Search results for "Statistical Model"
showing 10 items of 163 documents
Variable selection in the analysis of energy consumption-growth nexus
2015
There is abundant empirical literature that focuses on whether energy consumption is a critical driver of economic growth. The evolution of this literature has largely consisted of attempts to solve the problems and answer the criticisms arising from earlier studies. One of the most common criticisms is that previous work concentrates on the bivariate relationship, energy consumption–economic growth. Many authors try to overcome this critique using control variables. However, the choice of these variables has been ad hoc, made according to the subjective economic rationale of the authors. Our contribution to this literature is to apply a robust probabilistic model to select the explanatory …
Estimating Engel curves under unit and item nonresponse
2010
SUMMARY This paper estimates food Engel curves using data from the first wave of the Survey on Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Our statistical model simultaneously takes into account selectivity due to unit and item nonresponse, endogeneity problems, and issues related to flexible specification of the relationship of interest. We estimate both parametric and semiparametric specifications of the model. The parametric specification assumes that the unobservables in the model follow a multivariate Gaussian distribution, while the semiparametric specification avoids distributional assumptions about the unobservables. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Automatic research of the capitalization rate for the residential automated valuation: an experimental study in Cosenza (Italy).
2017
When a market oriented approach is not applicable because of the lack of comparable sales data (Ciuna et al. 2014a), International Valuation Standards suggest the use of the Income Approach, which has the task of simulating the market through an economic and financial scheme. The central question of this approach is due to the quantification of the capitalization rate, whereas it is generally extracted in a market segment different from that of the subject. This paper intends to propose an automated valuation model of the capitalization rate based on a real estate database built through a computerized geocoding automatic procedure, starting from the application of statistical models of mult…
Modeling traffic safety at urban four leg-signalized intersections
2013
According to the state-of-the-art of the methodologies, the development of safety performance functions (SPFs) for road sections and intersections requires the employment of statistical models to predict expected crash frequencies on the basis of traffic volumes and site characteristics to be surveyed and used as input to models. Nevertheless, literature reports several studies on issues deriving from data features or methodological approaches that may invalidate the efficiency of the models and the accuracy of the estimates. Drawing inspiration from the above mentioned considerations, the objective of this study is to develop safety performance functions for a sample of urban four leg-sign…
You cannot speak and listen at the same time: a probabilistic model of turn-taking.
2017
Turn-taking is a preverbal skill whose mastering constitutes an important precondition for many social interactions and joint actions. However, the cognitive mechanisms supporting turn-taking abilities are still poorly understood. Here, we propose a computational analysis of turn-taking in terms of two general mechanisms supporting joint actions: action prediction (e.g., recognizing the interlocutor's message and predicting the end of turn) and signaling (e.g., modifying one's own speech to make it more predictable and discriminable). We test the hypothesis that in a simulated conversational scenario dyads using these two mechanisms can recognize the utterances of their co-actors faster, wh…
Contribution to the platoon distribution analysis in steady-state traffic conditions
2014
The traffic flow analysis and the relevant vehicle distribution (“free-moving” or “platooned” vehicles) on highway facilities at uninterrupted flow has always had fundamental importance in Highway Engineering, with special reference to topics like traffic operations, car accidents, road safety and air pollution emissions. In light of this, the study suggests a calculation algorithm as a random test generator to simulate a steady state traffic flow and to provide time headways. Thanks to the outcome produced by numerical simulations, we analysed platoon distributions within traffic flows in a steady-state regime and showed the results of numerical analyses carried out by traffic random proce…
Handling Underdispersion in Calibrating Safety Performance Function at Urban, Four-Leg, Signalized Intersections
2011
Poisson basic assumption of equidispersion is often too much restrictive for crash count data; in fact this type of data has been found to often exhibit overdispersion. Underdispersion has been less commonly observed, and this is the reason why it has been less convenient to model directly than overdispersion. Overdispersion and underdispersion are not the only issues that can be a potential source of error in specifying statistical models and that can lead to biased crash-frequency predictions; these issues can derive from data properties (temporal and spatial correlation, time-varying explanatory variables, etc.) or from methodological approach (omitted variables, functional form selectio…
An automatic quality system for injection molding
2007
This paper describes a fully automatic quality system for injection molding. The proposed system includes an on-line measurement platform with a digital camera, a methodology for adaptive design of experiments (DOE), statistical modeling, process monitoring, and a closed loop process control. The system has been tested in the manufacturing of plastic parts for mobile phones.
How to formulate an accident prediction model for urban intersections.
2009
Several safety prediction models and methods have been developed to eliminate the relationship between the expected accident frequency and various urban intersection geometry and operational attributes. It is generally accepted that accident rates tend to be higher at intersections than on through sections of a road. This is particularly frequent in urban area where roads are characterized by intersections in close succession; moreover, the safe and effective operations of the urban road system can be significantly affected by safety conditions at intersections. In this paper models and methods designed to understand and to predict the accident process at urban intersections are reviewed. I…
CorCast: A Distributed Architecture for Bayesian Epidemic Nowcasting and its Application to District-Level SARS-CoV-2 Infection Numbers in Germany
2021
Timely information on current infection numbers during an epidemic is of crucial importance for decision makers in politics, medicine, and businesses. As information about local infection risk can guide public policy as well as individual behavior, such as the wearing of personal protective equipment or voluntary social distancing, statistical models providing such insights should be transparent and reproducible as well as accurate. Fulfilling these requirements is drastically complicated by the large amounts of data generated during exponential growth of infection numbers, and by the complexity of common inference pipelines. Here, we present CorCast – a stable and scalable distributed arch…