Search results for "Probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Resident and transient dynamics, site fidelity and survival in wintering Blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla: evidence from capture-recapture analyses
2007
In their winter quarters, migrant birds may either remain within a small area (resident strategy) or move frequently over a large area looking for locally abundant food (transient strategy). It has been suggested that both strategies could simultaneously occur in the same population. We used time-since-marking capture‐recapture models to infer the coexistence of these two behavioural strategies (transient and resident) among wintering Blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla using weekly recapture data over a 7-year period. A related question is whether Blackcaps, if surviving to the next winter, always return to the same wintering area, so we also used this approach to analyse winter site fidelity and…
The use of Markovian metapopulation models: Reducing the dimensionality of transition matrices by self-organizing Kohonen networks
2006
Abstract Markovian population models are used in conservation biology to find an accurate estimate of a population's extinction probability. Such models require handling of large transition matrices and calculations are thus extremely time-consuming when large populations have to be studied. To accomplish these problems, some authors have suggested to group together several states/sizes of the population. Unfortunately, this so-called binning frequently results in errors in estimates obtained. The main problem with binning is that it assumes that grouped states behave nearly identical with respect to the underlying stochastic population process and that so far binning methods implicitly vio…
Estimating Polling Accuracy in Multiparty Elections Using Surveybias
2016
Any rigorous discussion of bias in opinion surveys requires a scalar measure of survey accuracy. Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy (2005, Public Opinion Quarterly 69: 342-369) propose such a measure A for the two-party case, and Arzheimer and Evans (2014, Political Analysis 22: 31-44) demonstrate how measures A'i, B, and Bw for the more common multiparty case can be derived. We describe the commands surveybias, surveybiasi, and surveybiasseries, which enable the fast computation of these binomial and multinomial measures of bias in opinion surveys. While the examples are based on pre-election surveys, the methodology applies to any multinomial variable whose true distribution in the population…
A Discrete-Time Hazard Model for Loans: Some Evidence from Italian Banking System
2012
Problem statement: The probability of default, PD, is a crucial probl em for banks. In the last years international accords (Basel, Basel 2 an d Basel 3) have incentived banks to adopt objective s systems to evaluating and monitoring risk of defaul t in order to predict PD for new loans based on borrower's characteristics. The aim of this study i s to introduce a discrete survival model to study t he risk of default and to propose the empirical eviden ce by the Italian banking system. Approach: Survival analysis is used if we are interested in w hether and when an event occurs. In this context th e event occurrence represents a borrower's transition from one state, loan in bonis that is not…
Application of a Bayesian Spatiotemporal Surveillance Method to NYC Syndromic Data
2014
Incorporating prior knowledge (e.g., the spatial distribution of zip codes and background population effects) into a model using Bayesian methods could potentially improve outbreak detection. We adapted a previously described Bayesian model-based spatiotemporal surveillance technique to daily respiratory syndrome counts in NYC Emergency Department data in 2009, the year of the H1N1 influenza pandemic. Citywide, 56 alarms were produced across 15 zip codes, all during days of elevated respiratory visits. Future work includes evaluating our choice of baseline length, considering other alarm thresholds, and conducting a formal evaluation of the method across five syndromes in NYC.
Bayesian reanalysis of a quantitative trait locus accounting for multiple environments by scaling in broilers1
2006
A Bayesian method was developed to handle QTL analyses of multiple experimental data of outbred populations with heterogeneity of variance between sexes for all random effects. The method employed a scaled reduced animal model with random polygenic and QTL allelic effects. A parsimonious model specification was applied by choosing assumptions regarding the covariance structure to limit the number of parameters to estimate. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms were applied to obtain marginal posterior densities. Simulation demonstrated that joint analysis of multiple environments is more powerful than separate single trait analyses of each environment. Measurements on broiler BW obtained from…
<em>Grid</em> poblacional 2011 para España. Evaluación metodológica de diversas posibilidades de elaboración
2017
Este trabajo presenta una evaluación, desde el punto de vista del usuario, de la malla regular (grid) de población, con resolución de 1 km2 , que el Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) ha hecho pública a partir de los resultados del Censo de Población y Viviendas 2011. Esta forma de difusión de resultados resulta muy novedosa y ofrece un gran valor analítico. Por primera vez esta información sobre la distribución espacial de la población se ha generado desde abajo (bottom-up) para el conjunto de España, es decir, a partir del conocimiento de las coordenadas de cada hogar, considerando como tales las del edificio donde reside. La disponibilidad de otra grid con idéntica resolución, elabo…
Steering Distillation Processes through Zeno dynamics
2005
A quantum system in interaction with a repeatedly measured one undergoes a nonunitary time evolution and is pushed into a subspace substantially determined by the two-system coupling. The possibility of suitably modifying such an evolution through quantum Zeno dynamics (i.e., the generalized quantum Zeno effect) addressing the system toward an a priori decided target subspace is illustrated. Applications and their possible realizations in the context of trapped ions are also discussed.
Enhancing Optomechanical Coupling via the Josephson Effect
2013
Cavity optomechanics is showing promise for studying quantum mechanics in large systems. However, smallness of the radiation-pressure coupling is a serious hindrance. Here we show how the charge tuning of the Josephson inductance in a single-Cooper-pair transistor (SCPT) can be exploited to arrange a strong radiation pressure -type coupling $g_0$ between mechanical and microwave resonators. In a certain limit of parameters, such a coupling can also be seen as a qubit-mediated coupling of two resonators. We show that this scheme allows reaching extremely high $g_0$. Contrary to the recent proposals for exploiting the non-linearity of a large radiation pressure coupling, the main non-linearit…
Improved calculations of beta decay backgrounds to new physics in liquid xenon detectors
2020
We present high-precision theoretical predictions for the electron energy spectra for the ground-state to ground-state $\beta$ decays of $^{214}$Pb, $^{212}$Pb, and $^{85}$Kr most relevant to the background of liquid xenon dark matter detectors. The effects of nuclear structure on the spectral shapes are taken into account using large-scale shell model calculations. Final spectra also include atomic screening and exchange effects. The impact of nuclear structure effects on the $^{214}$Pb and $^{212}$Pb spectra below $\approx100$ keV, pertinent for several searches for new physics, are found to be comparatively larger than those from the atomic effects alone. We find that the full calculatio…