Search results for "Systemic risk"
showing 10 items of 25 documents
‘Too interconnected to fail’ financial network of US CDS market: Topological fragility and systemic risk
2012
A small segment of credit default swaps (CDS) on residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) stand implicated in the 2007 financial crisis. The dominance of a few big players in the chains of insurance and reinsurance for CDS credit risk mitigation for banks' assets has led to the idea of too interconnected to fail (TITF) resulting, as in the case of AIG, of a tax payer bailout. We provide an empirical reconstruction of the US CDS network based on the FDIC Call Reports for off balance sheet bank data for the 4th quarter in 2007 and 2008. The propagation of financial contagion in networks with dense clustering which reflects high concentration or localization of exposures between few parti…
The Structure of Financial Networks
2010
We present here an overview of the use of networks in Finance and Economics. We show how this approach enables us to address important questions as, for example, the structure of control chains in financial systems, the systemic risk associated with them and the evolution of trade between nations. All these results are new in the field and allow for a better understanding and modelling of different economic systems.
The multiplex structure of interbank networks
2013
The interbank market has a natural multiplex network representation. We employ a unique database of supervisory reports of Italian banks to the Banca d'Italia that includes all bilateral exposures broken down by maturity and by the secured and unsecured nature of the contract. We find that layers have different topological properties and persistence over time. The presence of a link in a layer is not a good predictor of the presence of the same link in other layers. Maximum entropy models reveal different unexpected substructures, such as network motifs, in different layers. Using the total interbank network or focusing on a specific layer as representative of the other layers provides a po…
Unconventional monetary policy reaction functions: evidence from the US
2020
Abstract We specify unconventional monetary policy reaction functions for the Fed using linear and nonlinear econometric frameworks. We find that nonstandard policy measures are largely driven by the dynamics of inflation and the output gap, with the effect being particularly strong during QE rounds. Moreover, we uncover the presence of asymmetry and regime dependence in central bank’s actions since the global financial crisis, especially concerning the response of the term spread and the shadow short rate to the growth rate of central bank reserves. From a policy perspective and given the lack of a systematic response of monetary policy to asset price growth in nonstandard times, our findi…
Why banks are not too big to fail - evidence from the CDS market
2013
This paper argues that bank size is not a satisfactory measure of systemic risk because it neglects aspects such as interconnectedness, correlation, and the economic context. In order to differentiate the effect of bank size from that of systemic importance, we control for systemic risk using the CoVaR measure introduced by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011). We show that a bank's contribution to systemic risk has a significant negative effect on banks’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads, supporting the too‐systemic‐to‐fail hypothesis. Once we control for systemic risk, bank size (relative to gross domestic product (GDP)) has either no or a positive effect on banks’ CDS spreads. The effect of ba…
Structural contagion and vulnerability to unexpected liquidity shortfalls
2012
This paper assumes that financial fluctuations are the result of the dynamic interaction between liquidity and solvency conditions of individual economic units. The framework is an extention of Sordi and Vercelli (2012) designed as an heterogeneous agent model which proceeds through discrete time steps within a finite time horizon. The interaction at the micro-level between economic units monitors the spread of contagion and systemic risk, producing interesting complex dynamics. The model is analysed by means of numerical simulations and systemic risk modelling, where local interaction of units is captured and analysed by the bilateral provision of liquidity among units. The behaviour and e…
Interbank lending and the spread of bank failures: A network model of systemic risk
2012
We model a stylized banking system where banks are characterized by the amount of capital, cash reserves and their exposure to the interbank loan market as borrowers as well as lenders. A network of interbank lending is established that is used as a transmission mechanism for the failure of banks through the system. We trigger a potential banking crisis by exogenously failing a bank and investigate the spread of this failure within the banking system. We find the obvious result that the size of the bank initially failing is the dominant factor whether contagion occurs, but for the extent of its spread the characteristics of the network of interbank loans are most important. These results ha…
Exploring a new incubation model for FinTechs: Regulatory sandboxes
2021
Research on incubation models indicates that incubators and accelerators are crucial catalysts for the development of start-ups. To facilitate start-ups in financial markets, several regulatory authorities have adopted a new incubation model called a ‘regulatory sandbox’. Regulatory sandboxes enable eligible applicants to test their technology-enabled financial solutions for a certain period of time (subject to conditions the regulator imposes). As such, these instruments allow innovation while preventing severe instability in financial markets caused by systemic risk. Despite their importance, management research has devoted little attention to studying how sandboxes operate as a new incub…
The Uncertain Role of Banks’ Corporate Governance in Systemic Risk Regulation
2011
This paper examines how corporate governance reform of banks relates to systemic risk. Although there has been substantial emphasis on the importance of corporate governance of banks, it is not entirely clear how this enterprise relates to the goal of financial stability. The first part of the paper differentiates between kinds of risk that arise from the structure of the firm, such as shareholder ownership, limited liability and the separation between control and ownership, and kinds of risk that arise from interactions at the systemic level. It highlights why the risk-taking of banks presents, in many respects, a special case not only because of the structure of their business but also becau…
Network-Based Computational Techniques to Determine the Risk Drivers of Bank Failures During a Systemic Banking Crisis
2018
This paper employs a computational model of solvency and liquidity contagion assessing the vulnerability of banks to systemic risk. We find that the main risk drivers relate to the financial connections a bank has and the market concentration, apart from the size of the bank triggering the contagion, while balance sheets play only a minor role. We also find that market concentration might facilitate banks to withstand liquidity shocks better while exposing them to larger solvency chocks. Our results are validated through an out-of-sample forecasting that shows that both type I and type II prediction errors are reduced if we include network characteristics in our prediction model.