Search results for "Rules"
showing 10 items of 225 documents
Assessing fat-tailed sequential forecast distributions for the Dow-Jones index with logarithmic scoring rules
2007
We use the logarithmic scoring rule for distributions to assess a variety of fat-tailed sequential forecasting distributions for the Dow-Jones industrial stock index from 1980 to the present. The methodology applies Bruno de Finetti''s contributions to understanding how to compare the quality of different coherent forecasting distributions for the same sequence of observations, using proper scoring rules. Four different forms of forecasting distributions are compared: a mixture Normal, a mixture of convex combinations of three Normal distributions, a mixture exponential power distribution, and a mixture of a convex combination of three exponential power distributions. The mixture linear com…
Experimental Evidence for an Attractive p-φ Interaction
2021
Physical review letters 127(17), 172301 (2021). doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.127.172301
Constitutive Rules: The Symbolization Account
2021
Our aim is to provide an account of constitutive rules in terms of (1) the acceptance of regulative norms, and (2) a cognitive process we call “symbolization” (in an altogether different sense from what J. R. Searle means by this word). We claim, first, that institutional facts à la Searle boil down to facts concerning the collective acceptance of regulative norms in a given community. This, however, does not exhaust what institutional facts are. There is a residue, symbolization. Symbolization, as we understand it, involves a transfer of cognitive models from one domain to another. We introduce this notion by exploring different sorts of games, taking our cue from games of pretend play. In…
Heavy quarkonium: progress, puzzles, and opportunities
2011
A golden age for heavy quarkonium physics dawned a decade ago, initiated by the confluence of exciting advances in quantum chromodynamics (QCD) and an explosion of related experimental activity. The early years of this period were chronicled in the Quarkonium Working Group (QWG) CERN Yellow Report (YR) in 2004, which presented a comprehensive review of the status of the field at that time and provided specific recommendations for further progress. However, the broad spectrum of subsequent breakthroughs, surprises, and continuing puzzles could only be partially anticipated. Since the release of the YR, the BESII program concluded only to give birth to BESIII; the $B$-factories and CLEO-c flo…
Odd parity bottom-flavored baryon resonances
2013
The LHCb Collaboration has recently observed two narrow baryon resonances with beauty. Their masses and decay modes look consistent with the quark model orbitally excited states Lambda(b)(5912) and Lambda(b)*(5920), with quantum numbers J(P) = 1/2(-) and 3/2(-), respectively. We predict the existence of these states within a unitarized meson-baryon coupled-channel dynamical model, which implements heavy-quark spin symmetry. Masses, quantum numbers and couplings of these resonances to the different meson-baryon channels are obtained. We find that the resonances Lambda(0)(b)(5912) and Lambda(0)(b)(5920) are heavy-quark spin symmetry partners, which naturally explains their approximate mass de…
L'Analogie chez Aristote
2021
Revue de philosophie dont l’objet est de montrer, d’interroger ou d’évaluer les comparaisons effectives dans les différents champs disciplinaires, Analogia est une publication scientifique annuelle de l’IPC.Chaque numéro réunit un conseil scientifique nouveau chargé de sélectionner les contributions en double aveugle.L’Analogie chez Aristote.Sous la direction d’Emmanuel Brochier.Conseil scientifique :- Katerina Ierodiakonou (Genève – Athènes)- André Laks (Paris)- Benjamin C. Morison (Princeton)- Jean-Luc Solère (Boston)Sommaire :- Présentation, par Emmanuel Brochier, p. 5 ;- Christof Rapp : "Spotting similarities between disparate items" Observations on the use of analogy in Aristotle’s met…
Charm quark mass with calibrated uncertainty
2016
We determine the charm quark mass ${\hat m}_c({\hat m}_c)$ from QCD sum rules of moments of the vector current correlator calculated in perturbative QCD. Only experimental data for the charm resonances below the continuum threshold are needed in our approach, while the continuum contribution is determined by requiring self-consistency between various sum rules, including the one for the zeroth moment. Existing data from the continuum region can then be used to bound the theoretical error. Our result is ${\hat m}_c({\hat m}_c) = 1272 \pm 8$ MeV for $\hat\alpha_s(M_Z) = 0.1182$. Special attention is given to the question how to quantify and justify the uncertainty.
Coherent conditional probabilities and proper scoring rules
2011
In this paper we study the relationship between the notion of coherence for conditional probability assessments on a family of conditional events and the notion of admissibility with respect to scoring rules. By extending a recent result given in literature for unconditional events, we prove, for any given strictly proper scoring rule s, the equivalence between the coherence of a conditional probability assessment and its admissibility with respect to s. In this paper we focus our analysis on the case of continuous bounded scoring rules. In this context a key role is also played by Bregman divergence and by a related theoretical aspect. Finally, we briefly illustrate a possible way of defin…
Modal Consequence Relations Extending S4.3: An Application of Projective Unification
2016
We characterize all finitary consequence relations over $\mathbf{S4.3}$ , both syntactically, by exhibiting so-called (admissible) passive rules that extend the given logic, and semantically, by providing suitable strongly adequate classes of algebras. This is achieved by applying an earlier result stating that a modal logic $L$ extending $\mathbf{S4}$ has projective unification if and only if $L$ contains $\mathbf{S4.3}$ . In particular, we show that these consequence relations enjoy the strong finite model property, and are finitely based. In this way, we extend the known results by Bull and Fine, from logics, to consequence relations. We also show that the lattice of consequence relation…
Early virologic response with pegylated interferons
2004
Abstract Recently, 12-week evaluation of viral response has been recommended as a means of reducing antiviral treatment morbidity and costs. The development of early stopping rules relies on an important assumption: rules must minimise discontinuation of treatment in patients who might ultimately respond after completion of the full course of therapy. Minimising loss of potential responders is the most important clinical goal in defining an early stopping rule because it provides the most sustained virological responders. This definition of the rule relies on maximising the negative predictive value. Conversely, rules that select patients based on optimising the positive predictive value pr…