Search results for "STATISTICS"
showing 10 items of 7671 documents
SAL—A Novel Quality Measure for the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
2008
Abstract A novel object-based quality measure, which contains three distinct components that consider aspects of the structure (S), amplitude (A), and location (L) of the precipitation field in a prespecified domain (e.g., a river catchment) is introduced for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). This quality measure is referred to as SAL. The amplitude component A measures the relative deviation of the domain-averaged QPF from observations. Positive values of A indicate an overestimation of total precipitation; negative values indicate an underestimation. For the components S and L, coherent precipitation objects are separately identified in the forecast and obser…
Operational forecasting of daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region
2013
Extreme-temperature events have a great impact on human society. Thus, knowledge of summer temperatures can be very useful both for the general public and for organizations whose workers operate in the open. An accurate forecasting of summer maximum and minimum temperatures could help to predict heatwave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The objective of this work is to evaluate the skill of the regional atmospheric and modelling system (RAMS) model in determining daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of…
Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts
2017
The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order …
REGEOTOP: New climatic data fields for East Asia based on localized relief information and geostatistical methods
2004
Climate data fields represent essential tools for climate, biogeographical and agricultural research to run models and to provide observational data for the verification of global climate models (GCM). Climate data fields are generated through interpolation of observations taken at meteorological stations. Most current interpolation procedures try to describe the influence of topography on spatial climatic variations by relating them directly to absolute elevation or by introducing simple relief variables such as exposure. In both cases this may not properly describe spatial climatic variations, particularly not those of precipitation. This paper describes a regionalization procedure (REGEO…
Estimation of sub-hourly DDF curves using scaling properties of hourly and sub-hourly data at partially gauged site
2005
Abstract In urban drainage systems, knowledge of short-duration rainfall events can be considered as one of the most critical elements when their hydrological behaviour wants to be investigated. The temporal resolution of rainfall data usually available for practical applications is often lower than the data requested for the design procedures or mathematical models application, greatly affecting their reliability. Moreover, when high resolution rain gauges are available in the catchment, the registration period cannot be sufficiently long for obtaining practically usable statistical analyses. The present study proposes a method for estimating the distribution of sub-hourly extreme rainfall…
Comparison of Different Techniques for the Measurement of Precipitation in Tropical Montane Rain Forest Regions
2007
Abstract Characteristics of different precipitation measurements in a tropical mountain valley in southern Ecuador are compared in this study to determine potential errors. The instruments are used for different ecological purposes like erosion studies, through fall measurements, investigation of atmospheric chemistry, and modeling of area rainfall distribution. Five recording devices (two precipitation radars, an electro-optical present weather sensor, and two tipping buckets) and three totaling gauges were operated in parallel at a designated site. Data were taken between 1998 and 2003 with different temporal resolution and different operational periods. The general agreement between the …
Real-time weather forecasting in the Western Mediterranean Basin: An application of the RAMS model
2014
Abstract A regional forecasting system based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is being run at the CEAM Foundation. The model is started twice daily with a forecast range of 72 h. For the period June 2007 to August 2010 the verification of the model has been done using a series of automatic meteorological stations from the CEAM network and located within the Valencia Region (Western Mediterranean Basin). Air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and direction of the output of the model have been compared with observations. For these variables, an operational verification has been performed by computing different statistical scores for 18 weather stations. This verif…
A typology for intraseasonal oscillations
2013
This descriptive study attempts to document the diversity of intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) propagative and spatial patterns, as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) variability. Main ISO events over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool are first extracted using a local mode analysis (LMA) applied on the 20–120-d filtered OLR on the 1979–2008 period. One hundred and sixty-nine individual ISO are detected. Their propagative patterns are then objectively regrouped into a few types using a hierarchical agglomerative classification. Three alternative partitionings are retained, depending on the level of details expected from the typology. ISO events first regroup naturally into two well-sepa…
An Analysis of Regional and Intra-annual Precipitation Variability over Iran using Multivariate Statistical Methods
1998
The temporal and spatial precipitation regime of Iran was analysed using multivariate analyses of monthly mean precipitation records for 71 stations. A Principal Component Analysis was applied to the correlation matrix in order to describe the intra-annual variations of precipitation. The Principal Component scores were mapped to visualize the spatial structure of the three derived precipitation regimes. By applying an agglomerative clustering (WARD) of the three Principal Component scores, five homogeneous spatial clusters, representing five precipitation regions, were developed. The intra-annual types of precipitation distribution, shown by the five clusters, are described and discussed.
Efficient Kernel Cook's Distance for Remote Sensing Anomalous Change Detection
2021
Detecting anomalous changes in remote sensing images is a challenging problem, where many approaches and techniques have been presented so far. We rely on the standard field of multivariate statistics of diagnostic measures, which are concerned about the characterization of distributions, detection of anomalies, extreme events, and changes. One useful tool to detect multivariate anomalies is the celebrated Cook's distance. Instead of assuming a linear relationship, we present a novel kernelized version of the Cook's distance to address anomalous change detection in remote sensing images. Due to the large computational burden involved in the direct kernelization, and the lack of out-…