Search results for "SCENARIO"
showing 10 items of 158 documents
Life-Cycle Assessment Applied to Future Scenarios of Electricity Generation in Sicily
2018
Fighting global warming and increasing the energy security are some of the most relevant objectives of the European energy policy. Thus, defining potential low carbon pathways for the energy sector is of paramount importance in order to identify strategies with the lowest impact on climate. This paper presents an overview of environmental assessment of future electricity scenarios in Sicily (Italy), for 2020 and 2030, characterized by a high exploitation of renewable energy sources. Authors apply the Life Cycle Assessment methodology, according to the standard of the ISO 14040 series, in order to evaluate the environmental impacts of electricity generation in the future scenarios in compari…
An empirical approach for ranking environmental and energy saving measures in the hotel sector
2009
The energy demand of the hotel sector of an Italian region is here utilized for hierarchizing, by means of an empirical method, efficient measures devoted to energy saving and reduction of CO2 emissions. Due to the large number of consumers present in the selected territorial area and the lack in detailed data, the energy demand assessment is here carried out by the analysis of a sample of representative consumers. A short set of indexes, referring to energy and environmental performances, are defined and calculated for different clusters of hotels, grouped on the basis of site characteristics, opening periods, number of beds, and building age. Such indexes are utilized to establish lists o…
Monitoring tropical forests under a functional perspective with satellite-based vegetation optical depth.
2020
Monitoring ecosystem functions in forests is a priority in a climate change scenario, as climate-induced events may initially alter the functions more than slow-changing attributes, such as biomass. The ecosystem functional properties (EFPs) are quantities that characterize key ecosystem processes. They can be derived by point observations of gas and energy exchanges between the ecosystems and the atmosphere that are collected globally at FLUXNET flux tower sites and upscaled at ecosystem level. The properties here considered describe the ability of ecosystems to optimize the use of resources for carbon uptake. They represent functional forest information, are dependent on environmental dri…
Risk profiles for re-profiling sovereign debt
2015
Purpose – This paper aims to use a risk management approach for re-profiling of sovereign debt. It develops profiles that trade off expected cost of financing alternative debt structures against their risk. The risk profiles are particularly informative for countries facing sovereign debt crisis, as they allow us to identify, with high probability, debt unsustainability. Risk profiles for two eurozone countries with excessive debt, Cyprus and Italy, were developed. In addition, risk profiles were developed for a proposal to impose debt sanctions in the Ukrainian crisis and it was shown that the financial impact could be substantial. Design/methodology/approach – Using scenario analysis, a r…
A plant-wide wastewater treatment plant model for carbon and energy footprint: Model application and scenario analysis
2019
Abstract A new model for accounting carbon and energy footprint of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is proposed. The model quantifies direct and indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to biological and physical processes of a WWTP. The model takes into account several innovative aspects with respect to already available literature models: i. kinetic/mass-balances; ii. nitrification as a two-step process; iii. nitrous oxide (N2O) formation during nitrification and denitrification both in dissolved and off-gas forms. A full-scale application has been performed by adopting the case study of a real WWTP. A scenario analysis was performed to quantify the influence of: composition of …
Cuerpos moldeables y vidas modulables: La invención del estado holísticamente saludable como bienestar (integral)
2020
The article argues ?from the Deleuzian concepts of society of control, moulding and modulation and the Rosean theory on the economization and medicalization of life? that the expansion of the concept of health in terms of integral and subjective well-being is the effect of a socio-historical shift in the way we relate to this signifier, and therefore to our bodies and ourselves. We use this interpretative network to analyze the effects that the biopsychosocial health paradigm has had in the context of aesthetic surgery and fitness practice. As a result, we see that the expansion of the concept of health has extended the domain of medicine into the spheres of personal care and physical appea…
Risk management optimization for sovereign debt restructuring
2015
Debt restructuring is one of the policy tools available for resolving sovereign debt crises and, while unorthodox, it is not uncommon. We propose a scenario analysis for debt sustainability and integrate it with scenario optimization for risk management in restructuring sovereign debt. The scenario dynamics of debt-to-GDP ratio are used to define a tail risk measure, termed "conditional Debt-at-Risk". A multi-period stochastic programming model minimizes the expected cost of debt financing subject to risk limits. It provides an operational model to handle significant aspects of debt restructuring: it collects all debt issues in a common framework, and can include contingent claims, multiple…
Lévy processes in bounded domains: path-wise reflection scenarios and signatures of confinement
2022
We discuss an impact of various (path-wise) reflection-from-the barrier scenarios upon confining properties of a paradigmatic family of symmetric $\alpha $-stable L\'{e}vy processes, whose permanent residence in a finite interval on a line is secured by a two-sided reflection. Depending on the specific reflection "mechanism", the inferred jump-type processes differ in their spectral and statistical characteristics, like e.g. relaxation properties, and functional shapes of invariant (equilibrium, or asymptotic near-equilibrium) probability density functions in the interval. The analysis is carried out in conjunction with attempts to give meaning to the notion of a reflecting L\'{e}vy process…
'Participative foresight scenario mapping': adapting an MCM method to appraise foresight scenarios for the long term sustainable development of a sma…
2016
Multi-criteria mapping (MCM) appraisal has been used in projects involving decisions related to specific technologies or policies in risk analysis. In this research, MCM has been adapted for appraising in a participative way holistic scenarios for a small isolated island. The procedural novelty relies on how the scenario building and the criteria selection were undertaken. Two scenarios for Flores Island (Portugal) were developed in a two step process involving, firstly, specialised stakeholders and decision-makers, and secondly, lay citizens. The scenarios aimed at proposing alternative visions of future. This article analyses the methodological aspects of the project (scenario development…
Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models
2021
AbstractBackgroundTemperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought.MethodsHere, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth…