Search results for "Risk premium"
showing 10 items of 51 documents
Minimal Dynamic Equilibria
2018
We define dynamic models as multiperiod models with no static representations and demonstrate that current prevalent asset pricing empirical implementations are inconsistent with dynamic equilibria. Specifically, empirical implementations are misspecified with respect to three essential asset pricing questions (TEQ): dependency on higher moments, complexity of risk premia, and mean-variance efficiency of the “market portfolio” (ability to proxy pricing kernels/SDFs). While we already know that “Merton” models, and their derivatives, differ from static models in all TEQ, we show that this is the case even the “minimal” dynamic equilibria.
Pricing and hedging GDP-linked bonds in incomplete markets
2018
Abstract We model the super-replication of payoffs linked to a country’s GDP as a stochastic linear program on a discrete time and state-space scenario tree to price GDP-linked bonds. As a byproduct of the model we obtain a hedging portfolio. Using linear programming duality we compute also the risk premium. The model applies to coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds, and allows the analysis of bonds with different design parameters (coupon, target GDP growth rate, and maturity). We calibrate for UK and US instruments, and carry out sensitivity analysis of prices and risk premia to the risk factors and bond design parameters. We also compare coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds. F…
Pricing and Hedging GDP-Linked Bonds in Incomplete Markets
2017
We model the super-replication of payoffs linked to a country's GDP as a stochastic linear program on a discrete time and state-space scenario tree to price GDP-linked bonds. As a byproduct of the model, we obtain a hedging portfolio. Using linear programming duality we also compute the risk premium. The model applies to coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds, and allows the analysis of bonds with different design parameters (coupon, target GDP growth rate, and maturity). We calibrate for UK and US instruments and carry out a sensitivity analysis of prices and risk premia to the risk factors and bond design parameters. We also compare coupon-indexed and principal-indexed bonds. Results …
An Analysis of the Time-Varying Behavior of the Equilibrium Velocity of Money in the Euro Area
2020
Recent developments in inflation and M3 velocity in the euro area have raised serious doubts about the reliability of M3 growth as a pillar of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. We develop a very flexible and comprehensive state-space framework for modeling the velocity of circulation. Our specification allows for the estimation of different autoregressive alternatives and includes control instruments, whose coefficients can be set up either common or idiosyncratic. This is particularly useful to detect asymmetries in the reaction among countries to common shocks. Our findings first suggest that the downward trend of M3 velocity is mainly explained by the evolution of permanent income, pro…
Long-Run Growth and Volatility: Which Source Really Matters
2010
The aim of the article is to analyse the relationship between long-run growth and business cycle volatility. In particular, the main purpose of this article is to identify which source of volatility is most detrimental to growth. Using cross-country data from 1970 to 2000, and several indicators of volatility (such as inflation, exchange rate, government expenditure, output and investment volatility) this article shows that although, all these measures of volatility are remarkably harmful for growth, business cycle investment volatility is the main source that hampers long-run growth. This relation is robust to different measures of business cycle, and to different sub-samples of countries.
On the Link Between Volatility and Growth
2011
A model of growth with endogenous innovation and distortionary taxes is presented. Since innovation is the only source of volatility, any variable that influences innovation directly affects volatility and growth. This joint endogeneity is illustrated by working out the effects through which economies with different tax levels differ in their volatility and growth process. We obtain analytical measures of macro volatility based on cyclical output and on output growth rates for plausible parametric restrictions. This analysis implies that controls for taxes should be included in the standard growth-volatility regressions. Our estimates show that the conventional Ramey-Ramey coefficient is af…
Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium in the European Monetary Union
2018
This article examines the performance of several variables that could be good predictors of the equity risk premium in the European Monetary Union for a period that spans from 2000 to 2015. In-sample, technical indicators display predictive power, matching or exceeding that of traditional economic forecasting variables. We also find consistent results in the fact that combining information from technical and economic variables improves equity risk premium forecasts, compared to using these variables alone. Nevertheless, out-of-sample exercises do not confirm in-sample results. Economic predictors show stronger out-of-sample forecasting ability than technical indicators, and apart from volum…
Forecasting the Size Premium Over Different Horizons
2011
In this paper, we provide evidence that the small stock premium is predictable both in-sample and out-of-sample through the use of a set of lagged macroeconomic variables. We find that it is possible to forecast the size premium over time horizons that range from one month to one year. We demonstrate that the predictability of the size premium allows a portfolio manager to generate an economically and statistically significant active alpha.
Aggregation of preferences for skewed asset returns
2014
This paper characterizes the equilibrium demand and risk premiums in the presence of skewness risk. We extend the classical mean-variance two-fund separation theorem to a three-fund separation theorem. The additional fund is the skewness portfolio, i.e. a portfolio that gives the optimal hedge of the squared market return; it contributes to the skewness risk premium through co-variation with the squared market return and supports a stochastic discount factor that is quadratic in the market return. When the skewness portfolio does not replicate the squared market return, a tracking error appears; this tracking error contributes to risk premiums through kurtosis and pentosis risk if and only …
Expectations and forward risk premium in the Spanish deregulated power market
2010
Abstract Deregulation in energy markets has entailed important changes in the way agents conduct business. Price risk arises as a result of fluctuations in the future price of electricity and agents assume long or short positions in the forward and spot markets to hedge their exposure to price risk. The presence of forward risk premium in prices is evidence of the fact that agents act in the market according to risk considerations. This work aims to analyse the information content of the difference between the forward and spot prices (the so-called forward premium) regarding the agents’ decisions. We find that the sign and magnitude of the ex post forward premium depend on the unexpected va…