Search results for "Uncertainty"
showing 10 items of 1010 documents
Assessment of the integrated urban water quality model complexity through identifiability analysis
2010
Urban sources of water pollution have often been cited as the primary cause of poor water quality in receiving water bodies (RWB), and recently many studies have been conducted to investigate both continuous sources, such as wastewater-treatment plant (WWTP) effluents, and intermittent sources, such as combined sewer overflows (CSOs). An urban drainage system must be considered jointly, i.e., by means of an integrated approach. However, although the benefits of an integrated approach have been widely demonstrated, several aspects have prevented its wide application, such as the scarcity of field data for not only the input and output variables but also parameters that govern intermediate st…
A new index for measuring seasonality: A transportation cost approach
2017
Abstract Seasonal fluctuations characterize many natural and social phenomena. Although the causes and impacts of seasonality are generally well documented in different study contexts, and many methods for isolating the seasonal component have been developed, considerably less attention has been paid to the measurement of the degree of seasonality. After reviewing the main indices used for measuring seasonality in different study contexts, we will propose a new approach in which seasonality is evaluated on the basis of the solution of a transportation problem. By considering the interdisciplinary nature of seasonal phenomena, the topic of measuring seasonality merits attention from a wide v…
Global sensitivity analysis for urban water quality modelling: comparison of different methods
2012
Sensitivity analysis represents an important step in improving the understanding and use of environmental models. Indeed, by means of global sensitivity analysis (GSA), modellers may identify both important (factor prioritization) and non-influential (factor fixing) model input factors. However, despite the potentialities of GSA methods, only few applications have been published in the field of urban drainage modelling. In order to fill this gap this paper presents a comparison among three GSA methods (SRC, Extended-FAST and Morris screening) on an urban drainage storm-water model. In particular, an exhaustive discussion on their peculiarities, applicability, and reliability is presented. S…
Risky choices in strategic environments: An experimental investigation of a real options game
2019
Managers frequently make decisions under conditions of fundamental uncertainty due the stochastic nature of the outcomes and competitive rivalry. In this study, we experimentally test a theoretical model under fundamental uncertainty and competitive rivalry by designing a sequential interaction game between two players. The first mover can decide either to choose a sure outcome that assigns a risky outcome to the second mover or to pass the decision to the second mover. If the second player gets the chance to decide, she can choose between a sure outcome, conditioned by the assignment of a risky payoff to the first mover, or the sharing of the risky outcome with the first mover. We then int…
Effectual tactics in digital intrapreneurship: A process model
2020
Abstract Uncertainty and the pursuit of new ventures are intricately linked. Digital technologies open up new ways for uncertainty handling in the pursuit of novelty. In this paper, we develop a process model that traces the dynamics among uncertainty, digitally enabled tactics, and organizational novelty. The model points to the potential of technologies that are evocative, disposable, and responsive for venturing in complex, uncertainty-ridden contexts. Our research builds on extant conceptualizations of complexity in innovation journeys, in conjunction with perspectives on effectual entrepreneurial tactics. Empirically, we investigate uncertainty handling through a longitudinal case stud…
A Review of Business Intelligence and Analytics in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
2019
Business intelligence and analytics (BI&A) has become a cornerstone of many organizations in making informed decisions. Despite the importance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to all world economies, research in BI&A focuses mostly on large enterprises. To aid in closing this gap, this study provides a comprehensive review of the literature sources in this domain. Through a systematic literature review, this study collects, categorizes, synthesizes, and analyzes 78 articles related to BI&A in SMEs. The research topics that are addressed include BI&A components and solutions, Mobile BI&A, Cloud BI&A, and BI&A application, adoption, implementation, and …
Integrated modelling of the influence of urbanization and climate change on river water quality
2010
Climate change is one of the most important drivers modifying the hydrologic and environmental characteristics of natural catchments. When dealing with the quality of natural waters, these factors should be weighed up against anthropogenic factors that may increase or decrease the effect of climatic modifications. However, a detailed and more generalised analysis of such environmental impacts at a relatively small scale is currently lack. This paper aims to fill this gap. The use of a holistic approach is also required by the EU Water Framework Directive, which prescribes integrated analysis for river basin management in order to meet environmental and ecological objectives. In order to qua…
Uncertainty Assessment of a Water-Quality Model for Ephemeral Rivers Using GLUE Analysis
2011
Every model is, by definition, a simplification of the system under investigation. Although it would be desirable to reduce the gap between the simulated and the observed behaviors of the system to zero, this reduction is generally impossible owing to the unavoidable uncertainties inherent in any modeling procedure. Uncertainty analyses can provide useful insights into the best model approach to be used for obtaining results with a high level of significance and reliability. The evaluation of parameter uncertainties is necessary for calibration and for estimating the impact of these uncertainties on model performance. In this context, the uncertainty of a river water-quality model developed…
Assessment of data availability influence on integrated urban drainage modelling uncertainty
2009
In urban water quality management, several models are connected and integrated for analysing the fate of pollutants from the sources in the urban catchment to the final recipient; classical problems connected with the selection and calibration of parameters are amplified by the complexity of the modelling approach increasing their uncertainty. The present paper aims at studying the influence of reductions in available data on the modelling response uncertainty with respect to the different integrated modelling outputs (both considering quantity and quality variables). At this scope, a parsimonious integrated home-made model has been used allowing for analysing the combinative effect of data…
The role of emotion regulation and intolerance to uncertainty on the relationship between fear of COVID-19 and distress
2022
AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic is increasing negative consequences on mental health around the globe. To date, research on what psychological factors could influence individuals’ distress is still scarce. The current study aims to test a multiple mediation model to examine the role of Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) and emotional regulation (i.e., expressive suppression and cognitive reappraisal) as joint factors, which can increase understanding of psychological distress due to the COVID-19 outbreak. An online survey measuring fear of COVID-19, IU, emotional regulation, and psychological distress was administered to 3863 Italian adults (females 73.3%; Mage = 36.44; SD = 14.74) during lockdo…