Search results for "Ull"
showing 10 items of 3152 documents
The Legacy and the Tyranny of Time: Exit and Re-Entry of Sovereigns to International Capital Markets
2018
We use a novel continuous-time Weibull model (without and) with a change-point in the duration dependence parameter to investigate the duration of the exit and re-entry of sovereigns to international capital markets. Relying on annual data for a large panel of countries over the period 1970-2011, we find that, as the reputation of debtor countries as good (bad) borrowers solidifies over time, those episodes are more likely to end - i.e. the "legacy of time". Debtor countries can take advantage of the "benefit of doubt" of creditors during short exit spells. However, when exits are long and the reputation as a bad borrower emerges, no more "complacency" makes it more difficult for them to bo…
Earnings-related unemployment benefits and unemployment
2003
Abstract We show that a stronger earnings relationship of unemployment compensation reduces wages and increases employment in an economy in which wages are determined by a trade union that maximises the rent from unionisation. The opposite result applies for a utilitarian union. Using manufacturing and non-manufacturing data for 16 OECD countries, estimates suggest that a 10% increase in the earnings relationship is associated with a 1.9% fall in manufacturing wages, a 0.6% reduction in non-manufacturing wages and a 7.3% reduction in unemployment.
Fiscal adjustments, labour market flexibility and unemployment
2014
Using a panel of 17 countries for 1978-2009, we find that tax-driven consolidations increase unemployment by 0.25 percentage points. Labour market flexibility mitigates this: a one-point rise in the flexibility index reduces youth (long-term) unemployment by 0.6-0.7 (1.8-2.2) percentage points.
The Employment Effect of Reforming a Public Employment Agency
2015
By how much does an increase in operating effectiveness of a public employment agency (PEA) and a reduction of unemployment benefits reduce unemployment? Using a recent labour market reform in Germany as background, we find that an enhanced effectiveness of the PEA explains about 20% of the observed post-reform unemployment decline. The role of unemployment benefit reduction explains just about 5% of the observed decline. Due to disincentive effects resulting from the reform, the reform of the PEA could have had an even higher impact on unemployment reduction if there had been less focus on long-term unemployed workers.
Unemployment, cycle and gender
2012
Abstract This study analyzes the relationship between unemployment and the business cycle in the UK and the US. For both economies, a strong and definite association is found that shows that cyclical shocks extend their effect on unemployment over several quarters. This association is much more intense for male unemployment than for female unemployment, although some strength has been lost in the UK in the last few years.
Frictional and Non-Frictional Unemployment in a Labor Market with Matching Frictions
2016
Using the Mortensen and Pissarides model of a labor market with frictions, this paper proposes a new method, simpler than the one presented in Michaillat (2012), for decomposing unemployment into frictional and non-frictional (rationing) unemployment for a derived rigid wage-setting rule. We use it to compute the frictional and non frictional unemployment rate for two economies characterized by different labor market institutions, namely the US and the Spanish economy. For the entire period under study, the US frictional unemployment rate is around 36 per cent of total unemployment, whereas for Spain, approximately 20 per cent of all unemployment is due to frictions. This outcome may be exp…
Banking crises, labor reforms, and unemployment
2013
Abstract Using a sample of 97 countries spanning the period 1980–2008, we estimate that banking crises have, on average, a large negative impact on unemployment. This effect, however, largely depends on the flexibility of labor market institutions: while in countries with more flexible labor markets the impact of banking crises is sharper but short-lived, in countries with more rigid labor markets the effect is initially more subdued but highly persistent. These effects are even larger for youth unemployment in the short term, and long-term unemployment in the medium term. Conversely, large upfront, or gradual but significant, comprehensive market reforms have a positive impact on unemploym…
Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: new evidence for OECD countries
2004
Abstract The paper tests hysteresis effects in unemployment using panel data for 19 OECD countries. We apply a sequential procedure based in two multivariate augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF)-type panel unit root tests in a SURE framework. We strongly reject the joint null of hysteresis and find that only seven countries present evidence of hysteresis.
Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between stock prices and dividends
2008
According to several empirical studies, the linear present-value model fails to explain the behaviour of stock prices in the long run. We analyse the possible presence of threshold cointegration between real stock prices and dividends for the US market during the period from 1871:1 to 2004:6. According to our results, the null hypothesis of linear cointegration between stock prices and dividends is rejected in favour of a two-regime threshold cointegration model. We find also that stock prices do not respond to equilibrium error, and dividends respond to the past divergence only if the deviation from the equilibrium error does not exceed the estimated threshold parameter. This in turn would…
A PROOF OF THE POWER OF KIM'S TEST AGAINST STATIONARY PROCESSES WITH STRUCTURAL BREAKS
2005
Recently, Kim (2000)1 and Busetti and Taylor (2004) have proposed different ratio-based procedures to test the hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of changing persistence.2 This includes the alternative of a process changing from 1(0) to I(1) and vice versa, although Busetti and Taylor (2004) show that Kim's original test (2000) is inconsistent against fixed I(1) I(0) alternatives. In this note we show that, similarly to other stationarity tests (e.g., Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin [KPSS]), Kim's test (2000) rejects the null of stationarity asymptotically with probability one, whenever the true data generating process is a stationary one around a constant term with…