Search results for "Uncertainty"
showing 10 items of 1010 documents
Comments on “Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability
2019
Abstract–: We establish a link between the approaches proposed by Oster (2019) and Pei, Pischke, and Schwandt (2019) which contribute to the development of inferential procedures for causal effects in the challenging and empirically relevant situation where the unknown data-generation process is not included in the set of models considered by the investigator. We use the general misspecification framework recently proposed by De Luca, Magnus, and Peracchi (2018) to analyze and understand the implications of the restrictions imposed by the two approaches.
Incorporating big microdata in life table construction: A hypothesis-free estimator
2019
Abstract The IT revolution, now more than ever, offers a cheaper and faster way to collect, store, transmit and process data. Detailed microdata of dates of death, migration and birth are already becoming available for general populations. In this paper, we develop within the family of period-based estimators a new, assumption-free estimator for constructing life tables. The estimator proposed exploits all the detailed data available and is free of the theoretical inconsistencies that the estimators currently used by most official statistical agencies have. We compute the proposed estimator for a real database and test the suitability of the hypotheses on which the estimators used so far re…
Delay in claim settlement and ruin probability approximations
1995
We introduce a general risk model for portfolios with delayed claims which is a natural extension of the classical Poisson model. We investigate ruin problems for different premium principles and provide approximations for the ruin probability. We conclude with some specific models, for example, for IBNR portfolios and portfolios where the pay-off process depends on the claim size.
Combining the intensity and sequencing of the poverty experience:a class of longitudinal poverty indices
2011
Summary Traditional measures of the persistence of poverty do not devote enough attention to the sequence of spells of poverty. We propose a new class of indices which measures the severity of chronic poverty, taking into account the way in which spells of poverty and non-poverty follow one another along individual life courses. All the years spent in poverty concur with the measurement of the persistency of poverty, albeit with a decreasing contribution provided that the distance between two consecutive spells of poverty becomes longer. Moreover, the distance from the poverty line and the poverty persistence probabilities are explicitly taken into account. A macrolevel index, which allows …
Replication invariance on NTU games
2001
Two concepts of replication (conflictual and non-conflictual) are extended from the class of pure bargaining games to the class of NTU games. The behavior of the Harsanyi, Shapley NTU, Egalitarian and Maschler-Owen solutions of the replica games is compared with that of the Nash and Egalitarian solutions in pure bargaining games.
Using Parametric Bootstrap to Introduce and Manage Uncertainty: Replicated Loaded Insurance Life Tables
2019
Insurance companies develop loaded life tables to protect themselves against deviations, for example, in the number of expected deaths or in the (residual) expectation of life of their insured. In ...
Productivity, R&D Spillovers and Educational Attainment*
2012
Economists have long agreed that the local availability of a more qualified workforce generates significant spillovers. This study suggests that these externalities may arise because plants by having access to a more qualified workforce at a regional level, can benefit more from R&D spillovers than those located in areas with less qualified workforce. This hypothesis is tested on a sample of British establishments drawn from the Annual Business Inquiry over the period 1997–2002. The main results are consistent with our expectations that the regional differences in the industry-level educational attainment of the workforce available to a plant will condition its capability of absorbing R&D s…
Spatial Vote Redistribution in Redrawn Polling Units
2012
Summary A large proportion of electoral analyses using geography are performed on a small area basis. In each new election there are always modifications to the previously existing polling units. The use of past voting results in small area aggregate data electoral forecasting models and political analyses therefore requires establishing a correspondence between old and new polling units. Traditionally, the task of tracking changes to assign an electoral history to the new units properly has been carried out by hand, comparing unit codes and census figures. This is an extremely cumbersome task that cannot always be performed, as when a massive (geographically intense) reorganization of poll…
Olley–Pakes productivity decomposition: computation and inference
2016
Summary We show how a moment-based estimation procedure can be used to compute point estimates and standard errors for the two components of the widely used Olley–Pakes decomposition of aggregate (weighted average) productivity. When applied to business level microdata, the procedure allows for autocovariance and heteroscedasticity robust inference and hypothesis testing about, for example, the coevolution of the productivity components in different groups of firms. We provide an application to Finnish firm level data and find that formal statistical inference casts doubt on the conclusions that one might draw on the basis of a visual inspection of the components of the decomposition.
Booms, Busts and normal times in the housing market
2015
We assess the existence of duration dependence in the likelihood of an end in housing booms, busts, and normal times. Using data for 20 industrial countries and a continuous-time Weibull duration model, we find evidence of positive duration dependence suggesting that housing market cycles have become longer over the last decades. Then, we extend the baseline Weibull model and allow for the presence of a change-point in the duration dependence parameter.We show that positive duration dependence is present in booms and busts that last less than 26 quarters, but that does not seem to be the case for longer phases of the housing market cycle. For normal times, no evidence of change-points is fo…