Search results for "Prediction"
showing 10 items of 511 documents
Bayesian forecasting with the Holt–Winters model
2010
Exponential smoothing methods are widely used as forecasting techniques in inventory systems and business planning, where reliable prediction intervals are also required for a large number of series. This paper describes a Bayesian forecasting approach based on the Holt–Winters model, which allows obtaining accurate prediction intervals. We show how to build them incorporating the uncertainty due to the smoothing unknowns using a linear heteroscedastic model. That linear formulation simplifies obtaining the posterior distribution on the unknowns; a random sample from such posterior, which is not analytical, is provided using an acceptance sampling procedure and a Monte Carlo approach gives …
Risk aversion in prediction markets: A framed-field experiment
2016
International audience; To make better decisions today, companies and other economic agents are interested in getting accurate predictions of future events. Prediction markets can, at least potentially, give those accurate forecasts for the probability of the event by aggregating information from traders. However, formal studies highlight that the risk attitudes of market participants may bias the market equilibrium prices, and consequently make the prediction unreliable. This research examines the effect of participants' risk attitudes on prediction market prices, through a framed field experiment on the two semifinals at the 2015 NCAA Men's Division Basketball Tournament. The results of t…
Robust Assembly Assistance Using Informed Tree Search with Markov Chains
2022
Manual work accounts for one of the largest workgroups in the European manufacturing sector, and improving the training capacity, quality, and speed brings significant competitive benefits to companies. In this context, this paper presents an informed tree search on top of a Markov chain that suggests possible next assembly steps as a key component of an innovative assembly training station for manual operations. The goal of the next step suggestions is to provide support to inexperienced workers or to assist experienced workers by providing choices for the next assembly step in an automated manner without the involvement of a human trainer on site. Data stemming from 179 experiment partici…
Prediction of Tool Wear Progress in Machining of Carbon Steel using different Tool Wear Mechanismsl
2008
In this paper the prediction of tool wear on carbide uncoated tools was taken into account. In particular, two different tool wear models based on the diffusion mechanism and on the abrasion mechanism were considered. The calibration of the utilized models was done using the results obtained by experimental analysis performed on an orthogonally machined AISI 1020 tube. Once the calibration was executed, numerical simulations, for both the utilized tool wear models, were simultaneously performed with the aim to test the capability of the proposed numerical procedure. The comparison between the two tool wear mechanisms for predicting the flank tool wear is discussed in the paper.
Determination of lifetime probabilities of carbon fibre composite plates and pressure vessels for hydrogen storage
2011
International audience; It is shown that an analogy can be made between the failure of unidirectional carbon fibre reinforced epoxy plates and filament wound carbon fibre composite pressure vessels and that their strengths and failure probabilities can be determined. Fibres in filament wound composite structures are placed on geodesic paths around the mandrel, which becomes the liner; so that when the structure is pressurised the fibres are only subjected to tensile forces, as in a unidirectional composite. Multiscale modelling reveals that composite failure is controlled by fibre breakage and that clustering of fibre breaks determines ultimate reliability of the structure. Time dependent r…
Visual indicator for the detection of end-of-life criterion for composite high pressure vessels for hydrogen storage
2012
International audience; A model to predict the accumulation of fibre breaks in advanced composites, that takes into account all physical phenomena implicated in fibre failure (i.e. the random nature, stress transfer due to breaks, fibre debonding and viscosity of the matrix) shows clearly that the failure of a unidirectional composite structure results in the formation of random fibre breaks which at higher loads coalesce into clusters of broken fibres. This stage of development is followed almost immediately by failure. This has direct application to filament wound pressure vessels of the type used to store hydrogen under high pressure. A novel, cost effective, method of revealing developi…
Influence of geometrical ratios in forgeability of complex shapes during hot forging of Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy
2014
Abstract Titanium alloys are considered desirable materials when both mechanical properties and weight reduction are requested at the same time. This class of materials is widely used in application fields, like aeronautical, in which common steels and light-weight materials, like aluminum alloys, are not able to satisfy all operative service conditions. Most of manufacturing processes of titanium alloy components are based on machining operations, which allow obtaining very accurate final shapes but, at the same time, are affected by several disadvantage like material waste and general production costs. During the last decade, the forging processes for titanium alloys have attracted greate…
Soft Sensor Transferability between Lines of a Sulfur Recovery Unit
2021
Abstract Soft Sensors (SSs) are mathematical models that allow real-time estimation of hard-to-measure variables as a function of easy-to-measure ones in an industrial process, emulating the behavior of existing sensors when they are, for instance, taken off for maintenance. The Sulfur Recovery Unit (SRU) from a refinery is taken in exam. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) can capture the nonlinearity of such process but present a high complexity training and a very time-consuming structure optimization. For this reason, strategies to use pre-existing models are here examined by testing the transferability of the SSs between two parallel lines of the process.
Unbiased Branches: An Open Problem
2007
The majority of currently available dynamic branch predictors base their prediction accuracy on the previous k branch outcomes. Such predictors sustain high prediction accuracy but they do not consider the impact of unbiased branches, which are difficult-to-predict. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of unbiased branches in terms of prediction accuracy on a range of branch difference predictors using prediction by partial matching, multiple Markov prediction and neural-based prediction. Since our focus is on the impact that unbiased branches have on processor performance, timing issues and hardware costs are out of scope of this investigation. Our simulation results, with the SPEC2000 in…
A geo-statistical predictive approach to the Habitat mapping of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems along the northern Sicily inner continental shelf (south…
2016
The main aim of this work is to statistically predict the distribution of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs) along the continental shelf regions of the northern Sicilian margin (southern Mediterranean). The considered habitats, already mapped in the area on a qualitative base, are the Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa seagrasses and the Coralligenous biocenosis. Posidonia oceanica and Coralligenous are considered as VMEs owing to their value as environmental indicators and biodiversity hotspots in coastal marine areas. For this reason, several actions were aimed in recent years to their complete characterization and mapping. The study area is located in the continental shelf of the n…