Search results for "Probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Introspection and equilibrium selection in 2 � 2 matrix games
1994
Game theory lacks an explanation of how players' beliefs are formed and why they are in equilibrium. This is the reason why it has failed to make significant advances with the problem of equilibrium selection even for quite siniple games, as 2x2 games with two strict Nash equilibria. Our paper models the introspection process by which the selected equilibrium is achieved in this class of games. Players begin their analysis with imprecise priors, obtained under weak restrictions formulated as Axioms. For a large class of reasoning dynamics we obtain as the solution the risk dominant Nash equilibrium.
An overview of semi-infinite programming theory and related topics through a generalization of the alternative theorems
1984
We propose new alternative theorems for convex infinite systems which constitute the generalization of the corresponding toGale, Farkas, Gordan andMotzkin. By means of these powerful results we establish new approaches to the Theory of Infinite Linear Inequality Systems, Perfect Duality, Semi-infinite Games and Optimality Theory for non-differentiable convex Semi-Infinite Programming Problem.
Pricing of Forwards and Options in a Multivariate Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Model for Energy Markets
2013
In Benth and Vos (2013) we introduced a multivariate spot price model with stochastic volatility for energy markets which captures characteristic features, such as price spikes, mean reversion, stochastic volatility, and inverse leverage effect as well as dependencies between commodities. In this paper we derive the forward price dynamics based on our multivariate spot price model, providing a very flexible structure for the forward curves, including contango, backwardation, and hump shape. Moreover, a Fourier transform-based method to price options on the forward is described.
Long-term stability of phase-separated half-Heusler compounds
2015
Half-Heusler (HH) compounds have shown high figure of merit up to 1.5. Here, we address the long-term stability of n- and p-type HH materials. For this purpose, we investigated HH materials based on the Ti0.3Zr0.35Hf0.35NiSn-system after 500 cycles (1700 h) from 373 to 873 K. Both compounds exhibit a maximum Seebeck coefficient of |α|≈ 210 μV K(-1) and a phase separation into two HH phases. The dendritic microstructure is temperature resistant and upon cycling the changes in the microstructure are so marginal that the low thermal conductivity values (κ4 W m(-1) K(-1)) could be maintained. Our results emphasize that phase-separated HH compounds are suitable low cost materials and can lead to…
Methods for evaluating causality in observational studies.
2019
BACKGROUND: In clinical medical research, causality is demonstrated by randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Often, however, an RCT cannot be conducted for ethical reasons, and sometimes for practical reasons as well. In such cases, knowledge can be derived from an observational study instead. In this article, we present two methods that have not been widely used in medical research to date. METHODS: The methods of assessing causal inferences in observational studies are described on the basis of publications retrieved by a selective literature search. RESULTS: Two relatively new approaches—regression-discontinuity methods and interrupted time series—can be used to demonstrate a causal relat…
Analysis of tide measurements in a Sicilian harbour
2011
Designing of ports and coastal protection works as well as planning of coastal human activities require knowledge of tidal oscillations. The latter vary noticeably from site to site and present an “astronomic” component, which is roughly periodic, and a “meteorological” component which is usually considered as random. In this paper, the tidal oscillations observed in a Sicilian harbour in the period 1999-2009 are analysed statistically, in order to recognize a probability distribution which allows one to predict the highest tidal levels. First, the measurements are used to obtain, for each year, the astronomic tide by the harmonic analysis by the software package T_TIDE. The difference betw…
Critical behavior of a tumor growth model: directed percolation with a mean-field flavor.
2012
We examine the critical behaviour of a lattice model of tumor growth where supplied nutrients are correlated with the distribution of tumor cells. Our results support the previous report (Ferreira et al., Phys. Rev. E 85, 010901 (2012)), which suggested that the critical behaviour of the model differs from the expected Directed Percolation (DP) universality class. Surprisingly, only some of the critical exponents (beta, alpha, nu_perp, and z) take non-DP values while some others (beta', nu_||, and spreading-dynamics exponents Theta, delta, z') remain very close to their DP counterparts. The obtained exponents satisfy the scaling relations beta=alpha*nu_||, beta'=delta*nu_||, and the general…
Biologically inspired information processing and synchronization in ensembles of non-identical threshold-potential nanostructures.
2013
Nanotechnology produces basic structures that show a significant variability in their individual physical properties. This experimental fact may constitute a serious limitation for most applications requiring nominally identical building blocks. On the other hand, biological diversity is found in most natural systems. We show that reliable information processing can be achieved with heterogeneous groups of non-identical nanostructures by using some conceptual schemes characteristic of biological networks (diversity, frequency-based signal processing, rate and rank order coding, and synchronization). To this end, we simulate the integrated response of an ensemble of single-electron transisto…
Time Trends in the Joint Distributions of Income and Age
2001
We propose a method of analyzing time changes of joint income-age densities. Change is decomposed into time invariant components which act on the densities as deformations with time varying strength. The functional form of these components is estimated non parametrically from cross sectional data. The method is applied to analyze British household data on income and age for the years 1968–95. It is learned that for the young and middle aged there is a trend towards increasing inequality, while during the early eighties there seems to occur a reversal in the evolution of the income distribution for the old.
Determining Probability Distribution of Hillslope Peak Discharge by Using an Analytical Solution of Kinematic Wave Time of Concentration.
2016
Hillslope hydrology is fundamental for understanding the flood phenomenon and for evaluating the time of concentration. The latter is a key variable for predicting peak discharge at the basin outlet and for designing urban infrastructure facilities. There have been a multitude of studies on the hydrologic response at the hillslope scale, and the time of concentration has been derived for different approaches. One approach for deriving hillslope response utilizes, in a distributed form, the differential equations of unsteady overland flow, specifically developed at the hydrodynamic scale, in order to account for the spatial heterogeneity of soil characteristics, topography, roughness and veg…