Search results for "Probability."
showing 10 items of 3396 documents
Accounting for preferential sampling in species distribution models
2019
D. C., A. L. Q. and F. M. would like to thank the Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (Spain) for financial support (jointly financed by the European Regional Development Fund) via Research Grants MTM2013‐42323‐P and MTM2016‐77501‐P, and ACOMP/2015/202 from Generalitat Valenciana (Spain). Species distribution models (SDMs) are now being widely used in ecology for management and conservation purposes across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine realms. The increasing interest in SDMs has drawn the attention of ecologists to spatial models and, in particular, to geostatistical models, which are used to associate observations of species occurrence or abundance with environmental covariates in a fi…
Calibrating Expert Assessments Using Hierarchical Gaussian Process Models
2020
Expert assessments are routinely used to inform management and other decision making. However, often these assessments contain considerable biases and uncertainties for which reason they should be calibrated if possible. Moreover, coherently combining multiple expert assessments into one estimate poses a long-standing problem in statistics since modeling expert knowledge is often difficult. Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian model for expert calibration in a task of estimating a continuous univariate parameter. The model allows experts' biases to vary as a function of the true value of the parameter and according to the expert's background. We follow the fully Bayesian approach (the s…
Examining nonstationarity in the recruitment dynamics of fishes using Bayesian change point analysis
2017
Marine ecosystems can undergo regime shifts, which result in nonstationarity in the dynamics of the fish populations inhabiting them. The assumption of time-invariant parameters in stock–recruitment models can lead to severe errors when forecasting renewal ability of stocks that experience shifts in their recruitment dynamics. We present a novel method for fitting stock–recruitment models using the Bayesian online change point detection algorithm, which is able to cope with sudden changes in the model parameters. We validate our method using simulations and apply it to empirical data of four demersal fishes in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence. We show that all of the stocks have experience…
Comparison of Bayesian and numerical optimization-based diet estimation on herbivorous zooplankton
2020
Consumer diet estimation with biotracer-based mixing models provides valuable information about trophic interactions and the dynamics of complex ecosystems. Here, we assessed the performance of four Bayesian and three numerical optimization-based diet estimation methods for estimating the diet composition of herbivorous zooplankton using consumer fatty acid (FA) profiles and resource library consisting of the results of homogeneous diet feeding experiments. The method performance was evaluated in terms of absolute errors, central probability interval checks, the success in identifying the primary resource in the diet, and the ability to detect the absence of resources in the diet. Despite …
Incorporating Biotic Information in Species Distribution Models: A Coregionalized Approach
2021
In this work, we discuss the use of a methodological approach for modelling spatial relationships among species by means of a Bayesian spatial coregionalized model. Inference and prediction is performed using the integrated nested Laplace approximation methodology to reduce the computational burden. We illustrate the performance of the coregionalized model in species interaction scenarios using both simulated and real data. The simulation demonstrates the better predictive performance of the coregionalized model with respect to the univariate models. The case study focus on the spatial distribution of a prey species, the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), and one of its predator spe…
SHAPE MATTERS: EFFECT OF POINT MUTATIONS ON RNA SECONDARY STRUCTURE
2013
A suitable model to dive into the properties of genotype-phenotype landscapes is the relationship between RNA sequences and their corresponding minimum free energy secondary structures. Relevant issues related to molecular evolvability and robustness to mutations have been studied in this framework. Here, we analyze the one-mutant neighborhood of the predicted secondary structure of 46 different RNAs, including tRNAs, viroids, larger molecules such as Hepatitis-δ virus, and several random sequences. The probability distribution of the effect of point mutations in linear structural motifs of the secondary structure is well fit by Pareto or Lognormal probability distributions functions, indep…
Unsupervised Classification of Acoustic Echoes from Two Krill Species in the Southern Ocean (Ross Sea)
2021
This work presents a computational methodology able to automatically classify the echoes of two krill species recorded in the Ross sea employing scientific echo-sounder at three different frequencies (38, 120 and 200 kHz). The goal of classifying the gregarious species represents a time-consuming task and is accomplished by using differences and/or thresholds estimated on the energy features of the insonified targets. Conversely, our methodology takes into account energy, morphological and depth features of echo data, acquired at different frequencies. Internal validation indices of clustering were used to verify the ability of the clustering in recognizing the correct number of species. Th…
The analysis of convergence in ecological indicators: An application to the Mediterranean fisheries
2017
9 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables
Assessing the spatiotemporal persistence of fish distributions: a case study on two red mullet species (Mullus surmuletus and M. barbatus) in the wes…
2020
Understanding the spatiotemporal persistence of fish distributions is key to defining fish hotspots and effective fisheries-restricted areas (FRAs). Hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal models provide an excellent framework to understand these distributions, as they can accommodate different spatiotemporal behaviour in the data, primarily due to their flexibility. The aim of this research was to characterize the fundamental behavioural patterns of fish as persistent, opportunistic or progressive by comparing different spatiotemporal model structures in order to provide better information for marine spatial planning. To illustrate this method, the spatiotemporal distributions of 2 sympatric …
Bayesian analysis improves experimental studies about temporal patterning of aggression in fish.
2017
Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-11T17:15:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2017-12-01 Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) This study aims to describe a Bayesian Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM) approach for longitudinal designs in fish's experimental aggressive behavior studies as an alternative to classical methods In particular, we discuss the advantages of Bayesian analysis in dealing with combined variables, non-statistically significant results and required sample size using an experiment of angelfish (Pterophyllum scalare) species as case study. Groups of 3 individuals were subjected to daily observations recorded for 10 min durin…