Search results for "STATISTICS & PROBABILITY"
showing 10 items of 436 documents
Weighted norm inequalities in a bounded domain by the sparse domination method
2019
AbstractWe prove a local two-weight Poincaré inequality for cubes using the sparse domination method that has been influential in harmonic analysis. The proof involves a localized version of the Fefferman–Stein inequality for the sharp maximal function. By establishing a local-to-global result in a bounded domain satisfying a Boman chain condition, we show a two-weight p-Poincaré inequality in such domains. As an application we show that certain nonnegative supersolutions of the p-Laplace equation and distance weights are p-admissible in a bounded domain, in the sense that they support versions of the p-Poincaré inequality.
Air conditioning and heat-related mortality: a multi-country longitudinal study
2020
Background: Air conditioning has been proposed as one of the key factors explaining reductions of heat-related mortality risks observed in the last decades. However, direct evidence is still limited. Methods: We used a multi-country, multi-city, longitudinal design to quantify the independent role of air conditioning in reported attenuation in risk. We collected daily time series of mortality, mean temperature, and yearly air conditioning prevalence for 311 locations in Canada, Japan, Spain, and the USA between 1972 and 2009. For each city and sub-period, we fitted a quasi-Poisson regression combined with distributed lag non-linear models to estimate summer-only temperature–mortality associ…
Does Tourism Consumption Behaviour Mirror Differences in Living Standards?
2016
Based on the theoretical foundation of well-being measurement, the study explores differences in living standards by analysing the distribution of tourism expenditure. A mixture of regression models is used to explore the heterogeneity in tourism consumption by identifying groups of families with similar tourism consumption behaviour as a function of certain socio-demographic and economic factors. The empirical analysis, performed on Italian expenditure data, suggests that there are three different patterns of consumption behaviour conditional to the socio-demographic and economic covariates in the tourism market and that differences in tourism consumption between groups of households mirro…
Resisting the extortion racket: an empirical analysis
2018
While the contributions on the organized crime and Mafia environments are many, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the firm’s decision to resist to extortion. Our case study is based on Addiopizzo, an NGO that, from 2004, invites firms to refuse requests from the local Mafia and to join a public list of “non-payers”. The research is based on a dataset obtained linking the current administrative archives maintained by the chambers of commerce and the list updated by the NGO. The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to gather sound data on the characteristics of the Addiopizzo joiners; second to model the probability to join Addiopizzo by a two-level logistic regression model. We …
The dynamic interdependence in the demand of primary and emergency secondary care: A hidden Markov approach
2021
This paper develops an extension of the class of finite mixture models for longitudinal count data to the bivariate case by using a trivariate reduction technique and a hidden Markov chain approach. The model allows for disentangling unobservable time-varying heterogeneity from the dynamic effect of utilisation of primary and secondary care and measuring their potential substitution effect. Three points of supports adequately describe the distribution of the latent states suggesting the existence of three profiles of low, medium and high users who shows persistency in their behaviour, but not permanence as some switch to their neighbour's profile.
The welfare cost of unpriced heterogeneity in insurance markets
2016
We consider the welfare loss of unpriced heterogeneity in insurance markets, which results when private information or regulatory constraints prevent insurance companies to set premiums reflecting expected costs. We propose a methodology which uses survey data to measure this welfare loss. After identifying some “types” which determine expected risk and insurance demand, we derive the key factors defining the demand and cost functions in each market induced by these unobservable types. These are used to quantify the efficiency costs of unpriced heterogeneity. We apply our methods to the US Long-Term Care and Medigap insurance markets, where we find that unpriced heterogeneity causes substan…
WEIGHTED-AVERAGE LEAST SQUARES (WALS): A SURVEY
2014
Model averaging has become a popular method of estimation, following increasing evidence that model selection and estimation should be treated as one joint procedure. Weighted- average least squares (WALS) is a recent model-average approach, which takes an intermediate position between frequentist and Bayesian methods, allows a credible treatment of ignorance, and is extremely fast to compute. We review the theory of WALS and discuss extensions and applications.
Testing for Asymmetric Information in Insurance Markets: A Multivariate Ordered Regression Approach
2016
The positive correlation (PC) test is the standard procedure used in the empirical literature to detect the existence of asymmetric information in insurance markets. This article describes a new tool to implement an extension of the PC test based on a new family of regression models, the multivariate ordered logit, designed to study how the joint distribution of two or more ordered response variables depends on exogenous covariates. We present an application of our proposed extension of the PC test to the Medigap health insurance market in the United States. Results reveal that the risk–coverage association is not homogeneous across coverage and risk categories, and depends on individual so…
Integrating retirement and permanent disability in NDC pension schemes
2015
ABSTRACTIn this article, we develop a theoretical basis for integrating retirement and permanent disability using a generic nonfinancial defined contribution framework. The methodology we use relies on a multistate overlapping generations model that includes the so-called survivor dividend. Currently, this feature can only be found in the Swedish defined contribution (DC) scheme. The results achieved in the numerical example we present endorse the fact that the model works well. Special attention is given to the assumptions made about mortality rates for disabled people and disability incidence rates, which largely determine the contribution rate assigned to disability. The model could be o…
Banking failure prediction: a boosting classification tree approach
2016
The recent financial crisis shows that failure of some financial institutions can cause other banks to fail and ultimately cause damage to the financial system worldwide. Eurozone banks that experienced either liquidity or solvency problems during the finan- cial markets turmoil were bailed out by their national governments with the financial support and supervision of the European Union. This paper applies the boosted classification tree methodology to predict failure in the banking sector and identifies four key scor- ecard variables that are worth tracking closely in order to anticipate and prevent bank financial distress. The data used in this study comprises 2006-2012 annual series of …