Search results for "Probability Theory"

System Times and Channel Availability for Secondary Transmissions in CRNs: A Dependability Theory based Analysis

2017

[EN] Reliability is of fundamental importance for the performance of secondary networks in cognitive radio networks (CRNs). To date, most studies have focused on predicting reliability parameters based on prior statistics of traffic patterns from user behavior. In this paper, we define a few reliability metrics for channel access in multichannel CRNs that are analogous to the concepts of reliability and availability in classical dependability theory. Continuous-time Markov chains are employed to model channel available and unavailable time intervals based on channel occupancy status. The impact on user access opportunities based on channel availability is investigated by analyzing the stead…

Multivariate statistical analysis for water demand modelling: implementation, performance analysis, and comparison with the PRP model

2015

Water demand is the driving force behind hydraulic dynamics in water distribution systems. Consequently, it is crucial to accurately estimate the actual water use to develop reliable simulation models. In this study, copula-based multivariate analysis was proposed and used for demand prediction for a given return period. The analysis was applied to water consumption data collected in the water distribution network of Palermo (Italy). The approach produced consistent demand patterns and could be a powerful tool when coupled with water distribution network models for design or analysis problems. The results were compared with those obtained using a classical water demand model, the Poisson re…

Multivariate Statistical Analysis for Water Demand Modeling

2014

The actual level of water demand is the driving force behind the hydraulic dynamics in water distribution systems. Consequently, it is crucial to estimate it as accurately as possible in order to result in reliable simulation models. In this paper, a copula-based multivariate analysis has been proposed and used for demand prediction for given return period. The analysis is applied to water consumption data collected in the water distribution network of Palermo (Italy). The approach showed to produce consisted demand patterns and to be a powerful tool to be coupled with water distribution network models for design or analysis problems. (C) 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Improving Reliability of Road Safety Estimates Based on High Correlated Accident Counts

2007

Calibrating a safety performance function (SPF) with many years of accident data creates a temporal correlation that traditional model calibration procedures cannot deal with. It is well known that generalized estimating equations (GEE) models are able to incorporate trends into accident data and thus overcome difficulties in accounting for correlation; the usual application of GEEs to safety analysis uses robust (or sandwich) estimates of regression coefficients under the independence hypothesis for the working correlation matrix. This practice is justified by the robustness of the GEE procedure against misspecification of the response correlation structure. Nevertheless, with this method…

A Comprehensive Check of Usle-Based Soil Loss Prediction Models at the Sparacia (South Italy) Site

2020

At first, in this paper a general definition of the event rainfall-runoff erosivity factor for the USLE-based models, REFe = (QR)b1(EI30)b2, in which QR is the event runoff coefficient, EI30 is the single-storm erosion index and b1 and b2 are coefficients, was introduced. The rainfall-runoff erosivity factors of the USLE (b1 = 0, b2 = 1), USLE-M (b1 = b2 = 1), USLE-MB (b1 ≠ 1, b2 = 1), USLE-MR (b1 = 1, b2 ≠ 1), USLE-MM (b1 = b2 ≠ 1) and USLE-M2 (b1 ≠ b2 ≠ 1) can be defined using REFe. Then, the different expressions of REFe were simultaneously tested against a dataset of normalized bare plot soil losses, AeN, collected at the Sparacia (south Italy) site. As expected, the poorest AeN predict…

Management of uncertain pairwise comparisons in AHP through probabilistic concepts

2019

Abstract Fast and judicious decision-making is paramount for the success of many activities and processes. However, various degrees of difficulty may affect the achievement of effective and optimal solutions. Decisions should ideally meet the best trade-off among as many of the involved factors as possible, especially in the case of complex problems. Substantial cognitive and technical skills are indispensable, while not always sufficient, to carry out optimal evaluations. One of the most common causes of wrong decisions derives from uncertainty and vagueness in making forecasts or attributing judgments. The literature shows numerous efforts towards the optimization and modeling of uncertai…

Proceedings of MDP2007 international Symposium on Recent Advances in Mechanics (structural/solid) Dynamical Systems (deterministic/stochastic) Probab…

2009

Completing the logarithmic scoring rule for assessing probability distributions

2012

We propose and motivate an expanded version of the logarithmic score for forecasting distributions, termed the Total Log score. It incorporates the usual logarithmic score, which is recognised as incomplete and has been mistakenly associated with the likelihood principle. The expectation of the Total Log score equals the Negentropy plus the Negextropy of the distribution. We examine both discrete and continuous forms of the scoring rule, and we discuss issues of scaling for scoring assessments. The analysis suggests the dual tracking of the quadratic score along with the usual log score when assessing the qualities of probability distributions. An application to the sequential scoring of f…

Interpreting Connexive Principles in Coherence-Based Probability Logic

2021

We present probabilistic approaches to check the validity of selected connexive principles within the setting of coherence. Connexive logics emerged from the intuition that conditionals of the form If \(\mathord {\thicksim }A\), then A, should not hold, since the conditional’s antecedent \(\mathord {\thicksim }A\) contradicts its consequent A. Our approach covers this intuition by observing that for an event A the only coherent probability assessment on the conditional event \(A|\bar{A}\) is \(p(A|\bar{A})=0\). Moreover, connexive logics aim to capture the intuition that conditionals should express some “connection” between the antecedent and the consequent or, in terms of inferences, valid…

Probabilistic squares and hexagons of opposition under coherence

2017

Various semantics for studying the square of opposition and the hexagon of opposition have been proposed recently. We interpret sentences by imprecise (set-valued) probability assessments on a finite sequence of conditional events. We introduce the acceptability of a sentence within coherence-based probability theory. We analyze the relations of the square and of the hexagon in terms of acceptability. Then, we show how to construct probabilistic versions of the square and of the hexagon of opposition by forming suitable tripartitions of the set of all coherent assessments on a finite sequence of conditional events. Finally, as an application, we present new versions of the square and of the…