Search results for "Time serie"
showing 10 items of 261 documents
Joint Graph Learning and Signal Recovery via Kalman Filter for Multivariate Auto-Regressive Processes
2018
In this paper, an adaptive Kalman filter algorithm is proposed for simultaneous graph topology learning and graph signal recovery from noisy time series. Each time series corresponds to one node of the graph and underlying graph edges express the causality among nodes. We assume that graph signals are generated via a multivariate auto-regressive processes (MAR), generated by an innovation noise and graph weight matrices. Then we relate the state transition matrix of Kalman filter to the graph weight matrices since both of them can play the role of signal propagation and transition. Our proposed Kalman filter for MAR processes, called KF-MAR, runs three main steps; prediction, update, and le…
Taxonomy of stock market indices
2000
We investigate sets of financial non-redundant and nonsynchronously recorded time series. The sets are composed by a number of stock market indices located all over the world in five continents. By properly selecting the time horizon of returns and by using a reference currency we find a meaningful taxonomy. The detection of such a taxonomy proves that interpretable information can be stored in a set of nonsynchronously recorded time series.
Power-law relaxation in a complex system: Omori law after a financial market crash
2003
We study the relaxation dynamics of a financial market just after the occurrence of a crash by investigating the number of times the absolute value of an index return is exceeding a given threshold value. We show that the empirical observation of a power law evolution of the number of events exceeding the selected threshold (a behavior known as the Omori law in geophysics) is consistent with the simultaneous occurrence of (i) a return probability density function characterized by a power law asymptotic behavior and (ii) a power law relaxation decay of its typical scale. Our empirical observation cannot be explained within the framework of simple and widespread stochastic volatility models.
On Independent Component Analysis with Stochastic Volatility Models
2017
Consider a multivariate time series where each component series is assumed to be a linear mixture of latent mutually independent stationary time series. Classical independent component analysis (ICA) tools, such as fastICA, are often used to extract latent series, but they don't utilize any information on temporal dependence. Also financial time series often have periods of low and high volatility. In such settings second order source separation methods, such as SOBI, fail. We review here some classical methods used for time series with stochastic volatility, and suggest modifications of them by proposing a family of vSOBI estimators. These estimators use different nonlinearity functions to…
Blind Source Separation Based on Joint Diagonalization in R: The Packages JADE and BSSasymp
2017
Blind source separation (BSS) is a well-known signal processing tool which is used to solve practical data analysis problems in various fields of science. In BSS, we assume that the observed data consists of linear mixtures of latent variables. The mixing system and the distributions of the latent variables are unknown. The aim is to find an estimate of an unmixing matrix which then transforms the observed data back to latent sources. In this paper we present the R packages JADE and BSSasymp. The package JADE offers several BSS methods which are based on joint diagonalization. Package BSSasymp contains functions for computing the asymptotic covariance matrices as well as their data-based es…
Recurrence Plots in Nonlinear Time Series Analysis: Free Software
2002
Recurrence plots are graphical devices specially suited to detect hidden dynamical patterns and nonlinearities in data. However, there are few programs available to apply such a mehodology. This paper reviews one of the best free programs to apply nonlinear time series analysis: Visual Recurrence Analysis (VRA). This program is targeted to recurrence analysis and the so-called Recurrence Quantitative Analysis (RQA, the quantitative counterpart of recurrence plots), although it includes many procedures in a friendly visual environment. Comparisons with alternative programs are performed.
Analyzing Temperature Effects on Mortality Within theREnvironment: The Constrained Segmented Distributed Lag Parameterization
2010
Here we present and discuss the R package modTempEff including a set of functions aimed at modelling temperature effects on mortality with time series data. The functions fit a particular log linear model which allows to capture the two main features of mortality- temperature relationships: nonlinearity and distributed lag effect. Penalized splines and segmented regression constitute the core of the modelling framework. We briefly review the model and illustrate the functions throughout a simulated dataset.
Holt–Winters Forecasting: An Alternative Formulation Applied to UK Air Passenger Data
2007
Abstract This paper provides a formulation for the additive Holt–Winters forecasting procedure that simplifies both obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of all unknowns, smoothing parameters and initial conditions, and the computation of point forecasts and reliable predictive intervals. The stochastic component of the model is introduced by means of additive, uncorrelated, homoscedastic and Normal errors, and then the joint distribution of the data vector, a multivariate Normal distribution, is obtained. In the case where a data transformation was used to improve the fit of the model, cumulative forecasts are obtained here using a Monte-Carlo approximation. This paper describes the metho…
Introducing libeemd: a program package for performing the ensemble empirical mode decomposition
2016
The ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and its complete variant (CEEMDAN) are adaptive, noise-assisted data analysis methods that improve on the ordinary empirical mode decomposition (EMD). All these methods decompose possibly nonlinear and/or nonstationary time series data into a finite amount of components separated by instantaneous frequencies. This decomposition provides a powerful method to look into the different processes behind a given time series data, and provides a way to separate short time-scale events from a general trend. We present a free software implementation of EMD, EEMD and CEEMDAN and give an overview of the EMD methodology and the algorithms used in the deco…
Multiscale Granger causality
2017
In the study of complex physical and biological systems represented by multivariate stochastic processes, an issue of great relevance is the description of the system dynamics spanning multiple temporal scales. While methods to assess the dynamic complexity of individual processes at different time scales are well-established, multiscale analysis of directed interactions has never been formalized theoretically, and empirical evaluations are complicated by practical issues such as filtering and downsampling. Here we extend the very popular measure of Granger causality (GC), a prominent tool for assessing directed lagged interactions between joint processes, to quantify information transfer a…