Search results for "Random variable"
showing 10 items of 151 documents
Deconvolution filtering for nonlinear stochastic systems with randomly occurring sensor delays via probability-dependent method
2013
This paper deals with a robustH∞deconvolution filtering problem for discrete-time nonlinear stochastic systems with randomly occurring sensor delays. The delayed measurements are assumed to occur in a random way characterized by a random variable sequence following the Bernoulli distribution with time-varying probability. The purpose is to design anH∞deconvolution filter such that, for all the admissible randomly occurring sensor delays, nonlinear disturbances, and external noises, the input signal distorted by the transmission channel could be recovered to a specified extent. By utilizing the constructed Lyapunov functional relying on the time-varying probability parameters, the desired su…
Occlusion-based estimation of independent multinomial random variables using occurrence and sequential information
2017
Abstract This paper deals with the relatively new field of sequence-based estimation in which the goal is to estimate the parameters of a distribution by utilizing both the information in the observations and in their sequence of appearance. Traditionally, the Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Bayesian estimation paradigms work within the model that the data, from which the parameters are to be estimated, is known, and that it is treated as a set rather than as a sequence. The position that we take is that these methods ignore, and thus discard, valuable sequence -based information, and our intention is to obtain ML estimates by “extracting” the information contained in the observations when perc…
Internal Time and Innovation
2003
Consider a physical system that may be observed through time-varying quantities x t , where t stands for time that may be discrete or continuous. The set x t may be a realization of a deterministic system, e.g. a unique solution of a differential equation, or a stochastic process. In the latter case each x t is a random variable. We are interested in the global evolution of the system, not particular realizations x t , from the point of view of innovation. We call the evolution innovative if the dynamics of the system is such that there is a gain of information about the system as time increases. Our purpose is to associate the concept of internal time with such systems. The internal time w…
Causal inference in geosciences with kernel sensitivity maps
2020
Establishing causal relations between random variables from observational data is perhaps the most important challenge in today's Science. In remote sensing and geosciences this is of special relevance to better understand the Earth's system and the complex and elusive interactions between processes. In this paper we explore a framework to derive cause-effect relations from pairs of variables via regression and dependence estimation. We propose to focus on the sensitivity (curvature) of the dependence estimator to account for the asymmetry of the forward and inverse densities of approximation residuals. Results in a large collection of 28 geoscience causal inference problems demonstrate the…
Stationary and non-stationary probability density function for non-linear oscillators
1997
A method for the evaluation of the stationary and non-stationary probability density function of non-linear oscillators subjected to random input is presented. The method requires the approximation of the probability density function of the response in terms of C-type Gram-Charlier series expansion. By applying the weighted residual method, the Fokker-Planck equation is reduced to a system of non-linear first order ordinary differential equations, where the unknowns are the coefficients of the series expansion. Furthermore, the relationships between the A-type and C-type Gram-Charlier series coefficient are derived.
Conditional convex orders and measurable martingale couplings
2014
Strassen's classical martingale coupling theorem states that two real-valued random variables are ordered in the convex (resp.\ increasing convex) stochastic order if and only if they admit a martingale (resp.\ submartingale) coupling. By analyzing topological properties of spaces of probability measures equipped with a Wasserstein metric and applying a measurable selection theorem, we prove a conditional version of this result for real-valued random variables conditioned on a random element taking values in a general measurable space. We also provide an analogue of the conditional martingale coupling theorem in the language of probability kernels and illustrate how this result can be appli…
Properties of the elasticity of a continuous random variable. A special look at its behavior and speed of change
2016
ABSTRACTBelzunce et al. (1995) define the elasticity for non negative random variables as the reversed proportional failure rate (RPFR). Veres-Ferrer and Pavia (2012, 2014b) interpret it in economic terms, extending its definition to variables that can also take negative values, and briefly present the role of elasticity in characterizing probability distributions. This paper highlights a set of properties demonstrated by elasticity, which shows many similar properties to the reverse hazard function. This paper pays particular attention to studying the increase/decrease and the speed of change of the elasticity function. These are important properties because of the characterizing role of e…
Elasticity as a measure for online determination of remission points in ongoing epidemics.
2020
The correct identification of change-points during ongoing outbreak investigations of infectious diseases is a matter of paramount importance in epidemiology, with major implications for the management of health care resources, public health and, as the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, social live. Onsets, peaks, and inflexion points are some of them. An onset is the moment when the epidemic starts. A "peak" indicates a moment at which the incorporated values, both before and after, are lower: a maximum. The inflexion points identify moments in which the rate of growth of the incorporation of new cases changes intensity. In this study, after interpreting the concept of elasticity of a random va…
Moderating effects of subgroups in linear models
1989
SUMMARY Possibilities for moderating effects of a subgrouping variable on strength or direction of an association have been much discussed by social scientists but have not been given satisfactory statistical formulations. The results concern directed measures of associations in linear models containing just three variables. Some key words: Analysis of covariance; Analysis of variance; cG-distribution; Conditional independence; Graphical chain model; Parallel regressions; Yule-Simpson paradox. 1. INTRODUCTION Linear models are commonly used as a framework to estimate and test how a continuous response variable depends on potential influencing variables. This paper is concerned with the situ…
Asymptotic optimality of myopic information-based strategies for Bayesian adaptive estimation
2016
This paper presents a general asymptotic theory of sequential Bayesian estimation giving results for the strongest, almost sure convergence. We show that under certain smoothness conditions on the probability model, the greedy information gain maximization algorithm for adaptive Bayesian estimation is asymptotically optimal in the sense that the determinant of the posterior covariance in a certain neighborhood of the true parameter value is asymptotically minimal. Using this result, we also obtain an asymptotic expression for the posterior entropy based on a novel definition of almost sure convergence on "most trials" (meaning that the convergence holds on a fraction of trials that converge…