Search results for "Uncertainty"
showing 10 items of 1010 documents
Spatial data of Ixodes ricinus instar abundance and nymph pathogen prevalence, Scandinavia, 2016-2017.
2020
ticks carry pathogens that can cause disease in both animals and humans, and there is a need to monitor the distribution and abundance of ticks and the pathogens they carry to pinpoint potential high risk areas for tick-borne disease transmission. In a joint Scandinavian study, we measured Ixodes ricinus instar abundance at 159 sites in southern Scandinavia in August-September, 2016, and collected 29,440 tick nymphs at 50 of these sites. We additionally measured abundance at 30 sites in August-September, 2017. We tested the 29,440 tick nymphs in pools of 10 in a Fluidigm real-time PCR chip to screen for 17 different tick-associated pathogens, 2 pathogen groups and 3 tick species. We present…
A critical evaluation of the current “p-value controversy”
2017
This article has been triggered by the initiative launched in March 2016 by the Board of Directors of the American Statistical Association (ASA) to counteract the current p-value focus of statistical research practices that allegedly "have contributed to a reproducibility crisis in science." It is pointed out that in the very wide field of statistics applied to medicine, many of the problems raised in the ASA statement are not as severe as in the areas the authors may have primarily in mind, although several of them are well-known experts in biostatistics and epidemiology. This is mainly due to the fact that a large proportion of medical research falls under the realm of a well developed bo…
Analysis and modelling of wind speed in New York
2010
In this paper we propose an ARMA time-series model for the wind speed at a single spatial location, and estimate it on in-sample data recorded in three different wind farm regions in New York state. The data have a three-hour granularity, but based on applications to financial wind derivatives contracts, we also consider daily average wind speeds. We demonstrate that there are large discrepancies in the behaviour of daily average and three-hourly wind speed records. The validation procedure based on out-of-sample observations reflects that the proposed model is reliable and can be used for various practical applications, like, for instance, weather prediction, pricing of financial wind cont…
Optimal designs for a one-way layout with covariates
2000
Abstract For the general class of Φ q -criteria optimal designs are characterized which reflect the inherent symmetry in a one-way layout with covariates. In particular, the eigenvalues of the covariance matrices are related to those in suitably chosen marginal models depending on the underlying interaction structure.
Tests of Linearity, Multivariate Normality and the Adequacy of Linear Scores
1994
After some discussion of the purposes of testing multivariate normality, the paper concentrates on two different approaches to testing linearity: on repeated regression tests of non-linearity and on exploiting properties of a dichotomized normal distribution. Regression tests of linearity are used to examine the adequacy of linear scoring systems for explanatory variables, initially recorded on an ordinal scale. Examples from recent psychological and medical research are given in which the methods have led to some insight into subject-matter.
Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for a joint model for prostate cancer risk and longitudinal prostate-specific antigen data
2015
The paper describes the use of frequentist and Bayesian shared-parameter joint models of longitudinal measurements of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and the risk of prostate cancer (PCa). The motivating dataset corresponds to the screening arm of the Spanish branch of the European Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer study. The results show that PSA is highly associated with the risk of being diagnosed with PCa and that there is an age-varying effect of PSA on PCa risk. Both the frequentist and Bayesian paradigms produced very close parameter estimates and subsequent 95% confidence and credibility intervals. Dynamic estimations of disease-free probabilities obtained using Bayesian infe…
Non-parametric Estimation of the Death Rate in Branching Diffusions
2002
We consider finite systems of diffusing particles in R with branching and immigration. Branching of particles occurs at position dependent rate. Under ergodicity assumptions, we estimate the position-dependent branching rate based on the observation of the particle process over a time interval [0, t]. Asymptotics are taken as t → ∞. We introduce a kernel-type procedure and discuss its asymptotic properties with the help of the local time for the particle configuration. We compute the minimax rate of convergence in squared-error loss over a range of Holder classes and show that our estimator is asymptotically optimal.
Designing and pricing guarantee options in defined contribution pension plans
2015
Abstract The shift from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution (DC) is pervasive among pension funds, due to demographic changes and macroeconomic pressures. In DB all risks are borne by the provider, while in plain vanilla DC all risks are borne by the beneficiary. However, for DC to provide income security some kind of guarantee is required. A minimum guarantee clause can be modeled as a put option written on some underlying reference portfolio and we develop a discrete model that selects the reference portfolio to minimize the cost of a guarantee. While the relation DB–DC is typically viewed as a binary one, the model shows how to price a wide range of guarantees creating a continu…
Haldane Model at finite temperature
2019
We consider the Haldane model, a 2D topological insulator whose phase is defined by the Chern number. We study its phases as temperature varies by means of the Uhlmann number, a finite temperature generalization of the Chern number. Because of the relation between the Uhlmann number and the dynamical transverse conductivity of the system, we evaluate also the conductivity of the model. This analysis does not show any sign of a phase transition induced by the temperature, nonetheless it gives a better understanding of the fate of the topological phase with the increase of the temperature, and it provides another example of the usefulness of the Uhlmann number as a novel tool to study topolog…
Fisher Renormalization for Logarithmic Corrections
2008
For continuous phase transitions characterized by power-law divergences, Fisher renormalization prescribes how to obtain the critical exponents for a system under constraint from their ideal counterparts. In statistical mechanics, such ideal behaviour at phase transitions is frequently modified by multiplicative logarithmic corrections. Here, Fisher renormalization for the exponents of these logarithms is developed in a general manner. As for the leading exponents, Fisher renormalization at the logarithmic level is seen to be involutory and the renormalized exponents obey the same scaling relations as their ideal analogs. The scheme is tested in lattice animals and the Yang-Lee problem at t…