Search results for "Uncertainty"
showing 10 items of 1010 documents
Estimation of flood inundation probabilities using global hazard indexes based on hydrodynamic variables
2008
In this paper a new procedure to derive flood hazard maps incorporating uncertainty concepts is presented. The layout of the procedure can be resumed as follows: (1) stochastic input of flood hydrograph modelled through a direct Monte-Carlo simulation based on flood recorded data. Generation of flood peaks and flow volumes has been obtained via copulas, which describe and model the correlation between these two variables independently of the marginal laws involved. The shape of hydrograph has been generated on the basis of a historical significant flood events, via cluster analysis; (2) modelling of flood propagation using a hyperbolic finite element model based on the DSV equations; (3) de…
An urban drainage stormwater quality model: model development and uncertainty quantification
2010
Summary The evaluation of urban stormwater quality is of relevant importance for urban drainage, and mathematical models may be of great interest in this respect. To date, several detailed mathematical models are available to predict stormwater quantity–quality characteristics in urban drainage systems. However, only a few models take sewer sediments into account, considering their cohesive-like properties that influence the build-up process of the pollutant load. Furthermore, the model data requirements, especially for the quality aspects, are extensive, which limit their applicability and affect model results with large uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis provides a measure or index regardi…
Micropollutants throughout an integrated urban drainage model: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
2017
Abstract The paper presents the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an integrated urban drainage model which includes micropollutants. Specifically, a bespoke integrated model developed in previous studies has been modified in order to include the micropollutant assessment (namely, sulfamethoxazole – SMX). The model takes into account also the interactions between the three components of the system: sewer system (SS), wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and receiving water body (RWB). The analysis has been applied to an experimental catchment nearby Palermo (Italy): the Nocella catchment. Overall, five scenarios, each characterized by different uncertainty combinations of sub-systems (i.e…
Uncertainty in water quality modelling: The applicability of Variance Decomposition Approach
2010
Quantification of uncertainty is of paramount interest in integrated urban drainage water quality modelling. Indeed, the assessment of the reliability of the results of complex water quality models is crucial in understanding their significance. However, the state of knowledge regarding uncertainties in urban drainage models is poor. In the case of integrated urban drainage water quality models, due to the fact that integrated approaches are basically a cascade of sub-models (simulating the sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving water body), uncertainty produced in one sub-model propagates to the following ones in a manner dependent on the model structure, the estimation of …
Bayesian approach for uncertainty quantification in water quality modelling: The influence of prior distribution
2010
Summary Mathematical models are of common use in urban drainage, and they are increasingly being applied to support decisions about design and alternative management strategies. In this context, uncertainty analysis is of undoubted necessity in urban drainage modelling. However, despite the crucial role played by uncertainty quantification, several methodological aspects need to be clarified and deserve further investigation, especially in water quality modelling. One of them is related to the “a priori” hypotheses involved in the uncertainty analysis. Such hypotheses are usually condensed in “a priori” distributions assessing the most likely values for model parameters. This paper explores…
Uncertainty in sewer sediment deposit modelling: detailed vs simplified modelling approaches.
2012
Abstract The paper presents the results of a study in which the uncertainty levels associated with a detailed and a simplified/parsimonious sewer sediment modelling approach have been compared. The detailed approach used an Infoworks CS sewer network model combined with a user developed sediment transport code and the simplified approach used a conceptual sewer flow and quality model. The two approaches have been applied to a single case study sewer network and the simulation results compared. The case study was selected as moderate storm events had occurred during a 2 year rainfall and sewer flow monitoring period. Flooding had been observed and this was thought to be caused by significant…
Role of Modeling Uncertainty in the Estimation of Climate and Socioeconomic Impact on River Water Quality
2012
AbstractClimate is one of the most important factors leading to changes in the hydrologic and environmental characteristics of river basins. When considering water quality, the natural factors should be weighed against anthropogenic factors (such as urbanization, increased population, and higher water demand) that may increase or decrease the effect of climatic modifications. Any prediction of future climatic and anthropogenic scenarios is affected by uncertainty and the modelling tools that are used for evaluating their impact on receiving water bodies. The present paper is aimed at investigating the complexity of such analyses and the uncertainty related to future impact predictions based…
Uncertainty assessment of sewer sediment erosion modelling
2008
Urban stormwater quality modelling has become a fundamental issue in the evaluation of the receiving water bodies' quality state. Laboratory study as well as field campaigns have widely demonstrated that combined sewer sediments present cohesive-like properties which increase their resistance to erosion. However, only few models take sewer sediments into account considering their rheological properties. In the present paper different sewer sediment erosion models have been tested and their uncertainties have been assessed. The main goal was to discriminate the algorithms with respect to their robustness and the reduction of uncertainty. In order to accomplish such objective the GLUE methodo…
Uncertainty analysis of the influence of rainfall time resolution in the modelling of urban drainage systems
2005
In urban drainage modelling, rainfall temporal variability can be considered as one of the most critical knowledge elements when dealing with rainfall–runoff models input data. The rainfall data temporal resolution usually available for practical applications is often lower than that requested for the rainfall–runoff simulation in urban areas, greatly compromising model accuracy. The present paper evaluates the influence of rainfall temporal resolution on the uncertainty of the response of rainfall–runoff modelling in urban environments. Analyses have been carried out using historical rainfall–discharge data collected for about 10 years in Parco d'Orleans experimental catchment (Palermo, It…
Uncertainty assessment of an integrated urban drainage model
2009
Over the last few years, the use of mathematical models has gained importance in urban drainage system management; indeed, such models enable the combined analysis of different components that constitute a drainage system; the sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and the receiving water body. The effectiveness of an integrated approach has been widely demonstrated in the past and is presented in the EU Water Framework Directive, which also introduces a new point of view regarding the water quality management of the whole system, requiring a global analysis at the river basin scale for pollutant sources. However, integrated urban drainage models introduce several uncertain factors that a…