and perceived flavour profile of Sauvignon wines of New Zealand (Marlborough), French (Sancerre; Loire; Saint Bris), and Austrian (Styria) origin. Nineteen New Zealand wine professionals evaluated 18 Sauvignon wines, 6 from each source of origin, by sensory methods that included intensity ratings to experimenter-provided descriptors, typicality ratings, and classification tasks (non-directed and directed sorting). Results demonstrated that wines from the three sources of origin were separated by sensory analyses, with New Zealand wines dominated by perceived green character…
Multi-physical modelling of reverse electrodialysis
2017
Abstract Reverse electrodialysis (RED) is an electrochemical membrane process that directly converts the energy associated with the concentration difference between two salt solutions into electrical energy by means of a selective controlled mixing. The physics of RED involves the interaction of several phenomena of different nature and space-time scales. Therefore, mathematical modelling and numerical simulation tools are crucial for performance prediction. In this work, a multi-physical modelling approach for the simulation of RED units was developed. A periodic portion of a single cell pair was simulated in two dimensions. Fluid dynamics was simulated by the Navier-Stokes and continuity …
Dip Phenomenon in High-Curved Turbulent Flows and Application of Entropy Theory
2018
The estimation of velocity profile in turbulent open channels is a difficult task due to the significant effects of the secondary flow. The present paper investigates the mechanism of the velocity-dip phenomenon, whereby the location of the maximum velocity appears to be below the free surface. Previous studies conducted in straight channels relate the mechanism of the velocity-dip phenomenon to secondary flow induced by anisotropy of turbulence. This work focuses on high-curved channels where the secondary motion, which is also induced by the channel’s curvature, evolves along the bend. The width-to-depth ratio, B/h, is one of the most important parameters that are affecting the secondary …
Application of LSTM architectures for next frame forecasting in Sentinel-1 images time series
2020
L'analyse prédictive permet d'estimer les tendances des évènements futurs. De nos jours, les algorithmes Deep Learning permettent de faire de bonnes prédictions. Cependant, pour chaque type de problème donné, il est nécessaire de choisir l'architecture optimale. Dans cet article, les modèles Stack-LSTM, CNN-LSTM et ConvLSTM sont appliqués à une série temporelle d'images radar sentinel-1, le but étant de prédire la prochaine occurrence dans une séquence. Les résultats expérimentaux évalués à l'aide des indicateurs de performance tels que le RMSE et le MAE, le temps de traitement et l'index de similarité SSIM, montrent que chacune des trois architectures peut produire de bons résultats en fon…
Event-Based Trajectory Prediction Using Spiking Neural Networks
2021
International audience; In recent years, event-based sensors have been combined with spiking neural networks (SNNs) to create a new generation of bio-inspired artificial vision systems. These systems can process spatio-temporal data in real time, and are highly energy efficient. In this study, we used a new hybrid event-based camera in conjunction with a multi-layer spiking neural network trained with a spike-timing-dependent plasticity learning rule. We showed that neurons learn from repeated and correlated spatio-temporal patterns in an unsupervised way and become selective to motion features, such as direction and speed. This motion selectivity can then be used to predict ball trajectory…
Climats tropicaux d'aujourd'hui à demain : variabilité et changements
2008
Present and future tropical climates : their climate variability and their climate changes The oriffttality of tropical climates is re-examined under the light of climate variability and climate change, both present and future . The interannual variability of rainfall is on average larger in the tropics than in the extra-tropics, but it is also spatially more contrasted. Human communities have often responded to this constraint through efficient coping strategies. The regions showing the most variable climate do not necessarily have lower population densities, an indication that in the long run variability is not decisive. However, the recent demographic growth of these regions is often low…
Agrégation de données spatiales hétérogènes pour l’évaluation d’un modèle
2017
National audience