Search results for "Probability."
showing 10 items of 3396 documents
On a representation theorem for finitely exchangeable random vectors
2016
A random vector $X=(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ with the $X_i$ taking values in an arbitrary measurable space $(S, \mathscr{S})$ is exchangeable if its law is the same as that of $(X_{\sigma(1)}, \ldots, X_{\sigma(n)})$ for any permutation $\sigma$. We give an alternative and shorter proof of the representation result (Jaynes \cite{Jay86} and Kerns and Sz\'ekely \cite{KS06}) stating that the law of $X$ is a mixture of product probability measures with respect to a signed mixing measure. The result is "finitistic" in nature meaning that it is a matter of linear algebra for finite $S$. The passing from finite $S$ to an arbitrary one may pose some measure-theoretic difficulties which are avoided by our p…
Probability Propagation in Selected Aristotelian Syllogisms
2019
This paper continues our work on a coherence-based probability semantics for Aristotelian syllogisms (Gilio, Pfeifer, and Sanfilippo, 2016; Pfeifer and Sanfilippo, 2018) by studying Figure III under coherence. We interpret the syllogistic sentence types by suitable conditional probability assessments. Since the probabilistic inference of $P|S$ from the premise set ${P|M, S|M}$ is not informative, we add $p(M|(S ee M))>0$ as a probabilistic constraint (i.e., an ``existential import assumption'') to obtain probabilistic informativeness. We show how to propagate the assigned premise probabilities to the conclusion. Thereby, we give a probabilistic meaning to all syllogisms of Figure~III. We…
Conjunction and Disjunction Among Conditional Events
2017
We generalize, in the setting of coherence, the notions of conjunction and disjunction of two conditional events to the case of n conditional events. Given a prevision assessment on the conjunction of two conditional events, we study the set of coherent extensions for the probabilities of the two conditional events. Then, we introduce by a progressive procedure the notions of conjunction and disjunction for n conditional events. Moreover, by defining the negation of conjunction and of disjunction, we show that De Morgan’s Laws still hold. We also show that the associative and commutative properties are satisfied. Finally, we examine in detail the conjunction for a family \(\mathcal F\) of t…
Conditional Random Quantities and Compounds of Conditionals
2013
In this paper we consider finite conditional random quantities and conditional previsions assessments in the setting of coherence. We use a suitable representation for conditional random quantities; in particular the indicator of a conditional event $E|H$ is looked at as a three-valued quantity with values 1, or 0, or $p$, where $p$ is the probability of $E|H$. We introduce a notion of iterated conditional random quantity of the form $(X|H)|K$ defined as a suitable conditional random quantity, which coincides with $X|HK$ when $H \subseteq K$. Based on a recent paper by S. Kaufmann, we introduce a notion of conjunction of two conditional events and then we analyze it in the setting of cohere…
Compound conditionals, Fr\'echet-Hoeffding bounds, and Frank t-norms
2021
Abstract In this paper we consider compound conditionals, Frechet-Hoeffding bounds and the probabilistic interpretation of Frank t-norms. By studying the solvability of suitable linear systems, we show under logical independence the sharpness of the Frechet-Hoeffding bounds for the prevision of conjunctions and disjunctions of n conditional events. In addition, we illustrate some details in the case of three conditional events. We study the set of all coherent prevision assessments on a family containing n conditional events and their conjunction, by verifying that it is convex. We discuss the case where the prevision of conjunctions is assessed by Lukasiewicz t-norms and we give explicit s…
Generalized probabilistic modus ponens
2017
Modus ponens (from A and “if A then C” infer C) is one of the most basic inference rules. The probabilistic modus ponens allows for managing uncertainty by transmitting assigned uncertainties from the premises to the conclusion (i.e., from P(A) and P(C|A) infer P(C)). In this paper, we generalize the probabilistic modus ponens by replacing A by the conditional event A|H. The resulting inference rule involves iterated conditionals (formalized by conditional random quantities) and propagates previsions from the premises to the conclusion. Interestingly, the propagation rules for the lower and the upper bounds on the conclusion of the generalized probabilistic modus ponens coincide with the re…
Conditional Random Quantities and Iterated Conditioning in the Setting of Coherence
2013
We consider conditional random quantities (c.r.q.’s) in the setting of coherence. Given a numerical r.q. X and a non impossible event H, based on betting scheme we represent the c.r.q. X|H as the unconditional r.q. XH + μH c , where μ is the prevision assessed for X|H. We develop some elements for an algebra of c.r.q.’s, by giving a condition under which two c.r.q.’s X|H and Y|K coincide. We show that X|HK coincides with a suitable c.r.q. Y|K and we apply this representation to Bayesian updating of probabilities, by also deepening some aspects of Bayes’ formula. Then, we introduce a notion of iterated c.r.q. (X|H)|K, by analyzing its relationship with X|HK. Our notion of iterated conditiona…
On approximation of a class of stochastic integrals and interpolation
2004
Given a diffusion Y = (Y_{t})_{t \in [0,T]} we give different equivalent conditions so that a stochastic integral has an L 2-approximation rate of n −η, {\rm \eta \in (0,1/2],} if one approximates by integrals over piece-wise constant integrands where equidistant time nets of cardinality n + 1 are used. In particular, we obtain assertions in terms of smoothness properties of g(Y T ) in the sense of Malliavin calculus. After optimizing over non-equidistant time-nets of cardinality n + 1 in case {\rm \eta > 0} , it turns out that one always obtains a rate of n^{ - 1/2}, which is optimal. This applies to all functions g obtained in an appropriate way by the real interpolation method between th…
Axiomatic characterization of the weighted solidarity values
2014
Abstract We define and characterize the class of all weighted solidarity values . Our first characterization employs the classical axioms determining the solidarity value (except symmetry ), that is, efficiency , additivity and the A-null player axiom , and two new axioms called proportionality and strong individual rationality . In our second axiomatization, the additivity and the A-null player axioms are replaced by a new axiom called average marginality .
QUANTITATIVE CONVERGENCE RATES FOR SUBGEOMETRIC MARKOV CHAINS
2015
We provide explicit expressions for the constants involved in the characterisation of ergodicity of subgeometric Markov chains. The constants are determined in terms of those appearing in the assumed drift and one-step minorisation conditions. The results are fundamental for the study of some algorithms where uniform bounds for these constants are needed for a family of Markov kernels. Our results accommodate also some classes of inhomogeneous chains.