Search results for "Uncertainty"
showing 10 items of 1010 documents
Applications de type Lasota–Yorke à trou : mesure de probabilité conditionellement invariante et mesure de probabilité invariante sur l'ensemble des …
2003
Abstract Let T :I→I be a Lasota–Yorke map on the interval I, let Y be a nontrivial sub-interval of I and g 0 :I→ R + , be a strictly positive potential which belongs to BV and admits a conformal measure m. We give constructive conditions on Y ensuring the existence of absolutely continuous (w.r.t. m) conditionally invariant probability measures to nonabsorption in Y. These conditions imply also existence of an invariant probability measure on the set X∞ of points which never fall into Y. Our conditions allow rather “large” holes.
Stochastic order characterization of uniform integrability and tightness
2013
We show that a family of random variables is uniformly integrable if and only if it is stochastically bounded in the increasing convex order by an integrable random variable. This result is complemented by proving analogous statements for the strong stochastic order and for power-integrable dominating random variables. Especially, we show that whenever a family of random variables is stochastically bounded by a p-integrable random variable for some p>1, there is no distinction between the strong order and the increasing convex order. These results also yield new characterizations of relative compactness in Wasserstein and Prohorov metrics.
Sign test of independence between two random vectors
2003
A new affine invariant extension of the quadrant test statistic Blomqvist (Ann. Math. Statist. 21 (1950) 593) based on spatial signs is proposed for testing the hypothesis of independence. In the elliptic case, the new test statistic is asymptotically equivalent to the interdirection test by Gieser and Randles (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 92 (1997) 561) but is easier to compute in practice. Limiting Pitman efficiencies and simulations are used to compare the test to the classical Wilks’ test. peerReviewed
Directed random walk on the backbone of an oriented percolation cluster
2012
We consider a directed random walk on the backbone of the infinite cluster generated by supercritical oriented percolation, or equivalently the space-time embedding of the ``ancestral lineage'' of an individual in the stationary discrete-time contact process. We prove a law of large numbers and an annealed central limit theorem (i.e., averaged over the realisations of the cluster) using a regeneration approach. Furthermore, we obtain a quenched central limit theorem (i.e.\ for almost any realisation of the cluster) via an analysis of joint renewals of two independent walks on the same cluster.
Modeling temperature effects on mortality: multiple segmented relationships with common break points.
2008
We present a model for estimation of temperature effects on mortality that is able to capture jointly the typical features of every temperature-death relationship, that is, nonlinearity and delayed effect of cold and heat over a few days. Using a segmented approximation along with a doubly penalized spline-based distributed lag parameterization, estimates and relevant standard errors of the cold- and heat-related risks and the heat tolerance are provided. The model is applied to data from Milano, Italy.
Analyzing Temperature Effects on Mortality Within theREnvironment: The Constrained Segmented Distributed Lag Parameterization
2010
Here we present and discuss the R package modTempEff including a set of functions aimed at modelling temperature effects on mortality with time series data. The functions fit a particular log linear model which allows to capture the two main features of mortality- temperature relationships: nonlinearity and distributed lag effect. Penalized splines and segmented regression constitute the core of the modelling framework. We briefly review the model and illustrate the functions throughout a simulated dataset.
Cotas inferiores para el QAP-Arbol
1985
The Tree-QAP is a special case of the Quadratic Assignment Problem where the flows not equal zero form a tree. No condition is required for the distance matrix. In this paper we present an integer programming formulation for the Tree-QAP. We use this formulation to construct four Lagrangean relaxations that produce several lower bounds for this problem. To solve one of the relaxed problems we present a Dynamic Programming algorithm which is a generalization of the algorithm of this type that gives a lower bound for the Travelling Salesman Problem. A comparison is given between the lower bounds obtained by each ralaxation for examples with size from 12 to 25.
Mixed Non-Parametric and Parametric Estimation Techniques in R Package etasFLP for Earthquakes’ Description
2017
etasFLP is an R package which fits an epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model to an earthquake catalog; non-parametric background seismicity can be estimated through a forward predictive likelihood approach, while parametric components of triggered seismicity are estimated through maximum likelihood; estimation steps are alternated until convergence is obtained and for each event the probability of being a background event is estimated. The package includes options which allow its wide use. Methods for plot, summary and profile are defined for the main output class object. The paper provides examples of the package's use with description of the underlying R and Fortran routines.
On the foundations of statistics and decision theory
1983
Este trabajo es una exposicion elemental de los fundamentos de la teoria de la decision a un nivel de generalidad que cubre la mayor parte de las aplicaciones de la metodologia bayesiana. Se subraya el contenido intuitivo de los axiomas que se sugieren y de los resultados que se obtienen. Se argumenta que la inferencia estadistica es un caso particular de problema de decision al que puede aplicarse el razonamiento axiomatico que se expone
Ranking Scientific Journals Via Latent Class Models for Polytomous Item Response Data
2015
Summary We propose a model-based strategy for ranking scientific journals starting from a set of observed bibliometric indicators that represent imperfect measures of the unobserved ‘value’ of a journal. After discretizing the available indicators, we estimate an extended latent class model for polytomous item response data and use the estimated model to cluster journals. We illustrate our approach by using the data from the Italian research evaluation exercise that was carried out for the period 2004–2010, focusing on the set of journals that are considered relevant for the subarea statistics and financial mathematics. Using four bibliometric indicators (IF, IF5, AIS and the h-index), some…