Search results for "Statistics & Probability"
showing 10 items of 436 documents
An association model for bivariate data with application to the anlysis of university students' success.
2015
The academic success of students is a priority for all universities. We analyze the students' success at university by considering their performance in terms of both ‘qualitative performance’, measured by their mean grade, and ‘quantitative performance’, measured by university credits accumulated. These data come from an Italian University and concern a cohort of students enrolled at the Faculty of Economics. To jointly model both the marginal relationships and the association structure with covariates, we fit a bivariate ordered logistic model by penalized maximum likelihood estimation. The penalty term we use allows us to smooth the association structure and enlarge the range of possible …
Second‐order analysis of marked inhomogeneous spatiotemporal point processes: Applications to earthquake data
2018
To analyse interactions in marked spatio-temporal point processes (MSTPPs), we introduce marked second-order reduced moment measures and K-functions for inhomogeneous second-order intensity reweigh ...
What Does Objective Mean in a Dirichlet-multinomial Process?
2017
Summary The Dirichlet-multinomial process can be seen as the generalisation of the binomial model with beta prior distribution when the number of categories is larger than two. In such a scenario, setting informative prior distributions when the number of categories is great becomes difficult, so the need for an objective approach arises. However, what does objective mean in the Dirichlet-multinomial process? To deal with this question, we study the sensitivity of the posterior distribution to the choice of an objective Dirichlet prior from those presented in the available literature. We illustrate the impact of the selection of the prior distribution in several scenarios and discuss the mo…
A penalized approach to covariate selection through quantile regression coefficient models
2019
The coefficients of a quantile regression model are one-to-one functions of the order of the quantile. In standard quantile regression (QR), different quantiles are estimated one at a time. Another possibility is to model the coefficient functions parametrically, an approach that is referred to as quantile regression coefficients modeling (QRCM). Compared with standard QR, the QRCM approach facilitates estimation, inference and interpretation of the results, and generates more efficient estimators. We designed a penalized method that can address the selection of covariates in this particular modelling framework. Unlike standard penalized quantile regression estimators, in which model selec…
Cross-Commodity Spot Price Modeling with Stochastic Volatility and Leverage For Energy Markets
2013
Spot prices in energy markets exhibit special features, such as price spikes, mean reversion, stochastic volatility, inverse leverage effect, and dependencies between the commodities. In this paper a multivariate stochastic volatility model is introduced which captures these features. The second-order structure and stationarity of the model are analyzed in detail. A simulation method for Monte Carlo generation of price paths is introduced and a numerical example is presented.
Elasticity as a measure for online determination of remission points in ongoing epidemics.
2020
The correct identification of change-points during ongoing outbreak investigations of infectious diseases is a matter of paramount importance in epidemiology, with major implications for the management of health care resources, public health and, as the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, social live. Onsets, peaks, and inflexion points are some of them. An onset is the moment when the epidemic starts. A "peak" indicates a moment at which the incorporated values, both before and after, are lower: a maximum. The inflexion points identify moments in which the rate of growth of the incorporation of new cases changes intensity. In this study, after interpreting the concept of elasticity of a random va…
One-dimensional random walks with self-blocking immigration
2017
We consider a system of independent one-dimensional random walkers where new particles are added at the origin at fixed rate whenever there is no older particle present at the origin. A Poisson ansatz leads to a semi-linear lattice heat equation and predicts that starting from the empty configuration the total number of particles grows as $c \sqrt{t} \log t$. We confirm this prediction and also describe the asymptotic macroscopic profile of the particle configuration.
Random walks in dynamic random environments and ancestry under local population regulation
2015
We consider random walks in dynamic random environments, with an environment generated by the time-reversal of a Markov process from the oriented percolation universality class. If the influence of the random medium on the walk is small in space-time regions where the medium is typical, we obtain a law of large numbers and an averaged central limit theorem for the walk via a regeneration construction under suitable coarse-graining. Such random walks occur naturally as spatial embeddings of ancestral lineages in spatial population models with local regulation. We verify that our assumptions hold for logistic branching random walks when the population density is sufficiently high.
Estimating person parameters via item response model and simple sum score in small samples with few polytomous items: A simulation study
2018
Background The Item Response Theory (IRT) is becoming increasingly popular for item analysis. Theoretical considerations and simulation studies suggest that parameter estimates will become precise only by utilizing many items in large samples. Method A simulation study focusing on a single scale was performed on data with (a) n = 40, 60, 80, 120, 200, 300, 500, and 900 cases utilizing (b) 4, 8, 16, or 32 items. The items were (c) symmetrically distributed vs. skew (skewness 0, 1, and 2). Item loadings were (d) homogeneous vs. heterogeneous. Item loadings were (e) low vs. high. Half of the items had (f) a correlated error or not. The number of answering categories (g) was four vs. five. A to…
Weighted bounded mean oscillation applied to backward stochastic differential equations
2015
Abstract We deduce conditional L p -estimates for the variation of a solution of a BSDE. Both quadratic and sub-quadratic types of BSDEs are considered, and using the theory of weighted bounded mean oscillation we deduce new tail estimates for the solution ( Y , Z ) on subintervals of [ 0 , T ] . Some new results for the decoupling technique introduced in Geiss and Ylinen (2019) are obtained as well and some applications of the tail estimates are given.