Search results for "Statistics & Probability"
showing 10 items of 436 documents
Time-dependent weak rate of convergence for functions of generalized bounded variation
2016
Let $W$ denote the Brownian motion. For any exponentially bounded Borel function $g$ the function $u$ defined by $u(t,x)= \mathbb{E}[g(x{+}\sigma W_{T-t})]$ is the stochastic solution of the backward heat equation with terminal condition $g$. Let $u^n(t,x)$ denote the corresponding approximation generated by a simple symmetric random walk with time steps $2T/n$ and space steps $\pm \sigma \sqrt{T/n}$ where $\sigma > 0$. For quite irregular terminal conditions $g$ (bounded variation on compact intervals, locally H\"older continuous) the rate of convergence of $u^n(t,x)$ to $u(t,x)$ is considered, and also the behavior of the error $u^n(t,x)-u(t,x)$ as $t$ tends to $T$
A penalized approach for the bivariate ordered logistic model with applications to social and medical data
2018
Bivariate ordered logistic models (BOLMs) are appealing to jointly model the marginal distribution of two ordered responses and their association, given a set of covariates. When the number of categories of the responses increases, the number of global odds ratios to be estimated also increases, and estimation gets problematic. In this work we propose a non-parametric approach for the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of a BOLM, wherein penalties to the differences between adjacent row and column effects are applied. Our proposal is then compared to the Goodman and Dale models. Some simulation results as well as analyses of two real data sets are presented and discussed.
On Independent Component Analysis with Stochastic Volatility Models
2017
Consider a multivariate time series where each component series is assumed to be a linear mixture of latent mutually independent stationary time series. Classical independent component analysis (ICA) tools, such as fastICA, are often used to extract latent series, but they don't utilize any information on temporal dependence. Also financial time series often have periods of low and high volatility. In such settings second order source separation methods, such as SOBI, fail. We review here some classical methods used for time series with stochastic volatility, and suggest modifications of them by proposing a family of vSOBI estimators. These estimators use different nonlinearity functions to…
Is the p-Value a Suitable Basis for the Construction of Measures of Evidence? Comment on “The Role of p-Values in Judging the Strength of Evidence an…
2020
Dr. Gibson has to be congratulated for having enriched the wealth of articles written in response to the ASA statement on p-values of 2016 by a valuable and thoughtful contribution. We particularly...
On first exit times and their means for Brownian bridges
2017
For a Brownian bridge from $0$ to $y$ we prove that the mean of the first exit time from interval $(-h,h), \,\, h>0,$ behaves as $O(h^2)$ when $h \downarrow 0.$ Similar behavior is seen to hold also for the 3-dimensional Bessel bridge. For Brownian bridge and 3-dimensional Bessel bridge this mean of the first exit time has a puzzling representation in terms of the Kolmogorov distribution. The result regarding the Brownian bridge is applied to prove in detail an estimate needed by Walsh to determine the convergence of the binomial tree scheme for European options.
A model-based approach to Spotify data analysis: a Beta GLMM
2020
Digital music distribution is increasingly powered by automated mechanisms that continuously capture, sort and analyze large amounts of Web-based data. This paper deals with the management of songs audio features from a statistical point of view. In particular, it explores the data catching mechanisms enabled by Spotify Web API and suggests statistical tools for the analysis of these data. Special attention is devoted to songs popularity and a Beta model, including random effects, is proposed in order to give the first answer to questions like: which are the determinants of popularity? The identification of a model able to describe this relationship, the determination within the set of char…
Automatic variable selection for exposure-driven propensity score matching with unmeasured confounders.
2020
Multivariable model building for propensity score modeling approaches is challenging. A common propensity score approach is exposure-driven propensity score matching, where the best model selection strategy is still unclear. In particular, the situation may require variable selection, while it is still unclear if variables included in the propensity score should be associated with the exposure and the outcome, with either the exposure or the outcome, with at least the exposure or with at least the outcome. Unmeasured confounders, complex correlation structures, and non-normal covariate distributions further complicate matters. We consider the performance of different modeling strategies in …
Assessing the quality of studies in meta-research: Review/guidelines on the most important quality assessment tools
2020
Systematic reviews and meta-analyses pool data from individual studies to generate a higher level of evidence to be evaluated by guidelines. These reviews ultimately guide clinicians and stakeholders in health-related decisions. However, the informativeness and quality of evidence synthesis inherently depend on the quality of what has been pooled into meta-research projects. Moreover, beyond the quality of included individual studies, only a methodologically correct process, in relation to systematic reviews and meta-analyses themselves, can produce a reliable and valid evidence synthesis. Hence, quality of meta-research projects also affects evidence synthesis reliability. In this overview…
Consensus among preference rankings: a new weighted correlation coefficient for linear and weak orderings
2021
AbstractPreference data are a particular type of ranking data where some subjects (voters, judges,...) express their preferences over a set of alternatives (items). In most real life cases, some items receive the same preference by a judge, thus giving rise to a ranking with ties. An important issue involving rankings concerns the aggregation of the preferences into a “consensus”. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the consensus between rankings with ties, taking into account the importance of swapping elements belonging to the top (or to the bottom) of the ordering (position weights). By combining the structure of $$\tau _x$$ τ x proposed by Emond and Mason (J Multi-Criteria Decis…
Sparse relative risk regression models
2020
Summary Clinical studies where patients are routinely screened for many genomic features are becoming more routine. In principle, this holds the promise of being able to find genomic signatures for a particular disease. In particular, cancer survival is thought to be closely linked to the genomic constitution of the tumor. Discovering such signatures will be useful in the diagnosis of the patient, may be used for treatment decisions and, perhaps, even the development of new treatments. However, genomic data are typically noisy and high-dimensional, not rarely outstripping the number of patients included in the study. Regularized survival models have been proposed to deal with such scenarios…