Search results for "Statistica"
showing 10 items of 5969 documents
Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts
2017
The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order …
Estimation of sub-hourly DDF curves using scaling properties of hourly and sub-hourly data at partially gauged site
2005
Abstract In urban drainage systems, knowledge of short-duration rainfall events can be considered as one of the most critical elements when their hydrological behaviour wants to be investigated. The temporal resolution of rainfall data usually available for practical applications is often lower than the data requested for the design procedures or mathematical models application, greatly affecting their reliability. Moreover, when high resolution rain gauges are available in the catchment, the registration period cannot be sufficiently long for obtaining practically usable statistical analyses. The present study proposes a method for estimating the distribution of sub-hourly extreme rainfall…
Relationship between the effective cloud optical depth and different atmospheric transmission factors
2015
This study examines the sensitivity of cloud optical depth (COD) for overcast conditions to radiation transmission using data collected in Valencia, Spain. These relationships are provided as simple empirical functions, therefore avoiding the need to apply complex model minimisation schemes to obtain COD. Comparisons are presented between COD obtained by a minimization method and several radiation transmission factors comprising a clearness index (kt), a modified version (kt'), a cloud modification factor (CMF) and its modified version (CMF'). Additionally, a statistical model of COD proposed by J.C. Barnard and C.N. Long (2004) is tested with our data. Statistical relationships between COD…
Examining the effect of adverse weather on road transportation using weather and traffic sensors.
2018
Adverse weather related to reduced visibility caused by fog and rain can seriously affect the mobility and safety of drivers. It is meaningful to develop effective intelligent transportation system (ITS) strategies to mitigate the negative effects of these different types of adverse weather related to reduced visibility by investigating the effect of rain and fog on traffic parameters. A number of previous researches focused on analyzing the effect of adverse weather related to reduced visibility by using simulated traffic and weather data. There are few researchers that addressed the impact of adverse weather instances using real-time data. Moreover, this paper conducts comprehensive inves…
Two-days ahead prediction of daily maximum concentrations of SO2, O3, PM10, NO2, CO in the urban area of Palermo, Italy
2007
Abstract Artificial neural networks are functional alternative techniques in modelling the intricate vehicular exhaust emission dispersion phenomenon. Pollutant predictions are notoriously complex when using either deterministic or stochastic models, which explains why this model was developed using a neural network. Neural networks have the ability to learn about non-linear relationships between the used variables. In this paper a recurrent neural network (Elman model) based forecaster for the prediction of daily maximum concentrations of SO2, O3, PM10, NO2, CO in the city of Palermo is proposed. The effectiveness of the presented forecaster was tested using a time series recorded between …
Sea Surface Temperature Fields Associated with West African Rainfall Anomaly Types
1996
Abstract Four West African rainfall anomaly types are defined in relation to the northern summer rainfall departure signs in the Sahel and in the Guinean region in order to investigate the statistical links between interannual variability of West African rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) through the period 1950–90. Composite analysis depicts the setup of four different mean SST anomaly fields. Drought over all of West Africa is associated with the growth of positive SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific and in the Indian Ocean, and negative SST anomalies in the northern Atlantic and in the Gulf of Guinea. In contrast, drought limited to the Sahel corresponds mostly to a northward ex…
Predicting dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana using climate indicators
2016
Background Dengue fever epidemic dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses. Associations between climate and dengue have been studied around the world, but the results have shown that the impact of the climate can vary widely from one study site to another. In French Guiana, climate-based models are not available to assist in developing an early warning system. This study aims to evaluate the potential of using oceanic and atmospheric conditions to help predict dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana. Methodology/Principal Findings Lagged correlations and composite analyses were performed to identify the climatic conditions that characterized a typical e…
Long-term persistence, invariant time scales and on-off intermittency of fog events
2021
Abstract In this work we study different characteristics of fog long-term persistence, in events with different physical formation mechanisms. Specifically, we focus on the characterization of fog long-term persistence from observational data, by means of a Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) of its associated low-visibility time series. We analyze fog events with radiation and orographic underlying physical formation mechanisms, and identify a two-range pattern of long-term persistence. Our analysis leads to the emergence of a characteristic time, τ∗, at the crossover point between different scaling exponents in the DFA, independent of the time scale at which the fog event is studied. We …
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe
2015
Abstract. This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more…
An evaluation of the estimation of road traffic emission factors from tracer studies
2010
Road traffic emission factors (EFs) are one of the main sources of uncertainties in emission inventories; it is necessary to develop methods to reduce these uncertainties to manage air quality more efficiently. Recently an alternative method has been proposed to estimate the EFs. In that work the emission factors were estimated from a long term tracer study developed in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) Vietnam. A passive tracer was continuously emitted from a finite line source placed in one side of an urban street canyon. Simultaneously, the resulting tracer concentrations were monitored at the other side of the street. The results of this experiment were used to calculate the dispersion factors an…