Search results for "Sensitivity analysi"
showing 10 items of 110 documents
Assessment of data and parameter uncertainties in integrated water-quality model
2011
In integrated urban drainage water quality models, due to the fact that integrated approaches are basically a cascade of sub-models (simulating sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving water body), uncertainty produced in one sub-model propagates to the following ones depending on the model structure, the estimation of parameters and the availability and uncertainty of measurements in the different parts of the system. Uncertainty basically propagates throughout a chain of models in which simulation output from upstream models is transferred to the downstream ones as input. The overall uncertainty can differ from the simple sum of uncertainties generated in each sub-model, dep…
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an integrated membrane bioreactor model
2015
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, although can be of primarily importance in mathematical modelling approaches, are scarcely applied in the field of membrane bioreactor (MBR). An integrated mathematical model for MBR is applied with the final aim to pin down sources of uncertainty in MBR modelling. The uncertainty analysis has been performed combining global sensitivity analysis (GSA) with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The model and methodology were applied to a University Cape Town pilot plant. Results show that the complexity of the modelled processes and the propagation effect from the influent to the effluent increase the uncertainty of the model predicti…
Application of the Morris method for screening the influential parameters of fuzzy controllers applied to wastewater treatment plants
2011
In this paper,we evaluate the application of a sensitivity analysis to help fine-tuning a fuzzy controller for a biological nitrogen and phosphorus removal (BNPR) plant. TheMorris Screeningmethod is proposed and evaluated as a prior step to obtain the parameter significance ranking. First, an iterative procedure has been performed in order to find out the proper repetition number of the elementary effects (r) of the method. The optimal repetition number found in this study (r = 60) is in direct contrast to previous applications of the Morris method, which usually use low repetition number, e.g. r = 10 ~ 20. Working with a non-proper repetition number (r) could lead to Type I error (identify…
A comprehensive tool for efficient design and operation of polygeneration-based energy μgrids serving a cluster of buildings. Part II: Analysis of th…
2013
Abstract The potential of polygeneration systems, in terms of profitability, energy saving and pollutant emissions reduction, highly depends on several factors such as plant efficiency, local normative and tariff conditions and reference technologies adopted to compare the results. In Part I of this paper a reliable tool was described, capable of optimizing the lay-out, design and operation of an integrated polygeneration system serving a cluster of buildings with their heat, cooling and power demand; the tool represents an excellent instrument to perform sensitivity analyses, thus enabling the analyst to formulate general design criteria and predict the effects of any change in the boundar…
Life cycle assessment of a solar thermal collector: sensitivity analysis, energy and environmental balances
2005
Abstract Starting from the results of a life cycle assessment of solar thermal collector for sanitary warm water, an energy balance between the employed energy during the collector life cycle and the energy saved thanks to the collector use has been investigated. A sensitivity analysis for estimating the effects of the chosen methods and data on the outcome of the study was carried out. Uncertainties due to the eco-profile of input materials and the initial assumptions have been analysed. Since the study is concerned with a renewable energy system, attention has been focused on the energy indexes and in particular the “global energy consumption”. Following the principles of Kyoto Protocol, …
Sensitivity analysis to quantify uncertainty in Life Cycle Assessment: The case study of an Italian tile
2011
Abstract The results of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study can be affected by several uncertainty sources, mainly due to the methodological choices, the initial assumptions, i.e. allocation rules, system boundaries and impact assessment methods, and the quality of the available data. Then, the experts should estimate the extent of the above-mentioned sources of uncertainty for improving the reliability and the representativeness of the obtained eco-profiles. To estimate the uncertainty is necessary to obtain reliable, transparent and representative LCA results and to correctly support decision-makers in the selection of different product or process options. The following paper starts from …
Post Feed-in Scheme Photovoltaic System Feasibility Evaluation in Italy: Sicilian Case Studies
2014
: Thanks to national energy policies, over recent years the Italian photovoltaic (PV) sector has undergone an extraordinary growth, also affecting the primary sector. In this context, Mediterranean greenhouses are well-adapted to photovoltaic systems because they represent one of the most energy-intensive sectors in agriculture. The Italian feed-in scheme ended at the beginning of 2013, making it necessary to investigate the feasibility of photovoltaic systems devoid of any electricity production-related incentives. In this paper, production cost and profitability analyses of photovoltaic electricity have been conducted, considering Mediterranean solar greenhouses in which, thanks to net me…
In sewer processes: mathematical model development and sensitivity analysis.
2009
Until now the majority of sewer networks in Italy have been built and managed considering small as well as local wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). However, pushed by Italian and EU regulations, centralised and large WWTPs are becoming more common in Italy. One major technical aspect caused by the changing from local to centralised WWTPs is the development of significant in-sewer processes. These processes are also emphasized by the building of long interceptor sewers characterized by high hydraulic retention times and absence of tributary sewers. In this paper a model derived from the well known WATS model (Wastewater Aerobic/anaerobic Transformation in Sewers) has been set up and applie…
A parsimonious dynamic model for river water quality assessment
2010
Water quality modelling is of crucial importance for the assessment of physical, chemical, and biological changes in water bodies. Mathematical approaches to water modelling have become more prevalent over recent years. Different model types ranging from detailed physical models to simplified conceptual models are available. Actually, a possible middle ground between detailed and simplified models may be parsimonious models that represent the simplest approach that fits the application. The appropriate modelling approach depends on the research goal as well as on data available for correct model application. When there is inadequate data, it is mandatory to focus on a simple river water qua…
Epistemic uncertainty in fault tree analysis approached by the evidence theory
2012
Abstract Process plants may be subjected to dangerous events. Different methodologies are nowadays employed to identify failure events, that can lead to severe accidents, and to assess the relative probability of occurrence. As for rare events reliability data are generally poor, leading to a partial or incomplete knowledge of the process, the classical probabilistic approach can not be successfully used. Such an uncertainty, called epistemic uncertainty, can be treated by means of different methodologies, alternative to the probabilistic one. In this work, the Evidence Theory or Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) is proposed to deal with this kind of uncertainty. In particular, the classical Fau…