Search results for "Probability."
showing 10 items of 3396 documents
A global occurrence database of the Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus
2021
The Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus is a portunid native to the western Atlantic, from New England to Uruguay. The species was introduced in Europe in 1901 where it has become invasive; additionally, a significant northward expansion has been emphasized in its native range. Here we present a harmonized global compilation of C. sapidus occurrences from native and non-native distribution ranges derived from online databases (GBIF, BISON, OBIS, and iNaturalist) as well as from unpublished and published sources. The dataset consists of 40,388 geo-referenced occurrences, 39,824 from native and 564 from non-native ranges, recorded in 53 countries. The implementation of quality controls imp…
Dynamic complexities in host-parasitoid interaction
1999
In the 1970s ecological research detected chaos and other forms of complex dynamics in simple population dynamics models, initiating a new research tradition in ecology. However, the investigations of complex population dynamics have mainly concentrated on single populations and not on higher dimensional ecological systems. Here we report a detailed study of the complicated dynamics occurring in a basic discrete-time model of host-parasitoid interaction. The complexities include (a) non-unique dynamics, meaning that several attractors coexist, (b) basins of attraction (defined as the set of the initial conditions leading to a certain type of an attractor) with fractal properties (pattern of…
Hierarchical log Gaussian Cox process for regeneration in uneven-aged forests
2021
We propose a hierarchical log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) for point patterns, where a set of points x affects another set of points y but not vice versa. We use the model to investigate the effect of large trees to the locations of seedlings. In the model, every point in x has a parametric influence kernel or signal, which together form an influence field. Conditionally on the parameters, the influence field acts as a spatial covariate in the intensity of the model, and the intensity itself is a non-linear function of the parameters. Points outside the observation window may affect the influence field inside the window. We propose an edge correction to account for this missing data. The par…
Variational Approximations for Generalized Linear Latent Variable Models
2017
Generalized linear latent variable models (GLLVMs) are a powerful class of models for understanding the relationships among multiple, correlated responses. Estimation, however, presents a major challenge, as the marginal likelihood does not possess a closed form for nonnormal responses. We propose a variational approximation (VA) method for estimating GLLVMs. For the common cases of binary, ordinal, and overdispersed count data, we derive fully closed-form approximations to the marginal log-likelihood function in each case. Compared to other methods such as the expectation-maximization algorithm, estimation using VA is fast and straightforward to implement. Predictions of the latent variabl…
Environmental Variability and Semelparity vs. Iteroparity as Life Histories
2002
Research on the evolution of life histories addresses the topic of fitness trade-offs between semelparity (reproducing once in a lifetime) and iteroparity (repeated reproductive bouts per lifetime). Bulmer (1994) derived the relationship v+P(A)<1 (P(A) is the adult survival;vb(S) and b(S) are the offspring numbers for iteroparous and semelparous breeding strategies, respectively), under which a resident semelparous population cannot be invaded by an iteroparous mutant when the underlying population dynamics are stable. We took Bulmer's population dynamics, and added noise in juvenile and adult survival and in offspring numbers. Long-term coexistence of the two strategies is possible in much…
The role of noise on the steady state distributions of phytoplankton populations
2016
The spatio-temporal behaviour of total chlorophyll concentration is investigated in the middle of the Tyrrhenian Sea by using a stochastic approach. The study is based on a reaction-diffusion-taxis model, which is used to analyse the dynamics of five phytoplankton groups, responsible for about 80% of the total chlorophyll a inside the euphotic zone of the water column. The analysis is performed by considering: (i) the intraspecific competition of the phytoplanktonic groups for limiting factors, i.e. light intensity and nutrient concentration, (ii) the seasonal changes of environmental variables, and (iii) the random fluctuations of the components of the velocity field and temperature. Speci…
Effects of patch number and dispersal patterns on population dynamics and synchrony.
2000
In this paper, we examine the effects of patch number and different dispersal patterns on dynamics of local populations and on the level of synchrony between them. Local population renewal is governed by the Ricker model and we also consider asymmetrical dispersal as well as the presence of environmental heterogeneity. Our results show that both population dynamics and the level of synchrony differ markedly between two and a larger number of local populations. For two patches different dispersal rules give very versatile dynamics. However, for a larger number of local populations the dynamics are similar irrespective of the dispersal rule. For example, for the parameter values yielding stab…
Spatio-Temporal model structures with shared components for semi-continuous species distribution modelling
2017
Abstract Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamism and environmental relationships of species is essential for the conservation of natural resources. Many spatio-temporally sampled processes result in continuous positive [ 0 , ∞ ) abundance datasets that have many zero values observed in areas that lie outside their optimum niche. In such cases the most common option is to use two-part or hurdle models, which fit independent models and consequently independent environmental effects to occurrence and conditional-to-presence abundance. This may be correct in some cases, but not as much in others where the detection probability is related to the abundance. The aim of this work is to infer the…
Seed Bank in Annuals: Competition Between Banker and Non-banker Morphs
2002
Seed bank is a plant life history strategy against the unpredictability of the biotic and the abiotic environment. We simulated competition between a seed banking and a non-banking morph of an annual plant. A constant fraction of the banker morph seeds was allocated to the seed bank, where they had a constant mortality and germination rate. All surviving seeds of the non-banker morph germinated in the next generation. The seedlings of both morphs experienced similar density-dependent mortality. Whether one of the morphs wins or the morphs coexist was evaluated from parameter space plots and statistically with logistic regression analysis. All parameters of the model had a significant, nonli…
Global functional variation in alpine vegetation
2021
International audience; Questions. What are the functional trade-offs of vascular plant species in global alpine ecosystems? How is functional variation related to vegetation zones, climatic groups and biogeographic realms? What is the relative contribution of macroclimate and evolutionary history in shaping the functional variation of alpine plant communities? Location. Global. Methods. We compiled a data set of alpine vegetation with 5,532 geo-referenced plots, 1,933 species and six plant functional traits. We used principal component analysis to quantify functional trade-offs among species and trait probability density to assess the functional dissimilarity of alpine vegetation in differ…